Rapeseed Market Update: Volatility Persists Amid Production Gains and Weather Risks

The global rapeseed (canola) market is experiencing heightened volatility as traders balance expectations of increased production in the EU and Canada for MY 2025/26 with ongoing weather uncertainties and shifting demand dynamics. While both regions are forecast to harvest larger crops—EU output is set to rise by 2.29 million tons to 19.15 million tons, and Canada by 1.5 million tons to 19.5 million tons—futures prices for the new crop remain 1.4-2.4% higher than last year, reflecting persistent risk premiums. Weather remains a pivotal factor: dry conditions in Germany and planting delays in Canada have fueled price swings, while rains in Ukraine have improved crop conditions but frost damage has tempered optimism. Despite a projected increase in EU sowings, overall stocks are expected to tighten, especially after strong processing volumes in early 2025. Meanwhile, regional production shifts—such as a notable recovery in Romania and gains in Bulgaria, Sweden, the Czech Republic, and the Baltics—are offsetting a slight decline in France. With forward purchasing accelerating in Ukraine and farmers holding back on sales in anticipation of further price gains, the market remains finely balanced. Volatility is likely to persist as weather and yield outcomes crystallize in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange / Origin	Product	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Monthly Change	YoY Change	Market Sentiment
Paris (MATIF)	Rapeseed Aug 2025	€488.5/t ($553.4/t)	-0.2%	+3.5%	+1.4%	Volatile, weather-driven
ICE Canada	Canola July 2025	718 CAD/t ($517/t)	-1.7%	+8%	N/A	Recovering after sharp drop
ICE Canada	Canola Nov 2025	681 CAD/t	+5.7%	+2.4%	N/A	Supported by new crop risks
Ukraine (Kyiv, FCA)	Rape seeds 42% min oil	$0.49/kg	-3.9%	N/A	N/A	Uncertain, sellers cautious
Ukraine (Odesa, FCA)	Rape seeds 42% min oil	$0.51/kg	0%	N/A	N/A	Stable, forward demand
France (Paris, FOB)	Rape seeds	$0.54/kg	0%	N/A	N/A	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• EU: 2025/26 production forecast up 2.29 Mt to 19.15 Mt; sowings up 0.4 to 6 million ha; output remains below 2023 record (20.2 Mt).
• Canada: Production seen at 19.5 Mt (+1.5 Mt YoY), but planting delays and weather risks persist.
• Ukraine: Rains improved crop, but frost damage limits yield potential; forward purchases active, but farmers hesitant to sell.
• Stocks: EU end-June stocks projected at 0.9 Mt (vs. 1.53 Mt last year), reflecting robust processing.
• Regional Variations: Romania (+67%), Bulgaria (+51%), Sweden (+24%), Czech Republic (+23%), Baltics (+19%) all set for higher output; France down 2%.
• Demand: EU crush remains strong; global demand steady; speculative positioning increasing amid volatility.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Output (Mt)	2025/26 Forecast (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Notes
EU	16.86	19.15	0.9 (Jun 2025)	Below 2023 record
Canada	18.0	19.5	N/A	Weather risks linger
Ukraine	4.3	3.7*	N/A	Frost damage, rains help
Australia	6.5	6.2	N/A	Steady
China	14.7	15.0	N/A	Major importer

*Ukraine 2025/26 output subject to revision due to weather

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Risks

• EU: Germany and France face persistent dry spells, particularly in May, risking yield losses if conditions persist.
• Canada: Early May saw rain and cold delays, but improved weather now supports rapid planting and crop development.
• Ukraine: Recent rains aid crop recovery, but frost damage in some regions limits overall yield potential.
• Forecast: Next 7 days see moderate rainfall in Western Europe, continued warmth in Canada, and stable weather in Ukraine—favorable for crop progress but with localized stress risks.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued price volatility as weather and yield outcomes become clearer—manage risk accordingly.
• EU processors should monitor tightening stocks and consider forward coverage.
• Canadian growers may benefit from incremental sales as planting progresses and weather risks recede.
• Ukrainian farmers are advised to watch market developments closely; further price gains are possible if yield losses mount.
• Importers should secure coverage for Q3-Q4 needs amid ongoing supply uncertainty.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange / Origin	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Bias
Paris (MATIF) Aug 2025	€488.5/t	€485-495/t	Sideways/Volatile
ICE Canada July 2025	718 CAD/t	710-730 CAD/t	Firm/Volatile
Ukraine (Black Sea, FCA)	$515-525/t	$515-530/t	Firm/Bullish