Record Global Wheat Yields Pressure Prices: Analysis & Forecast

Wheat prices across major global exchanges remain subdued as abundant supplies and high yields from South America and Australia weigh on the markets. This season is marked by record outputs in Australia and Argentina, with both countries set to surpass their previous five-year averages. The MATIF (Euronext) wheat futures are flat across all listed contracts, reflecting tepid market activity and a lack of speculative positioning—almost no new short covering or aggressive betting on further price drops. In the US, CBOT wheat has edged lower as weak soybeans and corn prices spill over into grain markets. Meanwhile, cheap wheat from Argentina continues to exert downward pressure, forcing French and German exporters to trim buying prices. Bread wheat in Hamburg fell by €2/tonne to €195.50/tonne and feed wheat prices have softened by €4/tonne in key domestic markets. Risk from Black Sea shipping disruptions is contained for now, but insurance costs remain a concern due to rising tensions. Recent CFTC data indicates a reduction in speculative short positions, suggesting that the bearish momentum may be stabilizing. The 3-day weather forecast points to mostly favorable conditions in key exporter regions, supporting yield expectations. Overall, a combination of ample supply, lackluster speculative interest, and subdued export demand is likely to keep wheat prices under pressure in the short term.

📈 Latest Exchange Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Mar 26	€187.75/t	0.00%	Stable / Flat
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	€190.50/t	0.00%	Stable / Flat
CBOT (Chicago)	Mar 26	517.00 USc/bu	-0.72%	Bearish
CBOT (Chicago)	May 26	526.00 USc/bu	-0.57%	Bearish
ICE Feed Wheat	Mar 26	£166.40/t	-0.60%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• South American Surge: Argentina remains the world’s cheapest major exporter, with production forecasts revised upwards. Buenos Aires estimates 25.5 Mt, Rosario sees potential for 27.7 Mt, and the USDA recently raised its estimate to 24 Mt.
• Australia’s Record Harvests: Western Australia’s output is set to hit 13 Mt, and national production is projected at 35.6 Mt—its third-largest ever.
• Black Sea Stability: Ongoing conflict and attacks near the Black Sea raise insurance premiums for shipping, offering the EU a modest price advantage but not yet disrupting trade volumes.
• Speculative Positioning: CFTC data show a reduction of net short positions among managed money in Chicago and Kansas wheat contracts, implying no new aggressive bearish bets in the near term.
• European Export Response: French and German exporters are cutting purchase prices in response to cheap South American wheat, feeding into lower domestic cash values.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• Argentine average yield: 4.14 t/ha so far; harvest 60% complete.
• USDA US export expectations (latest week): 300,000 – 750,000 t (data pending).
• Open interest in Euronext wheat: stable at 564,062 contracts.
• No new Russian export taxes through December, supporting global supply stability.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• South America (Argentina): Favorable harvesting weather expected, supporting already high yields.
• Australia: Mild corrections in yield outlook due to local dryness, but overall conditions remain above average.
• Black Sea: Mild, stable weather with no immediate threats forecasted for winter wheat establishment.

🌏 Production & Stocks Table

Country	2025/26 Prod. (Mt)	5yr Avg. (Mt)	USDA Dec WASDE (Mt)
Argentina	25.5 – 27.7	20.8	24
Australia	35.6	26.7	35
Russia	~90 (est.)	83.2	90
European Union	133*	128	133
US	50.7	49	50.7

*includes soft, durum, and feed wheat

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Abundant global inventories and solid harvest momentum in South America and Australia favor further flat-to-weak prices in Q1 2026.
• Limited speculative activity and reduction in managed money shorts point to sideways movement near current levels, barring weather shocks or geopolitical disruptions.
• Monitor Black Sea logistics for potential insurance-led cost increases, as this may shift buyers to alternative origins.
• Feed and milling wheat basis values remain pressured. Consider sales on minor rallies; buyers may benefit from further price softness.
• Watch for updated US export and planting data; significant surprises could shift market sentiment sharply.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Euronext (MATIF): €187–191/t (range-bound; low volatility)
• CBOT (Chicago): 510–525 USc/bu (likely sideways/bearish)
• ICE Feed Wheat: £164–168/t (little change expected)