Raisins Market Analysis May 2025: Turkish Farmers Grapple with Low Prices and Frost Damage
The global raisins market is entering a critical phase as the 2025 harvest season approaches, especially in Turkey’s Manisa region, a key production hub. Despite the imminent new crop, significant stocks remain unsold in farmers’ warehouses, putting downward pressure on prices and stoking uncertainty among growers. Many Turkish farmers had hoped for a price rally to 200 TL/kg, but market reality has been starkly different, with raw material prices languishing between 100–200 TL/kg, well below break-even for most.
This price stagnation, coupled with the aftermath of a severe frost that damaged vineyards, has led to deep disappointment and concern. Meanwhile, local market prices have soared to 400–450 TL/kg, but these gains have not reached the farm gate. Export prices for Turkish sultanas remain stable for now, but with tight farm margins, further volatility is expected as the season progresses. Globally, prices for Indian, Iranian, and Chinese raisins remain competitive, and export figures are steady, yet supply-side risks loom large. The coming weeks will be pivotal, with weather, export demand, and inventory management all in sharp focus.
📈 Raisins Prices: Key Markets Snapshot
| Origin | Type/Grade | Location | Delivery | Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU | Malatya | CIF | 2.40 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 9, grade A | Malatya | FOB | 3.35 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 8, grade A | Malatya | FOB | 3.22 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 10, grade A | Malatya | FOB | 3.82 | 0.00 | Steady |
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 9, grade A, organic | Malatya | FOB | 4.00 | 0.00 | Steady |
| India | Golden, grade AA | New Delhi | FOB | 1.93 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Iran | Light brown, premium | Tehran | FOB | 1.81 | +0.10 | Firming |
| China | Sultanas, type 9, RTU grade STD | Hamburg | FCA | 2.04 | -0.21 | Soft |
| Chile | Flame Jumbo | Dordrecht | FCA | 2.40 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Turkish Supply Overhang: Significant unsold stocks remain in farmers’ warehouses in Manisa, creating a supply overhang as the 2025 harvest nears.
- Weather Impact: Severe frost in key Turkish vineyards has reduced yield potential, but the full impact on quality and volume is still being assessed.
- Export Stability: Turkish export prices are steady, with no major changes reported. However, the export outlook is expected to improve in the coming weeks.
- Competitive Global Market: Indian and Iranian raisins remain price competitive, putting pressure on Turkish exporters to maintain market share.
- Farmer Sentiment: Turkish farmers are disappointed with current price levels, which remain below the cost of production for many.
📊 Fundamentals
- Inventory Levels: High on-farm stocks in Turkey, especially in Manisa, are weighing on prices and delaying new season sales.
- Production Outlook: Frost damage has increased uncertainty for the 2025 crop; pesticide use continues to prevent further losses.
- Alternative Income: Farmers are now collecting grape leaves for additional income, which may help offset low raisin prices.
- Local vs. Export Prices: Local market prices (400–450 TL/kg) are much higher than farm gate prices (100–200 TL/kg), highlighting supply chain disparities.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Manisa, Turkey: Recent frost events have caused localised vineyard damage. Weather forecasts indicate moderate conditions for the next week, with no further frost expected, but recovery will take time.
- India & Iran: Normal weather patterns are reported in major growing regions, supporting stable production outlooks.
- Chile & China: Weather is favourable, with no major disruptions reported for the remainder of the season.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (000 MT) | 2024/25 Est. Exports (000 MT) | Ending Stocks (000 MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 310 | 250 | ~60 |
| Iran | 160 | 120 | ~30 |
| USA | 210 | 140 | ~35 |
| India | 190 | 80 | ~50 |
| China | 120 | 40 | ~20 |
| Chile | 50 | 35 | ~10 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📉 Short-Term Bearish: Persistent high stocks and sluggish export demand in Turkey keep prices under pressure.
- 🔄 Watch for Export Uptick: Export prices may firm up in late May/June as global buyers return and Turkish stocks clear.
- 🌦️ Monitor Weather: Any further adverse weather in Turkey could tighten supply and support prices.
- 💡 Buyers: Consider forward purchases from Turkish origin while prices remain low; Indian and Iranian offers remain attractive.
- 💡 Producers: Delay sales if possible until after the first export price increases; focus on quality and alternative income streams (e.g., grape leaves).
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Origin | Type/Grade | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast Range (USD/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU | 2.40 | 2.35 – 2.45 | Steady |
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 9, grade A | 3.35 | 3.30 – 3.40 | Steady |
| Iran | Light brown, premium | 1.81 | 1.80 – 1.85 | Firming |
| India | Golden, grade AA | 1.93 | 1.90 – 1.95 | Stable |