The rapeseed market is currently navigating a challenging environment, marked by downward pressure on futures prices, persistent volatility in the global vegetable oils complex, and uncertainties tied to demand and trade policy. On Euronext (MATIF), rapeseed futures slid to their lowest close in two months, with the March 2026 contract dipping below the psychologically important €470/t threshold for the first time since late October. Weak biodiesel demand prospects, as highlighted by the delayed EPA ruling in the US, are reinforcing the bearish sentiment. At the same time, expectations for a record soybean harvest in Brazil and continued sluggish Chinese demand are eroding support across oilseed markets. In Europe, the strengthening euro and robust prospects for the 2026 rapeseed harvest—bolstered by a significant increase in winter sowings in France—underscore ample supply concerns going forward. Despite this, tight EU rapeseed imports, down 40% year-on-year, provide some counterweight, limiting the risk of a sharp market collapse in the near term. The story is similar for Canadian canola, where prices have been pressured by weaker crude and vegetable oil values, and psychological price floors are being tested, raising the stakes for both farmers and traders as year-end approaches.
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📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Exchange | Contract | Last Close | Change | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext (MATIF) | Feb 26 | €467.00/t | 0.00% | -2.0% | Bearish |
| Euronext (MATIF) | May 26 | €461.25/t | 0.00% | -2.2% | Bearish |
| Euronext (MATIF) | Aug 26 | €448.25/t | 0.00% | -2.3% | Bearish |
| ICE (Canada) | Jan 26 | CA$ 596.70/t | -0.23% | -1.6% | Bearish |
| ICE (Canada) | Mar 26 | CA$ 608.50/t | -0.46% | -1.9% | Bearish |
| Physical Ukraine (FCA Kyiv) | Rape seeds 42% | €0.58/kg | 0.00% | 0.0% | Steady |
| Physical France (FOB Paris) | Rape seeds | €0.55/kg | 0.00% | 0.0% | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- French Plantings Up: France’s winter rapeseed area for 2026 up 80,000 ha to 1.34 mln ha.
- EU Imports Tight: EU rapeseed imports down 40% y/y at 1.70 mln t (Dec 14).
- Biodiesel Uncertainty: US EPA delays 2026 biodiesel blending rules, adding uncertainty to demand outlook.
- China Buy-Side Weakness: Persistent low buying interest weighs on global prices.
- Brazilian Soybean Flood: Record harvest expected, boosting oilseed supplies worldwide.
- Canadian Hopes: Farmers remain hopeful for Chinese tariff relief on canola in 2026, but no clear signal yet.
📊 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country/Region | 2024/25 Production (est.) | 2024/25 Stocks (est.) |
|---|---|---|
| EU-27 | ~19.8 mln t | Low (tight import pace) |
| Canada | 18.3 mln t | Steady |
| Australia | 5.8 mln t | Stock draw expected |
| Ukraine | 4.2 mln t | Stable |
| China (importer) | n.a. | Ample vegoil stocks, low new buys |
⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Western Europe: Mild, wetter-than-average winter forecasted for France and Germany. Favors good crop establishment but increases disease risk.
- Eastern Europe (Ukraine): Recurring frosts and cold nights may stress young plants—careful monitoring required.
- Canada: Typical cold snap incoming; snow coverage offers some winterkill protection, but western dryness still a concern for 2026 planting season.
- Australia: Rainfall returning post-harvest, but impact on next crop still uncertain.
📉 Market Fundamentals
- Weakness in soybean and palm oil prices is spilling over into the rapeseed/canola space.
- Refined vegetable oil demand remains subdued globally, especially in biodiesel sectors.
- Currency: A firmer euro is making EU rapeseed less competitive compared to imports.
- Speculative interest has cooled, with funds holding smaller net long positions compared to earlier in the year.
- Physical prices in Ukraine (€0.58–0.60/kg FCA) and France (€0.55/kg FOB) remain stable but face potential downside if futures markets break recent support levels.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bears enjoy momentum as MATIF falls below €470/t; risk of further liquidations if US and Brazil production remain robust.
- Physical buyers may consider securing coverage for Q1–Q2 2026, exploiting narrow basis while supplies last.
- Producers should be alert for rebounds triggered by weather scares or import upswings in the EU, but protect downside risk.
- Watch for potential volatility around US EPA biodiesel ruling timeline and any surprise Chinese procurement ahead of tariff changes in 2026.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Current | Forecast (3 days) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATIF Feb 26 | €467.00/t | €463.00–470.00/t | Soft, downside bias |
| ICE Canola Jan 26 | CA$ 596.70/t | CA$ 590.00–600.00/t | Choppy, more pressure |
| Physical Ukraine FCA | €0.58–0.60/kg | €0.57–0.59/kg | Mostly steady, slight downside |
| Physical France FOB Paris | €0.55/kg | €0.54–0.56/kg | Flat |