Rapeseed Market Dips: Euronext & Canola Under Pressure – Is Relief Ahead?

The rapeseed market has entered a challenging period, with Euronext (MATIF) rapeseed futures and ICE Canola contracts both seeing sustained downward movement. This trend is largely attributed to ongoing pressure from weak Canola prices in Canada, which have now declined for five consecutive sessions. Canadian farmers are holding substantial on-farm Canola stocks as they await resolution in ongoing trade tensions with China. Prospects for increased supply hitting the market in January could place further downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, global oilseed markets, including soybeans and palm oil, have experienced volatility. Soybean futures are struggling due to investors unwinding long positions and less-than-expected Chinese buying. On the oil side, palm oil prices saw a mild uptick due to improved competitiveness, while crude oil has rebounded slightly amid geopolitical risks and hopes for economic revival. Overall, rapeseed faces a host of downward drivers but also shows some potential for reversal if demand revives or geopolitical tensions subside.

📈 Prices & Sentiment

Exchange	Contract	Last Close	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Feb 26	454.25 EUR/t	-6.75 EUR (-1.46%)	Bearish
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	450.25 EUR/t	-6.50 EUR (-1.42%)	Bearish
ICE (Canada)	Mar 26	593.40 CAD/t (372 EUR/t)	-6.80 CAD (-1.15%)	Bearish
ICE (Canada)	Jan 26	581.60 CAD/t (364 EUR/t)	-6.70 CAD (-1.15%)	Bearish
Physical Spot Offers (Europe, Ukraine):
Kyiv, Ukraine (FCA)		0.58 EUR/kg	0.00	Stable
Odesa, Ukraine (FCA)		0.60 EUR/kg	0.00	Stable
Paris, France (FOB)		0.55 EUR/kg	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Canada: Large on-farm Canola inventories persist as farmers delay sales, expecting trade dispute resolution.
• EU: Rapeseed processing remains robust but faces competition from plentiful global oilseeds.
• China: Sluggish demand for imported oilseeds; no major purchases of US soybeans reported recently.
• US: Export soybean sales fell sharply (1.106 Mt, -52% week-over-week); total US soybean commitments are 39% below year-ago levels, putting pressure on the oilseed complex overall.
• Palm oil: Malaysian futures saw mild gains on improved competitiveness but remain volatile.

📊 Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Canadian Canola: High supply, slow farmer selling, uncertainty over China trade.
• Speculation: Funds unwinding soybean long positions (-39% YoY sales commitments).
• USDA Data: Export bookings for US soybeans have halved compared to the previous year at this point; soyoil sales exceeded expectations (25,516 t).
• External Markets: Slight rebounding crude oil supports biofuel margins; palm oil retraces on relative value plays.
• Geopolitical Risks: Venezuela, Russia spotlighted, supporting global oil/feedstock prices.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Europe: Mixed precipitation across the northern EU has improved soil moisture, but some regions remain dry, potentially impacting spring planting and yield outlooks.
• Ukraine: Mild winter weather supports overwintering crops so far, but any severe cold snap could threaten stands.
• Canada: Winter conditions prevail, with generally adequate snow cover for soil protection; spring weather will be key for planting intentions and early development.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)
EU-27	~20.2	2.9
Canada (Canola)	~17.6	4.1
Ukraine	~4.2	0.8
Australia	~5.4	1.0
China (Import need)	~6.0 (imports)	n/a

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Stay cautious: Downward price momentum may persist until Canadian farmer selling increases or Chinese demand revives.
• Monitor weather: EU and Black Sea winterkill risks could trigger short-covering rallies.
• Biofuel margins: Keep an eye on crude oil for indirect support via biodiesel demand.
• Speculative flows: Watch for signs of position rebuilding or short covering in the oilseed complex.
• For crushers: Opportunities may arise to lock in lower price inputs given the soft tone.
• Risk management: Consider stop-loss levels for existing longs given the series of contract lows.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Market	Price Trend	Forecast Range
Euronext (MATIF), Feb 26	Soft/Bearish	445–455 EUR/t
ICE Canada, Mar 26	Bearish to Sideways	590–600 CAD/t (364–372 EUR/t)
Ukraine Spot (Kyiv/Odesa)	Stable	0.57–0.60 EUR/kg
Paris FOB	Stable	0.54–0.56 EUR/kg