Raisin Prices Steady Amid Firm Demand: Market Holds, Eyes on Stability

The global raisin market is currently marked by remarkable stability, underpinned primarily by solid domestic buying activity. Core market sentiment remains firm, with traders highlighting that arrivals remain controlled while demand from retail and festive channels continues at a steady pace. This supportive environment has kept prices holding strong at around USD 4.80–5.00 per kg, as reported by key market participants. Market players widely expect little downside risk in the near term, as long as current demand patterns persist. While fluctuations can arise due to currency moves or weather shocks in major producing countries, the prevailing narrative from the market is one of resilience and cautious confidence.

There has been no major bearish pressure reported, and the outlook remains that of continued stability. This scenario should reassure producers, exporters, and buyers alike, providing a platform for forward planning and risk management. Supplementary market price data in euros and product offers from India, Turkey, and other major origins mirror this solid tone. Overall, the raisin sector is displaying a well-supported, demand-driven dynamic, presenting a mostly sideways market outlook for the coming days.

📈 Market Prices Snapshot

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Date	Sentiment
Golden, grade AA	IN	New Delhi	FOB	2.29	2.25	2026-02-28	Firm
Brown, grade AA	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.84	1.80	2026-02-28	Firm
Black, grade AA	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.78	1.74	2026-02-28	Firm
Sultanas, type 10, grade A	TR	Malatya	FOB	3.00	2.57	2026-02-18	Stronger
Sultanas, type 9, grade A, organic	TR	Malatya	FOB	3.20	3.00	2026-02-18	Very Firm
Sultanas, type 8, grade A	TR	Malatya	FOB	2.45	2.32	2026-02-18	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Controlled Arrivals: Supply remains balanced as arrivals match steady demand, preventing oversupply.
• Retail & Festive Demand: Ongoing demand from consumer and festive sectors is supporting firm prices.
• Stable to Slightly Stronger Conditions: No significant shocks or disruptions noted; trade channels remain robust.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Stable Price Range: USD 4.80–5.00/kg is the baseline, aligning with current EUR/kg spot and forward rates for key varieties globally.
• Limited Downside Risk: Market participants anticipate little chance of a price drop barring any major external surprises.
• No Stock Overhang: Inventories are reported in balance, supporting a sideways price trend.

☁️ Weather & Regional Outlook

• Weather impacts remain a background risk; recent reports suggest no major adverse events in leading producing regions.
• Current crop outlooks in India, Turkey, and the US appear normal, with most areas nearing the end of the post-harvest period in good condition.
• Short-term: Weather remains mild to moderate, so no imminent supply threats foreseen.

🌐 Production & Global Stock Comparison

• India: Robust supply and steady export activity, particularly for premium golden and black grades.
• Turkey: Strengthening prices for higher grade sultanas amid balanced stocks and healthy demand.
• Other exporters: Small price fluctuations in secondary origins (China, South Africa, Iran) are noted but not market moving.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term view: Expect stable to slightly stronger prices given firm demand and limited supply risk.
• Buyers: Secure volumes on stable pricing; no urgent rush but monitor for currency shifts.
• Sellers: Hold offers firm; consider incremental sales if export inquiries strengthen further.
• Risk: Weather or logistics disruptions in major origins could change the tone, so stay alert to local reports.

⏲️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin/Market	Current (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
IN – Golden, grade AA (New Delhi)	2.29	2.27–2.33	Stable/Firm
IN – Brown, grade AA (New Delhi)	1.84	1.83–1.87	Stable
IN – Black, grade AA (New Delhi)	1.78	1.77–1.80	Stable

The market will continue to watch supply flows and consumer demand closely, but all signals currently point to ongoing price stability for key raisin grades.