The global rice market stands at a delicate balance as 2025 draws to a close. In recent weeks, prices have exhibited resilience on key markets, driven by firm demand in major importing countries, ongoing shipping uncertainties in Asia due to El Niño-linked drought risks, and tight policy environments in top exporting nations such as India and Vietnam. Despite these challenges, the rice market remains relatively stable compared to more volatile cereals like wheat and corn. Supply outlooks from India and Southeast Asia show adequate stocks, but buyers remain cautious due to unpredictable weather and exporters’ policy changes. Meanwhile, the US rice futures market is seeing moderate trade volumes and a broadly neutral sentiment, with little sign of speculative excess. Short-term, weather risks and logistical costs will be the key watchpoints.
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📈 Rice Prices Snapshot
| Exchange | Contract | Last (USD/cwt) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBoT | Jan 26 | 9.51 | +0.01 (+0.11%) | Stable/Neutral |
| CBoT | Mar 26 | 9.80 | +0.01 (+0.15%) | Stable/Low Activity |
| CBoT | May 26 | 10.07 | -0.23 (-2.23%) | Weakening Medium Term |
| CBoT | Jul 26 | 10.34 | -0.23 (-2.13%) | Correction |
| CBoT | Sep 26 | 10.54 | -0.20 (-1.86%) | Correction |
| CBoT | Nov 26 | 10.98 | -0.02 (-0.18%) | Stable |
| Origin | Type | City | Latest Price (EUR/t FOB) | Market Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | all golden, sella | New Delhi | 1.00 | Unchanged |
| India | al ısteam, sharbati | New Delhi | 0.65 | Unchanged |
| India | all steam, pr11 | New Delhi | 0.50 | Unchanged |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Global Supply: India and Vietnam continue to anchor world exports, though India’s export policies remain subject to abrupt changes. Southeast Asian crops are running close to average, but El Niño remains a persistent risk.
- USDA Reports: The December WASDE maintained stable global carryout for rice, noting a slightly higher ending stock ratio due to another strong Asian harvest and steady demand from Africa and the Middle East.
- Speculative Flows: Trading volumes remain moderate; investment funds show low net exposure, indicating little speculative pressure compared to wheat or corn.
- Import Demand: Key buyers like the Philippines, China, and several African nations are maintaining robust import schedules, but most are well-covered into Q1 2026.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- India: Export prices steady amid continued government restrictions, though reports suggest possible easing of curbs in early 2026 if domestic stocks remain high.
- Vietnam & Thailand: Stable output but watching river levels; Vietnam FOB quotes for 5% broken rice hold around $570/t (unchanged w/w).
- USA: US rice futures (CBoT) slightly down in medium/long-dated contracts; export campaign is on track, but increasing competition from Asia observed.
- Global Stocks: World rice stocks-to-use ratio is healthy, supporting market stability barring major weather events.
🌦 Weather Outlook
- India: Rabi rice sowing is slightly above the 5-year average, but parts of East India face below-normal rainfall, trimming late yield prospects.
- Vietnam/Thailand: Mekong Delta reports water levels below seasonal norms; irrigation remains adequate, but El Niño risks persist for late-planted fields.
- USA: Southern states (Arkansas, Louisiana) expect mild weather and good soil moisture for overwintering; no significant cold snaps forecasted.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison 2025/26
| Country | Production (Mln t) | Stocks (Mln t) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 132 | 30 | Large surplus, export policy watch |
| Vietnam | 43 | 7.5 | Steady, El Niño risk ongoing |
| Thailand | 28 | 6 | Strong recovery post-drought |
| USA | 7.1 | 1.3 | Stocks rebuilding from lows |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔍 Buyers: Consider moderate purchases for Q1-Q2 2026 coverage; monitor Indian export policy and Southeast Asian weather.
- 💡 Sellers: Keep offers firm, but be flexible as new crop approaches in Vietnam and India. Macro weakness in wheat/corn could spill into rice.
- 📊 Traders: Spread trades between CBoT near-term and deferred contracts could capture carry if market stays stable.
- 🌤 Watchlist: Monitor rain deficits in Lower Mekong and policy signals from India; these remain the main market-moving factors.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Exchange Price Forecast
| Exchange/Origin | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBoT Jan 26 (USD/cwt) | 9.51 | 9.48 – 9.55 | Sideways/Steady |
| India Golden Sella (EUR/t FOB) | 1.00 | 0.99 – 1.01 | Stable |
| Vietnam 5% Broken (USD/t FOB) | 570 | 565 – 575 | Sideways |