The international red chilli market is showing remarkable resilience, with prices steadily supported by a blend of reduced sowing areas and robust export demand. In India—the world’s leading chilli producer and exporter—farmers in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka have shifted away from chilli cultivation due to last year’s disappointing returns, resulting in notably lower acreage this season. Consequently, the market is experiencing limited arrivals, and traders as well as stockists are strategically holding inventories in anticipation of further price appreciation.
Exporters highlight a marked improvement in orders, particularly from China and other Asian nations, with premium varieties like Teja and 334 in high demand. Meanwhile, cold storage stocks are holding steady at around 1.5 million bags but are not expected to offset the overall tightness in supply. Looking ahead, price firmness is likely to persist given that processors, domestic spice manufacturers, and overseas buyers remain active. Weather conditions, so far favorable across the main growing belts, are an important watch factor that could further influence yields and supply as the new season progresses.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
FOB 4.67 €/kg
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Chilli dried
powder, grade a
FOB 4.42 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
flakes, grade a
FOB 4.38 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Variety | Location | Type | Latest Price (EUR/t) | Previous Price (EUR/t) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole (Bird Eye, Grade A, Organic) | New Delhi | Whole | 4,670 | 4,670 | 2025-10-11 | Firm |
| Chilli dried (Powder, Grade A, Organic) | Andhra Pradesh | Powder | 4,420 | 4,420 | 2025-10-11 | Firm |
| Chilli dried (Flakes, Grade A, Organic) | Andhra Pradesh | Flakes | 4,380 | 4,380 | 2025-10-11 | Firm |
| Chilli dried (With Stem, Non-organic) | Andhra Pradesh | Whole | 2,170 | 2,170 | 2025-10-11 | Firm |
| Chilli dried (Whole, Stemless, Grade A, Non-organic) | Andhra Pradesh | Whole | 2,200 | 2,200 | 2025-10-11 | Firm |
| Teja | Key Mandis (IN) | Whole | 1,800–2,000 (USD) | – | 2025-10-11 | Strong |
| 334 | Key Mandis (IN) | Whole | 1,600–1,750 (USD) | – | 2025-10-11 | Strong |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Reduced Acreage: Key producing states have seen a notable decline in chilli sowing as some farmers switched to alternate crops after last year’s low returns.
- Limited Market Arrivals: Incoming supplies at major markets are subdued, supporting a firm undertone.
- Export Demand: Orders from China and across Asia are up, especially for Teja and 334 varieties.
- Stock Position: Cold storage inventories remain stable around 1.5 million bags, but tightness persists due to delayed fresh arrivals.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Global Inventories: No significant surplus; steady carryover stocks are not expected to offset lower new supplies.
- Speculative Activity: Stockists are maintaining positions, expecting continued firmness.
- Processors and Manufacturers: Domestic buying remains healthy as food companies secure chili for future use.
- Global Production: Most major producers (India, China, Vietnam) report tightness; no large upticks in supply forecasted from import markets.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Recent weather reports indicate overall favorable conditions in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka with timely monsoon rains supporting plant health.
- Short-term: No significant adverse weather forecasted; however, any unexpected heavy rainfall events could disrupt the harvest cycle and quality.
- Long-term: With La Niña patterns possibly receding, near-average to slightly above-average rainfall may prevail over the rest of the growing season.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Snapshot
| Country | Est. Production (2024/25, million tonnes) | Stock Situation |
|---|---|---|
| India | 1.8 | Tight, inventories at 1.5m bags |
| China | 0.5 | Improved buying, steady stocks |
| Vietnam | 0.2 | Tight |
| Bangladesh | 0.15 | Adequate |
| Thailand | 0.08 | Tight |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🟢 Buyers: Consider advance contracts to lock in prices before potential further upswings, especially for premium varieties.
- 🟡 Exporters: Monitor Asian demand closely and prepare for possible short-covering rallies.
- 🔴 Brokers/Stockists: Maintain inventory, as upside risk persists in the short to medium term due to supply constraints and delayed arrivals.
- 🟢 Processors: Secure necessary stocks early to avoid higher procurement costs in Q4 2025.
- 🟡 Risk Watch: Any sudden weather disruptions or geopolitical moves could trigger price volatility; hedge positions accordingly.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Variety | Spot Price (EUR/t) | Expected Range (EUR/t, +3 Days) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi | Chilli dried whole (Bird Eye, Grade A, Organic) | 4,670 | 4,650–4,800 | Bullish |
| Andhra Pradesh | Chilli dried powder (Grade A, Organic) | 4,420 | 4,400–4,550 | Firm/Bullish |
| Andhra Pradesh | Chilli dried flakes (Grade A, Organic) | 4,380 | 4,360–4,500 | Firm |
Chilli market participants should remain alert to crop progress news and shifting international demand as the situation may evolve quickly. The current outlook suggests persistent price firmness barring any major supply-side surprises.
