Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Chinese Supply Rebounds, India Tightens

Raisin prices across key origins are broadly stable to slightly firmer, with China-origin sultanas edging higher into Europe while Turkish and Indian offers consolidate at elevated levels. Tight global seedless raisin supply, weather-related damage in India and Turkey, and a gradual rebound in Chinese production are keeping a solid floor under the market. For buyers in China and Europe, current quotes suggest limited downside near term and a need for disciplined, phased coverage.

At the same time, macro conditions are relatively supportive for raisins. Global output of seedless raisins is projected to fall around 7% in 2025 due to Northern Hemisphere weather stress, even as demand from bakery, confectionery and snack industries holds up, especially in Asia and the Middle East. Turkey remains the anchor exporter, but weak 2025 crops and farmer stock-holding limit aggressive discounting. India faces export constraints after unseasonal rains damaged the grape crop in Maharashtra, the country’s key raisin belt, while China’s Xinjiang region is normalising after last year’s heat but still navigating short-term cold waves and climatic volatility. Against this backdrop, current price stability in March 2026 looks more like a consolidation pause than the start of a sustained downturn.

📈 Prices – Snapshot (All in EUR)

Origin	Location / Term	Type	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Change (EUR/kg)	Change (%)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
China	DE Hamburg, FCA	Sultanas, type 9, RTU, STD	2.23	2.21	+0.02	+0.9%	2026-03-16	Firm, mildly bullish
China	NL Dordrecht, FCA	Sultanas, std, no.9, grade AA	2.20	2.20	0.00	0.0%	2026-03-13	Stable
India	IN New Delhi, FOB	Golden, grade AA	2.33	2.31	+0.02	+0.9%	2026-03-13	Firm, supply constrained
India	IN New Delhi, FOB	Brown, grade AA	1.88	1.86	+0.02	+1.1%	2026-03-13	Firm
India	IN New Delhi, FOB	Black, grade AA	1.82	1.80	+0.02	+1.1%	2026-03-13	Firm
Turkey	TR Malatya, FOB	Sultanas, type 8, grade A	2.25	2.25	0.00	0.0%	2026-03-10	Stable after correction
Turkey	TR Malatya, FOB	Sultanas, type 9, grade A	2.28	2.28	0.00	0.0%	2026-03-10	Stable
Turkey	TR Malatya, FOB	Sultanas, type 10, grade A	2.58	2.58	0.00	0.0%	2026-03-10	Stable, premium
Turkey	TR Malatya, FOB	Sultanas, type 9, organic	3.10	3.10	0.00	0.0%	2026-03-10	Stable, tight supply
Turkey	TR Malatya, CIF	Sultanas, type 9, RTU	2.40	2.40	0.00	0.0%	2026-03-10	Stable
Chile	NL Dordrecht, FCA	Flame jumbo	2.50	2.50	0.00	0.0%	2026-03-13	Stable, South Hemis. new crop
Africa (unspecified)	NL Dordrecht, FCA	Feed, brown	1.95	1.95	0.00	0.0%	2026-03-13	Stable

Note: All prices provided by the user were already in EUR terms or treated as such for this report.

🌍 Supply & Demand Context

China (CN) – Rebounding Supply, Strong Export Momentum

China is the world’s third-largest raisin producer, with Turpan in Xinjiang accounting for over 80% of national raisin output and dominating green raisin production. Recent industry analysis indicates China’s raisin production is expected to rebound to around 200,000 MT in MY 2025/26 as vineyards recover from previous heat-related damage in Turpan.

Xinjiang’s broader fruit sector is in expansion mode: total fruit exports from the region in 2025 rose 33% by volume and 44% by value, with grape export value up more than 70% year-on-year. This export growth, plus a normalising crop, underpins competitive CN-origin offers into Europe, reflected in firm but not spiking FCA Hamburg quotations around 2.23 EUR/kg for standard sultanas type 9 RTU.

Turkey – Anchor Supplier with Weather-Dented Stocks

Turkey remains the anchor of the global seedless raisin and sultana trade, but 2025 production has been cut by frost and adverse weather, with some market research pointing to a decline toward ~165,000 MT and a 7% drop in global seedless raisin output overall. A separate 2026 commodity report highlights heavy frost damage to the 2025 Malatya crop and expects sultana and raisin prices to stay stable through Q1 2026 given reduced stocks.

This aligns with the flat Malatya FOB and CIF quotations in the supplied data. After sharp corrections earlier (visible in February price moves), the market has settled into a narrow band: type 8–10 conventional grades at 2.25–2.58 EUR/kg and organic type 9 around 3.10 EUR/kg, consistent with a tight but balanced export pipeline.

India – Weather-Damaged Crop, Export-Centric Demand

India, with Maharashtra and Karnataka at its core, produced around 0.69 MMT of raisins in 2021–22 and has since expanded raisin-focused grape cultivation, especially in Karnataka’s Vijayapura, Belagavi and Bagalkot districts, where about 90% of grapes are turned into raisins. However, recent unseasonal rains in Maharashtra’s Nashik and Sangli regions have severely disrupted grape cultivation, slashing exportable raisin volumes to around 6,300 tonnes between April and November 2025.

This weather shock, on top of a generally bullish tone in India’s raisin market through 2025, has pushed local prices higher and kept export offers firm despite some logistical hurdles to Europe. The user’s FOB New Delhi values for golden, brown and black AA grades (1.82–2.33 EUR/kg) are inching up week-on-week, reflecting tight availability of export-grade material.

Global Balance

International nut and dried fruit data for 2025/26 show that while world raisin/sultana/currant production is below earlier highs, aggregate supply is still broadly sufficient for demand, but the cushion is thinner than usual, particularly after Northern Hemisphere losses. With Turkey and India both constrained, buyers are leaning more on China and Southern Hemisphere origins like Chile for diversification.

Commodity analysts note that export flows from Turkey have slowed, with weekly shipments running several hundred tonnes below the prior year, while conferences of seedless raisin-producing countries have flagged climate change as a key driver of volatility. Overall, the demand side remains resilient, especially in emerging Asian markets and for industrial users who are largely locked into raisin usage in recipes.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather (China-Focused)

Climate and Production in Xinjiang

Turpan’s Grape Valley in Xinjiang provides ideal conditions for raisin grapes: abundant sunshine, hot and dry summers, large diurnal temperature swings, and established infrastructure like specialized drying houses for seedless white grapes. However, grape and raisin yields are highly sensitive to temperature extremes; elevated heat in MY 2024/25 already dented yields, prompting the anticipated rebound in 2025/26 as conditions normalize.

China’s broader climate backdrop is characterised by increasing extremes: 2025 saw significant drought and uneven rainfall impacting agriculture nationwide, and Xinjiang itself has experienced episodes of both drought and flooding in recent years. These risks heighten uncertainty around medium-term yield expectations, though current guidance suggests a better crop for the ongoing marketing year.

Recent Weather and Short-Term Outlook (Region: CN)

For March 2026, northern Xinjiang around Urumqi has been facing a marked cold wave, with local meteorological services issuing upgraded cold wave warnings and expecting temperature drops of more than 12°C in most areas and over 16°C in Dabancheng. A recent M5-range earthquake in northern Xinjiang near Hutubi was also reported but is not expected to materially impact the upcoming grape-growing season or logistics infrastructure.

Grape-growing hubs like Turpan typically remain in dormancy or very early bud stages in March under a cold, arid desert climate; short-lived cold surges now mainly influence pruning schedules and early sap flow rather than immediate yield. Provided no severe late-spring frost occurs during bud break and flowering, the present cold wave should have limited impact on raisin production, leaving the fundamental CN supply outlook broadly unchanged.

📉 Price Dynamics vs. External Drivers

• China (FCA Hamburg / Dordrecht): Net firming of ~3% over three weeks (2.16 → 2.23 EUR/kg) reflects improved demand for CN-origin sultanas in Europe and stable logistics, supported by Xinjiang’s strong fruit export performance in 2025.
• Turkey (FOB Malatya): After sharp corrections in February from near-3.0 EUR/kg for premium grades, prices have stabilised in the 2.25–2.58 EUR/kg band. This matches external reports that reduced 2025 crops and farmer stockholding are supporting a stable but elevated floor.
• India (FOB New Delhi): All three AA grades show steady incremental gains (~1% per week), consistent with Maharashtra’s weather-driven grape damage and lower availability of export-quality raisins.
• Global context: With global seedless raisin output down around 7% and climate risks elevated, current price stability is underpinned by structurally tighter inventories rather than weak demand.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Outlook (Region: CN, All in EUR)

Given that the physical raisin export flow from China is tied to contracts and shipping programmes rather than daily exchange trading, short-term price moves are generally modest and driven by FX, freight, and spot demand from European and Asian buyers. With fundamentals stable and no major immediate weather shock in Xinjiang beyond a transient cold wave, only minor day-to-day adjustments are expected.

Region / Basis	Product	Date	Indicative Price (EUR/kg)	Expected Move vs. 2026-03-16	Bias
CN origin → DE Hamburg, FCA	Sultanas, type 9, RTU, STD	2026-03-17	2.23	0.00	Stable
CN origin → DE Hamburg, FCA	Sultanas, type 9, RTU, STD	2026-03-18	2.23–2.24	0.00 to +0.01	Slightly firm
CN origin → DE Hamburg, FCA	Sultanas, type 9, RTU, STD	2026-03-19	2.23–2.25	0.00 to +0.02	Slightly firm

These indicative levels assume no abrupt change in CN–EU freight rates, EUR/CNY exchange, or major procurement tenders. A gradual firming bias is justified by tighter global seedless raisin supply and steady import demand, while the current Xinjiang cold wave is not yet severe enough to trigger risk premiums for the upcoming crop.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• EU/China buyers (food industry): Use current stability in CN and TR offers to secure coverage for Q2–Q3 2026 via staggered purchases, prioritising CN-origin for price competitiveness and diversification away from weather-affected Turkey and India.
• Importers in CN: For imported raisins (TR, IN, CL), maintain minimum cover as global inventories are thinner; avoid waiting for significant price corrections that are unlikely without a clear bumper crop signal.
• Turkish exporters: With frost-damaged stocks and stable Q1 price guidance, hold offers but stay flexible on timing to capture any uptick in demand if Indian supply tightens further or logistics disruptions arise.
• Indian shippers: Weather-damaged Maharashtra crops and rising domestic prices argue for selective export commitments focused on high-margin destinations; consider using enhanced storage in Karnataka to time sales and avoid gluts.
• Risk management: Monitor Xinjiang weather during bud break and flowering (April–May) closely; any late frost or heat spike could re-tighten global balances and support another leg higher in CN-origin prices.