Rapeseed Markets Hold Steady as EU Inventories Climb and Canola Strengthens

The European rapeseed (Euronext MATIF) and Canadian canola markets are currently navigating a period of relative stability, with prices holding steady after recent volatility and no significant change from the previous trading session. While Euronext front-month rapeseed (Feb 2026) closed unchanged at €471.75/t, North American canola on ICECA posted modest gains across contracts, driven by ongoing demand and supportive oilseed complex sentiment.

Despite overall calmness, underlying market drivers warrant close attention. Increasing EU stocks, steady farmer selling in Ukraine, and stable crush margins have kept pressure on spot and forward prices. Meanwhile, persistent strength in ICE canola contracts reflects tighter Canadian supplies and ongoing export demand. Weather across major growing areas remains non-threatening for now, yet traders are keeping a watchful eye on EU winter crop establishment and Canadian prairie moisture as planting windows loom for early 2026 crops.

Looking ahead, the balance between EU stocks, Black Sea flows, and North American production will set the tone for the coming months. Speculator positioning, biodiesel demand shifts, and weather uncertainties could spark renewed volatility at any sign of disruption.

📈 Prices: Rapeseed and Canola Exchange Snapshot

Exchange	Contract	Latest Close	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Feb 26	€471.75/t	0.00% (Unchanged)	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	€466.25/t	0.00% (Unchanged)	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	Aug 26	€452.75/t	0.00% (Unchanged)	Neutral
ICE Canada	Jan 26	CAD 619.90/t	+1.00%	Positive
ICE Canada	Mar 26	CAD 631.80/t	+0.90%	Positive

🌾 Spot Market Offers

Origin	Specification	Location	Delivery	Latest Price	Previous Price	Update
France	Standard	Paris	FOB	€0.55/kg	€0.55/kg	2025-12-06
Ukraine	42% min oil, 98% purity	Kyiv	FCA	€0.58/kg	€0.58/kg	2025-12-04
Ukraine	42% min oil, 98% purity	Odesa	FCA	€0.60/kg	€0.60/kg	2025-12-04

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• EU Stocks: EU rapeseed inventories remain ample due to large domestic harvests and continued imports, especially from Ukraine and Australia.
• Black Sea Flows: Ukrainian exports steady, with little change in local FCA offers, but potential logistical risks remain from geopolitical tensions.
• Canada: ICE canola strength points to tighter on-farm stocks after recent robust export flows to China, the EU, and Mexico.
• Biodiesel Sector: Steady EU demand for rapeseed oil in biofuel applications; any policy or margin changes could quickly shift demand.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• USDA/WASDE Reports: No recent surprise revisions to major oilseed balances. Global rapeseed/canola output projected flat to slightly lower y/y for 2025/26.
• EU Acreage: Recent sowing data from France and Germany confirms area expansion, but emergence rates vary due to early-season dryness.
• Speculative Positions: Funds remain largely on the sidelines, with light net long exposure in Euronext rapeseed and moderate net length in ICE canola following last week’s rally.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Western Europe: Mild, damp weather persists over France and Germany, supporting good winter crop establishment for rapeseed but raising disease risk in some regions.
• Ukraine: Seasonally cool but precipitation deficits in central regions bear monitoring through winter; adequate snow cover could be critical for spring emergence.
• Canadian Prairies: Mild and dry, with soil moisture below average; this could impede 2026 canola plantings if dryness persists into spring.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Region	2024/25 Output (M t)	2024/25 Stocks (M t)	2025/26 Output (Proj.)
EU	20.5	3.2	20.6
Canada	18.4	1.5	18.0
Ukraine	4.1	~0.5	4.0
Australia	5.2	0.5	5.4

📌 Trading Outlook

• Rangebound action likely in Euronext through year-end unless weather shocks emerge.
• Monitor Black Sea logistics for any fresh disruptions that could trigger spikes in EU prices.
• Bullish risks persist in ICE canola if dry weather in the Prairies worsens. Spreads could widen versus MATIF.
• Downside risk capped by biodiesel demand and firm global oilseed complex, but be alert for policy shocks or crush margin slides.
• Short-term buying on dips (Feb/May MATIF contracts) until technical supports break below €460/t.
• Physical trading: secure nearby supply in regions with tighter spot stocks, especially forward for biodiesel processors.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Contract	Forecast Range	Bias
Euronext (MATIF)	Feb 26	€468 – €475/t	Sideways to soft
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	€464 – €471/t	Sideways
ICE Canada	Jan 26	CAD 615 – 625/t	Firm