The global rapeseed market is entering a pivotal stage marked by remarkable short-term stability but longer-term uncertainties. As of mid-December 2025, MATIF (Euronext) rapeseed futures are trading in a narrow band, showing minimal price movements and reflecting the current seasonal lull after harvest and before spring planting. Meanwhile, ICE Canada canola futures are slightly softer, hinting at shifting dynamics in global oilseed trade. Spot physical prices for Ukrainian and French rapeseed remain unchanged over the past week, showing that buyers and sellers are in a holding pattern, waiting for new market drivers such as final southern hemisphere harvest results, updated acreage projections, and – crucially – weather trends across key global production areas.
Fundamentally, the market is balancing between ample current supplies and concerns about weather risks for upcoming European and Canadian crops. Producer selling is light, with many opting to hold stocks in anticipation of higher prices later in the season, especially as dryness and cold snaps are forecasted for parts of Europe. Meanwhile, the global vegetable oil complex continues to find support from tight palm oil stocks and potential Chinese demand recovery. The coming weeks will be critical: weather in the EU, Ukraine, and Canada, as well as acreage decisions in the Black Sea and Australia, could tip the scales. For now, both buyers and sellers should be vigilant, as the current equilibrium could quickly shift with any fundamental or meteorological surprise.
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📈 Prices: Latest Rapeseed & Canola Markets
| Exchange/Origin | Contract | Last/Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext (MATIF) | Feb 26 | 469.25 EUR/t | 0.00% | Neutral |
| Euronext (MATIF) | May 26 | 462.50 EUR/t | 0.00% | Neutral |
| Euronext (MATIF) | Aug 26 | 449.25 EUR/t | 0.00% | Neutral |
| ICE Canada | Jan 26 | 598.10 CAD/t | -0.64% | Bearish |
| ICE Canada | Mar 26 | 611.30 CAD/t | -0.65% | Bearish |
| Ukraine (FCA Kyiv) | Spot | 0.58 EUR/kg | 0.00% | Flat |
| Ukraine (FCA Odesa) | Spot | 0.60 EUR/kg | 0.00% | Flat |
| France (FOB Paris) | Spot | 0.55 EUR/kg | 0.00% | Flat |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- EU Stocks: Supply is comfortable after a solid 2025 harvest, but less farmer selling and tight crushers’ margins keep origination strategic.
- Ukraine: River, rail and Black Sea logistics are stable, but forward selling is limited pending planting progress and export clarity.
- Canada: Canola stocks are expected to gradually tighten into 2026 due to smaller 2025 harvest and strong crush/export pace.
- Trade Flows: EU imports from Ukraine and Australia remain crucial, but Australian pipeline is almost exhausted until the next crop.
- Crush Margins: European crushers are mostly covered into Q1 but watching margins closely after recent softening in oil prices.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- USDA & EU Reports: Projected 2025/26 global rapeseed output steady near historic highs, with EU at 20.2 Mt, Canada at 18.1 Mt, Ukraine at 3.6 Mt, and Australia at 5.8 Mt.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains cautious; no significant net new long/short building on MATIF.
- Inventories: EU stocks elevated but below last year, Canadian carryout shrinking, Ukraine’s pipeline adequate for winter/spring demand.
- Acreage Trends: Early EU-27 intentions indicate slight reduction for 2026, with some areas switching to cereals due to weather and price risk.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impacts
- Europe (France/Germany/UK): Cold, dry pattern forecast for late December. Risks of winter kill for unprotected sown areas; establishment generally good but patchy.
- Ukraine: Mild start to winter with adequate soil moisture; key risks are late frosts and spring drought potential.
- Canada: Prairies see increased snow cover—favorable, but early spring will be critical for new crop stand establishment.
- Australia: Harvest winding down with yields slightly below 5-yr averages due to spring dryness.
🌐 World Production & Stock Comparison
| Country/Region | 2025 Production (Mt) | 2025/26 Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| EU-27 | 20.2 | 3.5 |
| Canada | 18.1 | 2.6 |
| Ukraine | 3.6 | 0.7 |
| Australia | 5.8 | 1.1 |
| China (importer) | — | 2.7 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Cover near-term needs now; monitor weather and new crop acreage plans for mid-term positions.
- Producers: Consider gradual sales into any rallies; tight stocks and weather threats could support prices into Q1/Q2.
- Crushers: Watch margins and recalibrate against SBO/palm oil spreads; consider locking forward premiums if basis firms up.
- Speculators: Market is range-bound, but watch for breakout on any meaningful weather or acreage surprise.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- MATIF (Euronext) Feb 26: 468–471 EUR/t, sideways to slightly firmer on weather risks
- ICE Canada (Jan 26): 595–605 CAD/t, sideways to slightly weaker on macro/trade flows
- FOB Ukraine/France Spot: 0.55–0.61 EUR/kg, stable to marginally higher on thin trading and freight logistics
