Rapeseed Market Trends: Ukrainian Prices Strengthen Amid Global Rally

Prices in the Ukrainian rapeseed export market demonstrated notable resilience last week, with values firming by USD 3-5 per ton. This upward momentum is predominantly attributed to increased pricing activity on the international rapeseed market, where global benchmarks have recently been on an uptrend. Despite this, the domestic Ukrainian market showed no significant price movement, which signals a decoupling between export and local valuations. In parallel, the number of domestic processors actively sourcing rapeseed has declined—a signal that could reflect either tightening margins or cautious procurement strategies amid the shifting export landscape.

As Ukraine plays a pivotal role in supplying rapeseed to Europe and beyond, these developments not only highlight the country’s sensitivity to global market cues but also hint at evolving demand dynamics locally. The firmness in export values, paired with the waning interest from domestic crushers, sets the stage for a market characterized by strong external demand, but tepid internal activity. For market participants, both buyers and sellers, the current environment emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring export flows, port bid levels, and evolving processor participation.

📈 Prices

Market	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Ukraine Export Bids	Odesa & Kyiv	CPT Port	USD 544-553/t	USD 541-550/t	+3 to +5 USD	Firming
UA Domestic FCA (Kyiv)	Kyiv	FCA	€0.58/kg	€0.59/kg	-0.01 €/kg	Stable/Weak
UA Domestic FCA (Odesa)	Odesa	FCA	€0.60/kg	€0.61/kg	-0.01 €/kg	Stable/Weak
France FOB (Paris)	Paris	FOB	€0.55/kg	€0.55/kg	0.00 €/kg	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Export Demand: Ukraine’s increased rapeseed export prices are driven by strengthening global demand, with buyers opportunistically sourcing from Black Sea ports.
• Domestic Market: Flat pricing and fewer processors indicate a subdued local crush sector, possibly due to tight processing margins or an anticipation of higher global prices.
• European Imports: Stable prices in France suggest current import flows remain balanced, though ongoing Ukrainian price firming may impact future competitiveness.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global Influence: International rapeseed prices are on the rise, exerting upward pressure on Black Sea region export values.
• Processor Participation: Declining interest from Ukrainian processors could reduce local competition, potentially favoring exporters if this trend persists.
• Inventory & Exportable Surplus: Stronger export bids may incentivize farmers to retain stocks for port sales rather than supply to local crushers.

⛅ Weather & Regional Outlook

• Ukraine: Recent precipitation across key growing regions has supported crop conditions, but cooler-than-normal early spring temperatures could delay fieldwork and development.
• Europe: Weather in France and Germany has been mostly favorable, supporting early crop development. Any significant deviations—especially drought risks—should be monitored for their impact on EU rapeseed supply.

🌎 Global Production and Stocks

Country	2023/24 Production (est.)	2023/24 Stocks (est.)
Ukraine	~4.1 million t	Moderate
EU-27	~20 million t	Comfortable
Canada	~18 million t (Canola)	Ample
Australia	~6 million t	Moderate
China	~14 million t	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Export market remains firm—Ukrainian sellers should watch for further price gains and manage logistics accordingly.
• Domestic processors in Ukraine may need to revise procurement strategies or pricing to attract volumes back from export channels.
• European buyers should monitor Ukrainian price momentum for potential cost adjustments or changes in import flows.
• Weather developments in both Ukraine and Western Europe are key watch points for yield prospects and pricing volatility.
• Short-term bias favors export-driven strength as long as international demand persists and processors remain less active.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Location	Forecast Range
Ukraine Export	Odesa, Kyiv (CPT)	USD 545-555/t
UA Domestic FCA	Kyiv, Odesa	€0.58-0.61/kg
France FOB	Paris	€0.54-0.56/kg