Rapeseed Market: Volatility Around Black Sea, Tight EU Imports & Global Oilseed Shifts

The global rapeseed market is showing renewed volatility as traders focus on evolving geopolitical tensions, trade flows, and the tightness in EU import volumes. This week, Euronext (MATIF) rapeseed futures eased after recovering from Monday’s losses, reflecting a balancing act between supportive external drivers and ongoing supply-side concerns. Market attention zeroes in on southeastern Europe, where mounting strains around the Black Sea could restrict exports of sunflower oil and other key oilseeds from Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, rapeseed values are being propped up by robust vegetable oil prices, a trend echoed in firm Malaysian palm oil and higher crude oil prices. However, Canadian canola—closely watched as a bellwether for global rapeseed supply—closed softer ahead of the new Statistics Canada harvest estimates, reinforcing uncertainty over 2025/26 global stocks.

Within the EU, import data points to a sharp 39% drop in rapeseed arrivals year-over-year, intensifying concerns about available supplies as processing demand remains resilient. Coupled with a 14% slide in soy imports and double-digit declines in palm oil volumes, the European oilseed complex faces tightness that may persist into the spring. Meanwhile, a rising Brazilian soybean harvest is drawing Chinese demand away from the US, further complicating oilseed trade flows. Against this backdrop, rapeseed traders are watching weather in key growing areas and the progression of South American harvests, all of which will shape price direction through the next quarter.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Feb 26	€480.25/t	-0.47%	Bearish/Wait & See
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	€476.00/t	-0.47%	Bearish/Wait & See
ICE Canada (Winnipeg)	Jan 26	CA$644.80/t	-0.37%	Bearish
ICE Canada (Winnipeg)	Mar 26	CA$658.40/t	-0.38%	Bearish
Physical	UA FCA (Kyiv)	€0.58/kg	unchanged	Steady/Firm
Physical	UA FCA (Odesa)	€0.60/kg	unchanged	Steady/Firm
Physical	FR FOB (Paris)	€0.55/kg	unchanged	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU rapeseed imports (2025/26 through Nov 30): 1.55 Mio t (-39% yoy) — risk of renewed supply constraint.
• EU soybean imports: 4.97 Mio t (-14%).
• EU soya meal imports: 7.46 Mio t (-10%).
• EU palm oil imports: 1.17 Mio t (-18%).
• Geopolitical tension around the Black Sea adds uncertainty to oilseed/oil exports ex-Ukraine & Russia, supporting regional prices.
• Brazil is expected to harvest a record soybean crop, with January harvest start likely shifting Chinese demand further south.

📊 Fundamentals

• Canola (Canada): Analysts expect 2025 crop at ~21.25 Mio t. Final official estimates are due shortly; a surprise here could jolt global prices.
• Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil futures at two-week highs, tracking global vegoil complex and supported by weaker currency + higher crude oil. Wednesday action: slight pullback.
• Speculative Positioning: Market still cautious given geopolitical sensitivity and pending official crop data.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Western Europe: Wetter-than-average late autumn improving soil moisture but delaying some late sowings; mild temperatures encourage rapid crop establishment.
• Ukraine: Periodic light rainfall, temperatures above average; winter kill risk currently low but persistent rains could complicate logistics and support local prices.
• Canada: Wintry conditions, no immediate concerns for overwintering canola in the Prairies.
• South America: Hot and periodically dry in central Brazil; renewed rains forecast for key states, likely supportive for soybeans, may limit further bullish oilseed moves short term.

🌐 Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	2024/25 Prod. Est. (Mio t)	Stock Estimate (Mio t)
EU-27	19.7	2.3
Ukraine	4.2	0.5
Canada	21.3	2.7
Australia	5.7	1.3
China	13.3	3.5

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect near-term volatility — watch Black Sea news and upcoming Canada crop report for price cues.
• If you are long, consider protecting positions with stop-loss orders ahead of official Canadian harvest estimates.
• EU crushers: Secure cover for Q1/Q2 2026 if import flow fails to recover, risk premium could reemerge.
• End users and biodiesel producers: Monitor vegetable oil markets closely (especially palm and soya oil developments in Asia and Chicago) for hedging or spot buying opportunities.
• Merchandisers: Regional supply tightness favors origin-based marketing; logistics in Ukraine may offer pricing opportunities due to weather and geopolitical disruptions.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Spot Price	3-Day Forecast	Bias
MATIF (Feb 26)	€480.25/t	€478–483/t	Sideways/Bearish
ICE (Jan 26 Canola)	CA$644.80/t	CA$642–649/t	Mildly Bearish
UA (FCA, Kyiv)	€0.58/kg	€0.57–0.59/kg	Stable/Firm
FR (FOB, Paris)	€0.55/kg	€0.54–0.56/kg	Stable

Monitor global oilseed markets as Black Sea tensions, weather, and South American supply will dictate price direction through December.