Raisin Prices Under Pressure Amid Export Disruptions and Surging Supplies

The global raisins market faces a turning point as prices, previously firm on expectations of tighter post-Holi festival supplies, are now sliding in key Indian markets. This correction follows a significant export disruption largely caused by escalating regional conflict in the Middle East, which has led to stranded grape shipments at Indian ports. With around 700 containers of grapes stuck at Jawaharlal Nehru Port, and the risk that these export-intended grapes could flood the domestic market, both grape and raisin prices are experiencing downward pressure. In Indore, the drop has been particularly sharp, marking the biggest week-on-week decline this season.

While Sangli and Indore remain the central pricing hubs, the shockwaves threaten to ripple through both the local and international raisins value chain. Exporters and traders are closely monitoring the situation, aware that a further fall in prices could materialize if alternate export routes are not swiftly established or if geopolitical tensions escalate further. Supplementing this scenario, recent offer data out of India and other major origins (Turkey, China, Chile) reveals a mostly stable to softening trend, with European FOB and FCA quotes reflecting subdued market sentiment. As short-term risks rise, stakeholders must weigh the possibility of even lower prices against potential supply shocks if export channels are restored or weather interventions affect the new crop.

📈 Prices

Market/Exchange	Type/Grade	Location	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Sangli (IN)	All	Spot	USD 3.7–3.9/kg	–	Soft
Indore (IN)	All	Spot	USD 4.2–4.3/kg	↓ (from USD 5.2–5.4/kg)	Bearish
New Delhi – FOB	Golden, AA	IN	EUR 2.31/kg	↑ +0.02	Soft
New Delhi – FOB	Brown, AA	IN	EUR 1.86/kg	↑ +0.02	Soft
New Delhi – FOB	Black, AA	IN	EUR 1.80/kg	↑ +0.02	Soft
Malatya – FOB	Sultana 10, A	TR	EUR 2.58/kg	↓ -0.42	Weak
Malatya – FOB	Sultana 8, A	TR	EUR 2.25/kg	↓ -0.2	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Export Blockages: Approximately 700 containers of grapes intended for the Gulf are delayed due to geopolitical tensions. If this fruit is redirected to domestic markets, expect a further surge in supply.
• Post-Holi Price Correction: Early-2026 forecasts predicted reduced supplies post-Holi, but the export standstill has reversed this, leading to unexpected downward price pressure.
• Purchase Prices for Export Grapes: Exporters paid USD 1.4–2.0/kg for grapes now at risk of being rerouted to domestic outlets, potentially accelerating price declines for both grapes and raisins.
• Demand in Gulf Countries: Sudden halt of exports to major Middle Eastern buyers limits global draw for Indian product, magnifying local oversupply effects.

📊 Fundamentals

• India remains a top supplier, with Sangli and Indore as primary benchmark markets for price discovery.
• Turkey, China, and Chile continue to offer stable but slightly softer FOB/FCA quotes amid subdued global demand. Turkish Sultana prices show notable decreases week-on-week.
• Short-term oversupply risk if Indian export grape volumes are sold domestically, with potential for further price erosion.
• European offer prices broadly stable to soft; no evidence of price rebound in the coming days.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Conditions

• Current Weather: No major adverse weather reported in key Indian grape/raisin regions.
• Potential Impact: If unseasonal rains emerge over the next week, quality losses could develop, but for now, supply side is maintaining stability.
• Turkey/China/Chile: Weather is non-threatening; supply-side changes will hinge more on export policies and market access than on agronomic risks.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• India: Risk of swelling short-term supply due to stranded export grapes, with raisin conversions also likely to climb.
• Turkey: Stocks appear adequate, but soft export prices reflect broader lack of urgency among buyers.
• China/Chile: Supply stable; offers into EU and Middle East continue at market-competitive levels.
• Gulf/Middle East: Import demand unmet due to export stoppages and regional disruption.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers/Exporters: Avoid aggressive spot sales if storage is possible; prioritize monitoring of port clearance and diplomatic developments.
• Importers/Traders: Exercise caution on near-term purchases – further price easing possible if stranded export volumes hit Indian market.
• Speculators: Bearish sentiment likely to persist in the short run; consider waiting for confirmation of export resumption before entering long positions.
• End Users/Food Industry: Opportunity to lock in lower prices at multi-season lows, particularly from India and Turkey.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price (per kg)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
Sangli (IN)	USD 3.7–3.9	↓ (3.6–3.8)	Soft/Bearish
Indore (IN)	USD 4.2–4.3	↓ (4.1–4.2)	Bearish
New Delhi – Golden AA FOB	EUR 2.31	Stable–↓	Soft
Malatya (TR) – Sultana 10	EUR 2.58	Stable–↓	Weak