Rice Market Faces Mixed Signals: Price Stability Amid Global Uncertainty

The global rice market enters December 2025 with a pronounced sense of cautious optimism, as traders and importers weigh steady prices against a shifting tapestry of supply, demand, and macroeconomic influences. After a period characterized by supply-side shocks and heightened trade policy risks in key producing nations, we are seeing a moderate stabilization of benchmark exchange prices. This is most clearly evident at the CBOT, where near-term contracts maintain a tight trading band and Indian export offers hold firm across key varieties. The sector’s resilience has also been bolstered by improved planting conditions in major Asian origins and robust off-take from African and Southeast Asian buyers. However, the year-end brings continued vigilance, with upcoming weather patterns in Southeast Asia and evolving stock positions in China and India remaining as pivotal uncertainties. As we move into 2026, questions remain around policy interventions (notably India’s potential relaxation of its export curbs), domestic food security priorities, and the prospect of a cyclical El Niño event affecting next season’s crops. Market participants are thus navigating an environment where steady hands and tactical flexibility will be essential.

📈 Price Overview

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	Jan 26	10.12 USD/cwt	-0.03 (-0.30%)	Neutral/Weak
CBOT	Mar 26	10.46 USD/cwt	+0.17 (+1.65%)	Positive
CBOT	May 26	10.73 USD/cwt	+0.18 (+1.71%)	Positive
CBOT	Jul 26	10.96 USD/cwt	+0.18 (+1.67%)	Firm
Physical Market (Major Origins, FOB, 06 Dec 2025)
India	1121 Steam	0.91 EUR/kg	0.00	Stable
India	Golden Sella	1.00 EUR/kg	0.00	Stable
India	PR11 Steam	0.50 EUR/kg	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• India maintains firm FOB prices after a year of intermittent export restrictions. Government stocks remain elevated, and the resumption of limited exports supports global supply, but any further intervention could pressure prices.
• Vietnam and Thailand continue to capitalize on increased African and MENA demand. Both countries see steady shipment volumes, with Vietnam’s paper dried and red rice at the high end, showing price resilience.
• China, as a major importer, is showing stable buying interest post-harvest and has not signaled large-scale reserve releases, adding baseline demand strength.
• Africa and Southeast Asia are expected to remain strong importers over the coming months, as inventories draw down seasonally.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• USDA’s latest report points to a near-record global rice production for 2025/26, but slight downgrades are possible if Southeast Asian weather turns adverse.
• Speculative activity at CBOT is muted, with traders watching for signs of major policy shifts in India and further government procurement activities in exporting countries.
• Global rice stocks remain tight compared to the rolling 5-year average, largely because of strategic stockpiling by Asian and MENA governments.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Early December weather patterns across India and Southeast Asia show moderate precipitation, which is favorable for late-maturing kharif crops and newly planted rabi rice.
• Thailand’s lower northern regions benefit from above-average rainfall, but some Delta areas face flood risks, which could hinder late-season harvest and quality.
• There are no immediate threats of El Niño or La Niña, but traders remain alert—extended dry spells into January could spell additional risk for the spring crop cycle.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	Estimated 2025/26 Production (mnt)	Estimated 2025/26 Stocks (mnt)	Change vs. 2024/25
India	127.5	34.7	↓ (Stocks); ↑ (Production)
China	147.2	105.0	→
Vietnam	43.5	7.8	↑
Thailand	30.0	5.9	↑
Total (Global)	518.5	181.0	→

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Exporters: Hold current offers in expectation of steady FOB prices, but prepare for volatility if India changes export policy.
• Importers: Secure shipments through January to mitigate supply risk from potential policy shifts in India or adverse weather in Southeast Asia.
• Traders: Watch for increased open interest and basis volatility at CBOT as hedge funds re-enter the market in early Q1 2026.
• End Users/Buyers: Consider forward contracts for Q1 deliveries if stock coverage is low; price downside is limited in the short term.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT & Indian Offers)

Product/Market	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Confidence
CBOT Jan 26	10.12 USD/cwt	10.10 – 10.15 USD/cwt	High
India FOB 1121 Steam	0.91 EUR/kg	0.91 – 0.92 EUR/kg	High
India FOB PR11 Steam	0.50 EUR/kg	0.50 EUR/kg	High

Data sources: CBOT, physical market offers, USDA, and regional weather monitoring services.