Rice Market Analysis: Steady FOB Prices in India & Vietnam Amid Global Shifts

The global rice market has entered a phase of relative stability, as recent weeks have shown only marginal movement in export offer prices from leading origins such as India and Vietnam. Despite significant volatility in other major grains like wheat, rice remains anchored by secure regional supplies, subdued speculative activity, and resilient trade demand from core Asian, Middle Eastern, and African importers. Market participants are paying close attention to shifting fundamentals, including Indian export policies, Southeast Asian weather developments, and global logistics costs. Notably, strong FOB offers from India—where multiple basmati and non-basmati varieties maintain steady rates—contrast with Vietnamese exporters also holding firm amid stable supply and solid export routes. With global macroeconomic uncertainty, currency fluctuations, and regional climate patterns influencing forward sentiment, the market’s subdued price action is masking deeper concerns about potential disruptions heading into 2026. As we move through December, weather outlooks remain favorable across major rice-producing geographies, boding well for crop prospects. However, traders must remain vigilant for policy shifts or unexpected weather volatility that could tighten the supply-demand balance or spark renewed international competition.

📈 Prices: Latest Rice Market Quotes

Origin	Type	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date
India	All golden, sella	New Delhi	1.00	1.00	2025-12-13
India	Al ısteam, sharbati	New Delhi	0.65	0.65	2025-12-13
India	All steam, pr11	New Delhi	0.50	0.50	2025-12-13
India	All steam, 1121 steam	New Delhi	0.91	0.91	2025-12-13
India	All steam, 1509 steam	New Delhi	0.85	0.85	2025-12-13
India	White sella, 1121 creamy	New Delhi	0.84	0.84	2025-12-13
Vietnam	Jasmine	Hanoi	0.54	0.54	2025-12-13
Vietnam	Long, white, 5%	Hanoi	0.52	0.52	2025-12-13
Vietnam	Red	Hanoi	0.81	0.81	2025-12-13
Vietnam	White glutinous	Hanoi	0.64	0.64	2025-12-13

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India’s Export Policies: Export restrictions continue to shape supplies to key global markets, particularly for non-basmati rice. However, ample domestic harvests, particularly in Punjab and Haryana, support steady export volumes.
• Vietnam’s Steady Supplies: Recent harvests in the Mekong Delta have been robust, with expectations for continued strong output into the new year.
• Southeast Asian Weather: Weather remains a supportive factor, with timely rains in the Mekong Delta and southern India aiding crop yields. Watch for potential late-season variability from El Niño or La Niña influences.
• Stable Trade Demand: Strong demand from Bangladesh, Philippines, and African nations underpins the export market. Importers continue to diversify origin risk but focus on India and Vietnam due to quality and logistics.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison

• Global stocks remain comfortable, with India and China holding over half of world reserves.
• USDA’s projection for 2025/26 puts world rice production at ~521 million tons, with Asia accounting for 90% of supply.
• Export competition between India, Vietnam, and Thailand remains strong, with price spreads narrowing as regional harvests stabilize.
• Philippines, China, and Africa’s import appetite remains robust, but growing self-sufficiency policies in some nations could change flows in 2026.

⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions (India & Vietnam)

• India (Northern & Eastern belts): The India Meteorological Department forecasts mostly seasonal rainfall, with some areas in eastern UP and West Bengal seeing minor flooding risks but no widespread delays to harvest or planting.
• Vietnam (Mekong Delta): Consistent precipitation supports ongoing rice planting and crop growth. Risk factors include possible flash flooding but overall outlook remains positive for February planting window.
• Thailand: Dry-spell risk remains contained with ongoing irrigation support.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks (2025/26)

Country	Production (m tons)	Stocks (m tons)	Export Share (%)
India	127.5	41.2	36
Vietnam	44.5	4.5	16
Thailand	30.9	5.1	13
Pakistan	9.2	1.6	7
China	148.5	111.0	2

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔹 Buyers: Secure medium-term contracts, as prices are stable but susceptible to policy risks or weather surprises in early 2026.
• 🔹 Sellers: Consider incremental sales; market shows little upward momentum but remains underpinned by export and weather stability.
• 🔹 Speculators: Low volatility environment suggests range-trading or spread strategies; monitor Indian government signals for sudden export adjustments.
• 🔹 Importers: Diversify origin to mitigate regional weather or policy shocks.
• 🔹 All participants: Stay alert to climate forecasts and updates on India/Vietnam harvest progress.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (FOB, Key Markets)

Origin	Type	Current (EUR/kg)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Sentiment
India	All golden, sella	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	Neutral
India	Al ısteam, sharbati	0.65	0.65	0.65	0.65	Neutral
India	All steam, pr11	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	Neutral
Vietnam	Jasmine	0.54	0.54	0.54	0.54	Neutral

Short-term stability is likely, with no major catalysts for price swings expected before the next main crop updates in Q1 2026.