The global rice market continues to navigate a period of cautious optimism, with prices displaying steady to mildly bullish tendencies. Recent data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) shows stable to slightly rising rice futures for the coming contracts. Indian and Vietnamese physical prices, particularly for high-quality parboiled and speciality rice, have moved up marginally in the past week, indicating resilience in export demand and possible tightening supply. India and Vietnam—the world’s top exporters—are seeing seasonal firmness on FOB offers, supported by steady buying interest and concerns over weather-driven disruptions in key growing regions.
Meanwhile, global importers remain attentive to developments in the monsoon profile across South and Southeast Asia, as well as to policy stances in major exporting countries regarding potential restrictions or minimum export price schemes. With inventories in some consuming countries running low, the market’s attention is increasingly focused on forthcoming harvest outcomes and the evolving macro backdrop. Short-term trading is underpinned by solid demand, stable freight rates, and speculative positioning favouring a mild upward correction, especially as global fundamentals remain tight.
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📈 Prices: Exchange and Physical Market
| Contract | Last (US-Cent/cwt) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT Jul 25 | 13.54 | +0.01 (+0.04%) | Mildly bullish |
| CBOT Sep 25 | 13.72 | -0.01 (-0.04%) | Stable |
| CBOT Nov 25 | 13.87 | 0.00 (0.00%) | Neutral |
| CBOT Jan 26 | 14.03 | 0.00 (0.00%) | Stable |
Key Physical Market Prices (FOB):
| Origin | Type | Price EUR/t | Weekly Change | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Golden Sella | 1.08 | +0.02 | 2025-06-14 |
| India | Steam pr11 | 0.57 | +0.02 | 2025-06-14 |
| India | Sharbati Steam | 0.72 | +0.02 | 2025-06-14 |
| Vietnam | Long, White 5% | 0.62 | +0.02 | 2025-06-14 |
| Vietnam | Japonica | 0.74 | +0.02 | 2025-06-14 |
| Vietnam | Black | 1.22 | +0.02 | 2025-06-14 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- USDA Reports: Latest WASDE signals lower global ending stocks and moderately reduced output in select Asian exporters, with some offset by stable-to-positive yields in South America.
- Export Policy Changes: India maintains restrictions on select rice exports, keeping global supplies tight. Watch for potential revision based on monsoon outcome.
- Import Demand: Philippines, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East display robust import demand, as evidenced by recent tenders and private-sector activity.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money shows a mild net long bias in rice futures, supporting the price floor.
📊 Fundamentals & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 126.5 | 34.2 | -2.1% |
| Vietnam | 44.0 | 5.1 | -0.3% |
| Thailand | 30.5 | 4.9 | +0.6% |
| USA | 7.2 | 1.1 | +0.2% |
| China | 206.0 | 102.0 | -1.8% |
India and Vietnam, while remaining dominant exporters, are projected to see moderately reduced stocks, reinforcing the firmer tone in export offers. China’s internal stocks continue to act as a buffer but are on a slow decline.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- South Asia: Southwest monsoon in India is delayed, causing dryness concerns in Punjab and West Bengal. Early-season deficits could impact sowing pace and crop development if rainfall does not normalise immediately.
- Mekong Delta (Vietnam): Moderate temperatures and steady precipitation currently support rice growth, but El Niño conditions could still develop, risking late-season stress.
- US Delta: Generally favorable with adequate soil moisture, supporting steady US output projections for 2025.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bulls: Maintain existing long positions in Sep 25 CBOT rice or physical offers; upward risk if monsoon shortfall persists.
- Bears: Watch for sudden government export policy shifts (esp. India) or improved weather, which could cap further rallies.
- Cash Buyers: Consider forward coverage for Q3–Q4 2025 if procurement is critical, especially for premium and branded grades.
- Speculators: Favor limited long exposure with tight stops given weather uncertainty and a strong demand base.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Origin | Today | +1 Day | +2 Days | +3 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT Jul 25 (US-Cent/cwt) | 13.54 | 13.55 – 13.60 | 13.57 – 13.62 | 13.59 – 13.65 |
| India Golden Sella (EUR/t) | 1.08 | 1.08 – 1.09 | 1.08 – 1.10 | 1.09 – 1.11 |
| Vietnam Long White 5% (EUR/t) | 0.62 | 0.62 – 0.63 | 0.62 – 0.64 | 0.62 – 0.65 |
Market remains weather-sensitive. Monitor India’s monsoon and indications from Vietnam export channels for short-term market direction.
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Global Agricultural Production Report – June 2025 (USDA)
Rice Market Review June 2025: Record Stocks, Falling Prices, and Bearish Sentiment
Rice Market Update: Bearish Bias as Prices Ease on Ample Asian Supply and Weak Demand
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