The rice market is experiencing a period of volatility, with recent price declines reflecting both a rebound in global supplies and shifting trade dynamics. After months of concern over Southeast Asian weather disruptions and Indian export policies, new harvests and a robust supply outlook have put downward pressure on both futures and physical prices. On the CBOT, rice futures have posted consistent declines over the past week. Meanwhile, FOB offers from India and Vietnam – two of the largest exporters worldwide – also show a downward trajectory for most rice categories. Market sentiment remains cautious as traders weigh the impact of strong Southeast Asian harvests against lingering risks including regional trade policies and uncertain weather patterns for the upcoming planting season. In the coming days, attention will turn to updated USDA reports, expected stock adjustments, and weather forecasts for both main exporters and importing regions. This market analysis will cover the latest price action, supply and demand drivers, key fundamentals, trade flows, weather outlook, and actionable trading insights based on current data and comparative trends.
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Exchange/Origin | Contract/Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT (USD/cwt) | Jan 26 | 10.09 | -0.30% | Bearish |
| CBOT (USD/cwt) | Mar 26 | 10.40 | -0.19% | Bearish |
| CBOT (USD/cwt) | May 26 | 10.64 | -0.65% | Bearish |
| FOB India (EUR/kg) | Golden Sella | 1.00 | -0.01 | Weak |
| FOB India (EUR/kg) | PR11 Steam | 0.50 | -0.02 | Weak |
| FOB Vietnam (EUR/kg) | Long White 5% | 0.52 | -0.02 | Weak |
| FOB Vietnam (EUR/kg) | Jasmine | 0.54 | -0.02 | Weak |
CBOT contracts continued to trend lower, reflecting a bearish mood. India and Vietnam FOB offers are also declining across standard varieties, echoing broad regional supply strength.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Production Boost: Recent harvests in India, Thailand, and Vietnam are robust, lifting global supply estimates and easing upward pressure after last year’s export constraints.
- Exports & Trade Policy: India’s partial lifting of export restrictions increased available volumes, while competition from Vietnam and Pakistan intensifies in key African and Middle Eastern import markets.
- Import Demand: Importers in Africa and the Near East have increased short-term purchases to replenish stocks, but high inventories may curb buying in Q1-2026.
- Speculative Positioning: Funds have trimmed net-long positions in CBOT rice futures following the recent downtrend, signaling less bullish expectations short-term.
- USDA & Inventories: Latest USDA reports expected to show higher global rice ending stocks for 2025/26, especially after Southeast Asia’s above-average harvests.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Major Exporters: India continues to lead global exports, followed by Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan. All report increased exportable surplus for Q1 2026.
- Major Importers: Top importers (China, Nigeria, Iran, Bangladesh) are replenishing stocks, but robust supplies and currency pressures may slow future buying.
- Comparative Stocks: Global stocks for 2024/25 are up by 2% year-over-year; Indian government and private stocks are notably higher than last year’s lows.
| Country | 2025 Production (Est., Mt) | Ending Stocks (Est., Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| India | 128 | 35 |
| Vietnam | 45 | 6 |
| Thailand | 32 | 8 |
| China | 146 | 63 |
| Nigeria | 5.5 | 1 |
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India & Southeast Asia: Monsoon season wrapped up with adequate rainfall, creating favorable sowing and growing conditions.
- Vietnam: Mekong Delta faces mild flooding risk, but overall planting progress is positive. Weather outlook for next 2 weeks is near-normal with isolated showers.
- West Africa: Dry season forecasted to be typical, not threatening upcoming planting. No major El Niño/La Niña impacts expected in short term.
Weather conditions support expectations for stable yields in upcoming harvest cycles, minimizing the risk of significant new supply shocks.
📆 Outlook & Recommendations
- Bearish momentum expected to continue short-term, as harvest pressure and eased export controls weigh on prices.
- Watch for USDA stock adjustments and regional policy updates, especially from India and Vietnam.
- Importers: Consider timing new purchases as prices test support. Ample offers suggest less urgency to secure forward contracts.
- Exporters: Prepare for tighter margins and intensified competition, especially to Africa and the Middle East.
- Investors/Speculators: Flat-to-bearish positioning recommended unless fresh weather or policy risks emerge.
| Exchange/Origin | 3-Day Price Forecast |
|---|---|
| CBOT Rice Jan 26 (USD/cwt) | 10.00 – 10.20 |
| FOB India Golden Sella (EUR/kg) | 0.99 – 1.02 |
| FOB Vietnam Long White 5% (EUR/kg) | 0.51 – 0.54 |
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