Rice Futures Edge Lower – Technical Selling Returns After Short Recovery
➡ CBOT rough rice futures weakened again on Thursday, with most active contracts slipping under light volume. The July contract fell back below 13 cwt, and nearby months showed consistent declines, driven by technical selling and lack of export momentum.
📈 Price Overview (CBOT, incl. EUR)
| Delivery | Closing Price | Change | USD/t (approx.) | EUR/t (at 1.08) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul ’25 | 12.91 cwt | ▼ −0.01 | $284.61/t | €263.53/t |
| Sep ’25 | 13.10 cwt | ▲ +0.01 | $288.72/t | €267.26/t |
| Nov ’25 | 13.26 cwt | ▼ −0.23 | $292.10/t | €270.46/t |
| Jan ’26 | 13.40 cwt | ▼ −0.23 | $295.24/t | €273.37/t |
(Conversion based on $1 = €0.926 / 1 cwt ≈ 45.36 kg)
🔍 Key Market Factors
- 📉 Technical Selling: July and November contracts slipped amid a lack of export-driven support.
- 🌾 Planting Progress: U.S. rice planting remains ahead of schedule with ideal conditions in Arkansas and Louisiana.
- 🌏 Asian Market Stable: No major movement in Thai or Vietnamese export prices.
- 📦 Export Sales Data Light: Weekly U.S. rice export sales weaker than expected – no major tenders reported.
🌍 Rice Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value (USD/t) | EUR (converted) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul ’25 CBOT Rice | $284.61 | €263.53 | Weakening |
| Weekly Export Activity | — | — | Soft |
| U.S. Crop Conditions | — | — | Above average |
💡 Trading Recommendations
- ⚠️ Avoid long positions near-term due to a lack of demand momentum
- 📉 Watch for breakdown below €260/t (technical zone Jul ’25)
- 🔎 Monitor Asia-Pacific tender activity next week for signals
🔮 3-Day Forecast (May 24–27)
| Market | Trend | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT Rice | ▼ Bearish | Weak technicals, no export lift |
