Raisin Market Holds Steady: Price Pressures & Quality Concerns Define Outlook

After a turbulent year of unmet expectations, the global raisin market enters 2026 with tempered hopes and a notable sense of realism. Producers and exporters alike watched their $5/kg price hopes evaporate, settling instead for a more modest €2.50/kg by year-end. The shortfall reflects a convergence of organic production swings, persistent quality issues, and exporter missteps that left all value chain participants shouldering the burden equally. Exports slowed significantly with the approach of December, as European buyers deferred fresh orders for the post-holiday period, temporarily muting demand. Meanwhile, with the supply chain grappling with tightened margins, both buyers and sellers are recalibrating their 2026 strategies. Market participants agree that prices are likely to remain stable in the near term, even as underlying fundamentals suggest plenty of uncertainty for the year ahead.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Grade	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Market Sentiment	Offer Link
Turkey	Sultanas, Type 9	RTU	Malatya	CIF	2.40	2.40	0%	Stable	View
Turkey	Sultanas, Type 9	Grade A	Malatya	FOB	3.20	3.20	0%	Stable	View
Turkey	Sultanas, Type 8	Grade A	Malatya	FOB	3.15	3.15	0%	Stable	View
China	Sultanas, Type 9	RTU Std	Hamburg	FCA	2.08	2.09	-0.5%	Weak	View
India	Golden	Grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	2.00	2.02	-1.0%	Weak	View
India	Brown	Grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.54	1.56	-1.3%	Weak	View
India	Black	Grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.50	1.52	-1.3%	Weak	View
Turkey	Sultanas, Type 9	RTU	Dordrecht	FCA	2.85	2.85	0%	Stable	View

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Production: 2025 saw production in Turkey and India broadly meet expectations, yet organic segment and quality issues created disruptions. Turkish producers have faced elevated costs, with minimal relief from export demand.
• Demand: Importers (particularly in Europe) paused orders in December, likely to resume in January. Export sales in December were slack, leaving stocks at origin elevated heading into the new year.
• Exports: Turkish and Chinese raisins encountered slow offtake; Indian offers have softened slightly in response to weaker demand.

📊 Fundamentals

• Prices settle below target: Hopes for €5/kg proved unrealistic—closing the year at €2.50/kg for key Turkish origins.
• Quality and organic supply: Issues with organic crops and general quality continue to impact producer and supplier margins, particularly for high-end markets.
• Costs & Margin Squeeze: Both producers and exporters have limited ability to pass on elevated costs, squeezing margins and prolonging the low-price environment.
• Speculator Activity: No significant speculative build-up noted this period.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Turkey (Aegean): Current seasonal forecasts show mild temperatures and below-average rainfall. No frost events are forecasted, so disease risk remains moderate, supporting healthy vineyards into late winter.
• India (Maharashtra): Typical dry season conditions expected. No indications of severe weather events that might influence the next crop cycle.
• Chile: Favorable conditions have returned after patchy rains in early autumn; production risks are minimal at this point.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Latest Production (2025)	Key Stock Trends
Turkey	Above average	Stocks moderately elevated after slow Q4 exports
India	Average	Inventory buildup as demand softens
China	Consistent	Steady stocks; stable exports to Europe
Chile	Stable	In line with previous years

📆 Forecast & Trading Outlook

• Expect prices to remain broadly stable through January as bulk buyers return post-holidays.
• Watch for renewed export activity in Europe in Q1 2026; potential for mild price firming if inventories clear faster than expected.
• Quality/organic premium may widen if growing weather remains ideal and supply tightens.
• Market risks: Persistent quality/organic issues or shipping disruptions could spark local price volatility.
• Recommendation: Buyers should consider covering forward needs at current prices, while sellers are advised to monitor inventory closely and avoid overcommitting.

3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast (24h)	Forecast (48h)	Forecast (72h)
Malatya (TR) CIF Sultana 9 RTU	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40
Malatya (TR) FOB Sultana 9 Grade A	3.20	3.20	3.20	3.20
Dordrecht (NL) FCA Sultana 9 RTU	2.85	2.85	2.85	2.85
Hamburg (DE) FCA Sultana 9 STD	2.08	2.08	2.08	2.08
New Delhi (IN) FOB Golden AA	2.00	2.00	2.00	2.00