The production and export of rapeseed in 2022/23 MY in Ukraine became a record. According to experts, around 3.4 million tons of this oilseed will be shipped to foreign markets. This is 26% higher than last season.
The harvest of rapeseed in 2023 can reach 3.6 million tons
In the new season, the harvest of this oilseed can be even higher than in 2022. But exports have more risks than last year. At the moment, APK-Inform experts are optimistic and estimate rapeseed exports in 2023/24 about 3.4 million tons. However, the pace and volume may be more extended in time than usual. It will depend on a number of factors.
First, the exclusion in the coming months of the main importing countries of Ukrainian rapeseed – Romania and Poland. It should be noted that 55% of the total exports of this oilseed in July-May 2022/23 fell to Romania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria. But at the same time, the share of Ukraine increased to 42% in the total import of rapeseed by the European Union.
In addition, experts expect an increase in the production of this oilseed in the EU. Prices for rapeseed oil are decreasing. The crisis in the biofuel sector also does not give optimism to the Ukrainian market.
More than that, at the beginning of the new rapeseed season in Ukraine, the next prolongation of the grain agreement takes place. It can significantly increase the load on logistics in the direction of the Danube ports and western borders. As a result, it will increase the shipping times.
Old crop prices for rapeseeds in Ukraine are going down every week by 5-10$/t as new crop indications are already arriving at the level of 380-400 $/t FOB Danube ports.