Rice Market Rally: Price Gains Amid Robust Supply and Trade Shifts

The global rice market is experiencing a subtle but noteworthy upswing as we close out the year. Futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) have seen consistent gains across contracts extending into 2027, with rising values hinting at tightening market sentiment. While global grains such as wheat are facing bearish momentum from abundant supplies, rice is bucking this trend thanks to varied dynamics in major producing and exporting nations. Indian and Vietnamese FOB (Free On Board) rice offers remain stable, suggesting a relatively balanced local supply, but international buyers are becoming vigilant as freight and weather-related disruptions could impact future availability.

Given the shift in global trading patterns—such as China diversifying sources and increased shipments from Argentina—participants are closely watching both speculative investor positions and fundamental cues like USDA acreage estimates and weather anomalies across South and Southeast Asia. The market’s posture is one of cautious optimism, supported by slightly improving prices and steady demand from Africa and the Middle East. As the new year approaches, traders, purchasers, and producers should prepare for continued price volatility driven by seasonal weather, policy changes, and speculative flows seen in comparable markets like wheat and corn.

📈 Rice Prices: CBOT & FOB Overview

Contract	Closing Price (USD/cwt)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
Jan 26	9.79	+2.19%	Bullish
Mar 26	10.14	+2.27%	Bullish
May 26	10.42	+2.21%	Bullish
Jul 26	10.70	+2.15%	Bullish
Sep 26	10.93	+2.29%	Bullish
Nov 26	11.23	+2.23%	Bullish

 

Type	Origin	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Prev.	Update Date
all golden, sella	IN	1.00	1.00	2025-12-13
al ısteam, sharbati	IN	0.65	0.65	2025-12-13
all steam, pr11	IN	0.50	0.50	2025-12-13
white sella, 1121 creamy	IN	0.84	0.84	2025-12-13
long, white, 5%	VN	0.52	0.52	2025-12-13
Jasmine	VN	0.54	0.54	2025-12-13

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Steady Demand: Global demand remains robust, particularly from West Africa, Middle East, and Asia.
• Trade Shifts: India remains a major exporter but faces scrutiny over climate unpredictability. Vietnam maintains stable pricing, while disruptions in Black Sea region wheat shipments indirectly boost rice appeal.
• Speculation: Commodity funds show renewed bullishness in CBOT rice, trimming short positions, echoing the pattern seen in wheat futures but with less intensity.
• Policy & Logistics: No significant export restrictions are reported in main origins, yet logistical costs due to Red Sea tensions and insurance premiums for shipments could affect future prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Inventory Snapshot

• India: Despite weather uncertainties, high inventory and government intervention ensure supply stability.
• Vietnam & Thailand: Favorable weather and new crop arrivals support stable FOB offerings. Export pace is consistent but could react swiftly to regional policy shifts.
• Global Outlook: The USDA estimates world rice inventories to close slightly higher YoY, though stocks-to-use ratios remain historically tight.
• Importers: China, Philippines, and Nigeria continue to set the tone on the demand side, with China diversifying away from traditional sources.

☀️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• India & Bangladesh: Forecasts suggest mostly dry weather, ideal for harvesting in the South but raising concerns about next season’s sowing if the dry spell persists. Watch for El Niño-related uncertainties as late-season rainfall patterns become less predictable.
• Vietnam & Thailand: Stable weather, with some regions experiencing above-average night temperatures but not threatening current crops. Localized flooding risks remain moderate.
• US Gulf: No immediate threats; mild temperatures support fieldwork and storage stability.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks: Major Players

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	Stock Change	Exports (Mt)
India	127	-3%	20
China	149	+2%	2
Vietnam	44	0%	8
Thailand	31	-1%	8
Pakistan	9	+2%	5
US	7	+1%	2.5

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term bullish bias on CBOT rice with rising US and Asian FOB offers.
• Monitor Indian and Thai weather as protracted dryness could trigger fresh volatility.
• Buyers should lock in Q1 and Q2 contracts to hedge against logistical risk and freight surcharges.
• Producers/exporters to exploit current price strength and consider pre-sales for H1 2025.
• Keep abreast of China’s ongoing diversification in supply sources and possible regulatory shifts in India.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT & Major FOB)

Exchange/Market	Last Close	Forecast Range	Currency
CBOT Jan 26	9.79	9.75 – 10.05	USD/cwt
IN Golden, Sella (FOB)	1.00	0.99 – 1.02	EUR/kg
VN Long White, 5% (FOB)	0.52	0.51 – 0.53	EUR/kg