Rice Market Flatlines: Supply Resilience Tested Amid Weather and Trade Dynamics

The global rice market enters December 2025 with prices showing remarkable stability, even as market participants keep a close eye on evolving supply, weather risks, and policy-driven trade dynamics. Latest export offers from major origins such as India and Vietnam have held firm for the past week, reflecting robust inventories and steady short-term demand. Indian ‘all steam, 1121 steam’ continues at 0.91 EUR/kg FOB, while Vietnam’s premium varieties trade at similar or marginally higher levels. This price stasis, however, masks undercurrents of concern: recent Southeast Asian weather patterns and Indian export policy interventions could yet spark volatility.

Traders point to resilient farm output in India and Vietnam – the world’s leading exporters – as the primary anchor for current prices. Nonetheless, regional weather forecasts suggest heightened risk for localized flooding and unseasonal rainfall across the Mekong Delta and Eastern India over the next week, potentially impacting logistics and the late-season harvest. Meanwhile, global buyers remain alert to India’s ongoing quota management and export restrictions, especially after last year’s abrupt curbs tightened the market. With global wheat and corn supplies relatively ample and weak speculative positioning, the market mood is generally stable – but eyes are locked on weather, policy, and possible shifts in regional demand.

📈 Prices: Steady but Watching Supply Risks

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
India	all steam, 1121 steam	New Delhi	FOB	0.91	0.91	2025-12-06	Neutral
India	all golden, sella	New Delhi	FOB	1.00	1.00	2025-12-06	Neutral
India	all steam, pr11	New Delhi	FOB	0.50	0.50	2025-12-06	Neutral
Vietnam	long, white, 5%	Hanoi	FOB	0.52	0.52	2025-12-06	Neutral
Vietnam	Jasmine	Hanoi	FOB	0.54	0.54	2025-12-06	Neutral
Vietnam	paper dried	Hanoi	FOB	1.86	1.86	2025-12-06	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand: Fundamentals Remain Solid

• India maintains top-exporter status with steady output and large inventories following favorable monsoon weather. Recent export restriction policies remain but quotas have stabilized flows for now.
• Vietnam continues stable production, though Mekong Delta faces risk of localized flooding impacting logistics and late harvests.
• Philippines and China lead import demand, but recent robust harvests in Southeast Asian neighbor countries temper panic buying.
• Speculative positioning remains light in rice futures, unlike in soybeans or wheat, further contributing to flat prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA Reports: Outlook for global rice production in 2025/26 remains strong, with only marginal downward revision due to climate risk in parts of SE Asia.
• Crop Acreage: No major shifts forecasted in planted area in India and Vietnam; Thailand edges up acreage after favorable pricing.
• Inventories: Global stocks seen stable, providing a cushion against minor weather disruptions.
• Policy Watch: Indian government’s export policy and possible changes remain the biggest market wildcard. No new announcements in the past week.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Mekong Delta, Vietnam: Heavy rainfall forecast for next 3 days. Fieldwork, logistics, and late-season harvest could face delays, but no catastrophic flood expected.
• Eastern India: Mild unseasonal showers possible; harvest largely completed in core regions, but some logistical disruptions possible.
• Thailand/Central Plain: Mostly dry, supportive for harvest and transport.
• Philippines: Continued wet season, but rice harvest largely wrapped up. Minimal price impact expected.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2025/26 Production (MMT)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (MMT)	Trend
India	130.0	36.0	Stable
Vietnam	44.3	5.2	Stable
Thailand	31.7	5.5	Slightly Up
China	147.4	104.0	Stable
Philippines	13.1	2.1	Stable

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Maintain current positions. Spot offers expected to remain steady through the week barring major weather shocks.
• Buyers: Monitor Indian export policy announcements. Consider forward positions for Q1 2026 if signs of policy tightening emerge.
• Sellers: Take advantage of stable prices; consider hedging if weather risks in Mekong escalate.
• Speculators: Limited volatility makes rice less attractive for short-term plays versus other grains.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Origin/Type	Spot Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Market Sentiment
India 1121 steam (FOB)	0.91	0.90–0.92	Stable
Vietnam 5% broken (FOB)	0.52	0.51–0.53	Stable
India PR11 steam (FOB)	0.50	0.50–0.51	Stable