Rice Market Outlook: Rising FOB Prices, Global Supply Insights & Weather Watch

The global rice market enters 2026 with notable momentum, as FOB prices in both India and Vietnam are on an upward trend, reflecting robust export demand and supply-side caution. At the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), rice futures exhibit mild volatility, with the March 2026 contract closing at 9.77 USD/cwt (+0.67% week-on-week), reflecting measured bullishness despite some contracts seeing light pullbacks. Indian rice types “all golden, sella” and “all steam, pr11” strengthened by 2 cents each, signaling price resilience. This uptick is mirrored by Vietnamese varieties, which rose by 2-3%. Market participants remain alert, as recent gains are underpinned by key fundamentals, including continued strong import demand from Asia and the Middle East, weather disruptions in South and Southeast Asia, and tightening stock levels in several origins.

Nonetheless, the landscape is nuanced—ample winter wheat sowing and improving crop outlooks in key wheat exporting nations are helping anchor global grain complex sentiment, potentially tempering rice’s rise. Meanwhile, speculative positioning remains slightly net bullish in rice futures, with investors hedging against both El Niño-driven weather events and trade policy shifts by major exporters. Weather remains a critical variable: expected normal to above-average rainfall in India and Vietnam bodes well for the next crop, but persistent uncertainties—especially around Southeast Asia’s climate—may quickly shift the balance. With global rice inventories below recent highs and key buyers continuing to build reserves, near-term price action is likely to stay firm, barring major demand shocks or sudden policy interventions. Traders and users are advised to monitor origin country offers and logistics closely as the market enters a pivotal quarter.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Contract/Variety	Origin	Type	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Currency/Unit	Sentiment
Jan 26 (CBOT)	USA	Futures	9.41	-1.98%	USD/cwt	Bearish
Mar 26 (CBOT)	USA	Futures	9.77	+0.67%	USD/cwt	Neutral-Bullish
May 26 (CBOT)	USA	Futures	10.03	+0.25%	USD/cwt	Bullish
Rice, all golden, sella	India	FOB	1.03	+1.9%	EUR/kg	Bullish
Rice, all steam, pr11	India	FOB	0.53	+3.9%	EUR/kg	Bullish
Rice, long white 5%	Vietnam	FOB	0.55	+3.8%	EUR/kg	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• India & Vietnam remain top global exporters, with India’s FOB prices rising steadily on robust demand from Africa and the Middle East. Vietnam’s long-grain exports are also firm, driven by strong Asian demand.
• Buyers in Asia & Middle East are actively replenishing stocks to mitigate expected weather volatility and policy risks.
• Global rice inventories are modestly tighter YOY, keeping upward pressure on offer prices in most origins.
• Speculative positioning at CBOT is net slightly long, as funds hedge against further supply risk from changing weather conditions.

📊 Market Fundamentals & External Influences

• Exports: Indian and Vietnamese FOB offers for major export varieties increased by EUR 0.02/kg this week. Indian prices are underpinned by limited stock release and cautious government export policy.
• Policy: The potential for further Indian export restrictions or tariffs remains a wildcard, closely watched by traders globally.
• Pools and Stocks: Global rice inventories are moderately below the 5-year average, with key importing nations (e.g., Bangladesh, Philippines, Middle East) continuing aggressive sourcing strategies.
• Speculation: Investment funds are holding light net-long positions in futures, supporting near-term price floors.
• Wheat Complex Influence: Easing concerns over wheat supply, thanks to strong sowings in major exporting countries, may indirectly cap further rallies in rice through competitive substitution in feed and food markets.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• India: Forecasts point to normal-to-above-average rainfall for major rice belts—positive for main crop development and potential for double-cropping in several states.
• Vietnam: Outlook is also constructive, with stable temperatures and ample precipitation expected to support ongoing sowings.
• Concerns: Persistent El Niño effects could bring sudden dryness in parts of Southeast Asia, especially Thailand and Southern Vietnam, which may impact later crops.
• Global: Crop watchers expect neutral to slightly bullish impact on yields if forecasts hold, but surprise dry spells remain a risk into late Q1.

🌏 Global Production & Inventory Status

Country	2025/26 Production (Mio t)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (Mio t)	YOY Change
India	130.8 (est.)	29.2	-2%
Vietnam	44.8	5.5	-1.5%
Thailand	32.0	4.8	-3%
China	207.2	93.0	+0.5%
Philippines	12.5	1.8	+2%
Global	515.2	170.5	-1.2%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bulls: Upside is likely to persist in Q1 2026—maintain coverage for destination demand, but beware of abrupt reversals if India signals policy relaxation.
• Bears: Take profit near recent highs; monitor for breakout signs from South Asian weather or export policy shifts.
• Producers: Consider locking portions of output at current levels, especially if holding significant unsold physical; stagger additional sales to benefit from potential price spikes on weather or logistics risk.
• Buyers: Secure forward contracts while global stocks are precarious. Monitor CBOT futures and spot markets in Vietnam and India for entry signals.
• Hedge strategies: Use options or calendar spreads to manage event-driven volatility.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Expected Price Range	Currency/Unit	Sentiment
CBOT Mar 26 Futures	9.75 – 9.88	USD/cwt	Neutral-Bullish
India, all golden sella (FOB)	1.02 – 1.05	EUR/kg	Bullish
Vietnam, long white 5% (FOB)	0.54 – 0.57	EUR/kg	Bullish