The global rice market is experiencing a pronounced downturn, with export prices in major Asian hubs sliding to near two-year lows. India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has seen its 5% broken parboiled rice drop to $382–$389/ton and its white rice to $375–$381/ton. This decline is fueled by a weakening rupee, abundant domestic supplies, and lackluster international demand. Key buyers like Indonesia and the Philippines are largely absent from the market, having secured sufficient domestic production, while traders in Thailand and Vietnam report subdued activity and attribute price drops more to currency fluctuations and ample supply than to any surge in buying interest. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s 5% broken rice holds steady at $397/ton, but weak external demand is dragging down domestic paddy prices, especially as the summer-autumn harvest progresses. Bangladesh, on the other hand, faces a fourth consecutive year of declining Aush rice output due to erratic weather, raising concerns over long-term food security. With global inventories swelling and another bumper Asian crop expected, industry consensus suggests that while further sharp price drops are unlikely, any meaningful rebound will be capped. The market remains in a wait-and-watch mode, with traders and buyers closely monitoring currency moves, weather patterns, and the release of new crop supplies.
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📈 Prices: Latest Rice Market Quotes
| Origin | Type | Location | Price (USD/ton or USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 5% Broken Parboiled | FOB | $382–$389/ton | ↓ $2/ton | Bearish |
| India | 5% Broken White | FOB | $375–$381/ton | ↓ $3/ton | Bearish |
| Thailand | 5% Broken | FOB | $405–$410/ton | ↓ $5/ton | Weak |
| Vietnam | 5% Broken | FOB | $397/ton | No change | Stable/Weak |
| India | All Golden, Sella | New Delhi | $1.07/kg | No change | Steady |
| India | All Steam, PR11 | New Delhi | $0.56/kg | No change | Steady |
| India | Al Isteam, Sharbati | New Delhi | $0.71/kg | No change | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Key Market Drivers
- India: Weak rupee and abundant stocks are driving export prices lower. Demand remains muted from key importers.
- Thailand: Prices pressured by currency moves, not demand. Export activity is subdued as buyers wait for further declines.
- Vietnam: External demand is weak; summer-autumn harvest is boosting supplies and putting downward pressure on domestic paddy prices.
- Bangladesh: Aush rice output drops for a fourth year to 2.7 million tonnes, raising food security concerns.
- Global: Large stockpiles and expectations of a bumper Asian crop are capping any potential price rebound for 2025.
📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks & Trade
| Country | 2024 Production (est.) | 2024 Ending Stocks (est.) | 2025 Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~130 million tons | High (bulging stocks) | Another bumper crop likely |
| Vietnam | ~43 million tons | Stable | Good harvest, stocks steady |
| Thailand | ~30 million tons | Moderate | Steady output, stocks stable |
| Bangladesh | ~35 million tons | Declining | Weather risks persist |
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Impact on Crop Yields
- India: Favorable monsoon forecasts for June–July should support the next crop, but localized flooding risk remains.
- Vietnam: Summer-autumn harvest progressing well; weather mostly supportive, but Mekong Delta faces sporadic heavy rains.
- Thailand: Normal rainfall expected, supporting the July crop release.
- Bangladesh: Erratic weather and reduced acreage have already hurt Aush output; ongoing monitoring needed for main Aman crop.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Exporters: Monitor currency trends closely; a weaker rupee or baht may further pressure export prices.
- Importers: Consider opportunistic purchases as prices are at multi-year lows, but beware of possible further downside if stocks grow.
- Speculators: Market is range-bound to bearish; avoid aggressive long positions until demand recovers or weather risks escalate.
- End-users: Lock in supply for the next quarter, but stagger purchases to benefit from potential further price softness.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Exchange/Market | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | FOB (5% Broken Parboiled) | $382–$389/ton | Stable to slightly lower |
| Thailand | FOB (5% Broken) | $405–$410/ton | Stable |
| Vietnam | FOB (5% Broken) | $397/ton | Stable |
