Raisins market: Turkish weather risks clash with flat prices

Turkish raisin prices remain nominally stable, but farmers face rising costs, weather-related crop risks, and stronger competition from cheaper Iranian product, pointing to mounting pressure on future supply and farm profitability.

The new season in Turkey’s main raisin regions starts under difficult conditions. Persistent rainfall in the Aegean is limiting plant protection, increasing disease pressure and, together with lower temperatures and frost risk, casting early doubt on the 2026/27 crop potential. At the same time, farm input costs – notably diesel – have surged, while raw dried grape prices stagnate. Exporters are keeping offer levels stable and still face competitively priced Iranian raisins despite war-related logistical disruptions. The combination suggests short‑term price stability for buyers but an increasingly unsustainable margin squeeze for growers, with clearer visibility on the new harvest expected only after the end of April.

📈 Prices & Market Levels

Export prices for Turkish seedless sultana raisins are broadly flat in early April. Standard Malatya-origin sultanas type 9 grade A are offered around EUR 2.35/kg FOB, type 8 grade A around EUR 2.20/kg FOB, and type 10 grade A at roughly EUR 2.65/kg FOB. Ready-to-use type 9 CIF offers are near EUR 2.40/kg. Organic sultanas type 9 grade A trade at a marked premium, around EUR 3.10/kg FOB.

In European trade hubs, Turkish RTU raisins are indicated slightly higher, around EUR 2.85–2.90/kg FCA, while Chinese standard no. 9 sultanas hover close to EUR 2.15–2.21/kg FCA. Indian raisins (golden around EUR 2.30/kg, brown EUR 1.86/kg FOB) and Chilean flame jumbo near EUR 2.45/kg FCA add to a broadly competitive global offer environment.

🌍 Supply, Weather & Competition

In Turkey’s Aegean vineyards, heavy and frequent rainfall is currently hampering pesticide applications. This raises the risk of fungal diseases at a sensitive vegetative stage and increases the likelihood of yield and quality losses later in the season if conditions do not improve. A forecasted temperature drop toward the weekend heightens frost concerns for early-developing vines, adding another layer of production risk for the coming crop.

Despite these agronomic threats, exporters are deliberately holding raisin prices stable to safeguard export competitiveness. Iranian raisins, even with exports partially impeded by war-related disruptions, continue to reach international markets at more attractive prices than Turkish product. This caps any immediate upside in Turkish offer levels and reinforces price-sensitive buyers’ willingness to diversify origin, particularly in bulk and industrial segments.

📊 Farm Economics & Fundamentals

Farm-gate prices for raw dried grapes in Turkey are reported around 95–100 TRY/kg, yet production costs are rising sharply. Diesel prices, for example, have increased from roughly 55 TRY to 80 TRY following the onset of the regional conflict, materially inflating vineyard operations and transport costs. Other inputs and general inflation also continue to climb, but raw material prices have not adjusted in step.

This mismatch is eroding growers’ margins and is likely unsustainable if maintained over several seasons. Even if exports expand thanks to competitive Turkish pricing and persistent global demand, stagnant farm-gate prices will deepen farmer losses. Over time, this could translate into reduced investment in vineyards, lower input use, and potentially shrinking productive area or weaker yields, all of which would tighten medium- to long-term raisin supply potential from Turkey.

🌦️ Weather Outlook (Aegean Raisin Belt)

The coming days in key Aegean raisin regions such as Manisa are expected to remain relatively cool but gradually drier. Forecasts for 8–14 April indicate showers easing into a mix of clouds and sunshine, with daytime highs mostly 16–20°C and nighttime lows dipping to around 3–6°C on the coolest nights.

While the immediate frost threat appears moderate, minimum temperatures near or slightly above freezing, combined with saturated soils and prior heavy rain, sustain elevated disease risk. Effective disease control will depend on enough dry windows to allow spraying and on avoiding a late cold snap in the second half of April, when yield prospects become more visible.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Key Dates

Predictions for the new Turkish raisin harvest will only become clearer after the end of April, once the main flowering and early fruit-set stages are passed and the impact of current weather is better known. Until then, exporters are likely to prioritize volume commitments and customer retention over price increases, given strong competition from Iran and other origins.

If weather normalizes and no major frost event materializes, the market may continue to trade sideways through late April and May. Conversely, any confirmed damage from disease or frost could trigger a reassessment of supply expectations and a firmer price tone into the new-crop marketing year.

💹 Trading Recommendations

• Importers/Buyers: Use the current period of stable offers (around EUR 2.20–2.65/kg FOB for Turkish sultanas) to secure at least partial coverage for Q2–Q3, especially for higher grades and organic, which may tighten first if crop concerns escalate.
• Industrial users: Consider diversifying origin mix with competitively priced Iranian, Indian or Chinese raisins where specifications allow, to hedge against potential Turkish supply disruptions or later price strength.
• Producers/Growers: Prioritize timely disease management whenever weather windows permit and document rising cost structures to support future price negotiations with traders and processors.
• Exporters: Maintain close monitoring of vineyard conditions and be ready to adjust forward offer strategies quickly after late-April crop assessments, especially if evidence of damage emerges.

📍 3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

Market	Product	Current Level (Indicative)	3-Day Bias
Turkey, Malatya (FOB)	Sultanas type 9, grade A	≈ EUR 2.35/kg	Stable
Turkey, Malatya (FOB)	Sultanas type 10, grade A	≈ EUR 2.65/kg	Stable
EU Hub (NL, FCA)	Turkish RTU nr. 9	≈ EUR 2.85/kg	Slightly soft to Stable

Near term, the market is expected to remain range-bound, with weather headlines and post–end of April crop evaluations being the key catalysts for any stronger price move.