Rice Market Sways Amid Stable Prices and Uncertain Weather Risks

The global rice market is currently treading water, with stable but slightly firmer prices on key exchanges and steady trends in both Indian and Vietnamese export FOB offers. Despite recent strength in CBOT Rice contracts, underlying uncertainty lies in shifting weather patterns across Asia, particularly with the intensifying monsoon season in India and unpredictable precipitation forecasts in Vietnam and Thailand. While fundamental data such as global stocks, acreage, and trade flows remain relatively unchanged month-on-month, heightened attention is focused on weather anomalies that could disrupt yields in major exporting nations.

Market participants are cautiously monitoring USDA acreage reports and international trade policies, especially any new export restrictions or tariff changes. Speculators are holding moderate net long positions, but upside is constrained by healthy stocks in key importing countries. In such a balanced market, short-term moves depend largely on precipitation and crop development through early June, with any significant weather shocks likely to tip the scales.

📈 Prices: Exchange & Export Overview

Exchange/Origin	Contract/Variety	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Jul 25	13.63 US-Cent/cwt	▲ 0.01 (+0.11%)	Steady
CBOT	Sep 25	13.80 US-Cent/cwt	▲ 0.02 (+0.15%)	Stable
India FOB	Golden Sella	1.07 USD/kg	No change	Firm
India FOB	PR11 Steam	0.56 USD/kg	No change	Stable
Vietnam FOB	Long White 5%	0.60 USD/kg	No change	Holding

🌍 Supply & Demand Situation

• Global rice demand remains robust, underpinned by steady Asian and African import needs.
• India and Vietnam continue as top exporters; recent Indian policy stability maintains smooth export flows.
• Stocks-to-use ratios are comfortable for leading importers, pressuring speculative rallies.
• Some Southeast Asian nations are increasing strategic reserves amid weather risk concerns.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA Report: No major revisions in last WASDE; US crop acreage steady, South Asian production monitored closely.
• Speculative Positioning: Sentiment is moderately net long; funds are hesitant to add risk amid weather uncertainty.
• Export Policy: India continues to restrict broken rice export,s but no new bans; Vietnam and Thailand maintain competitive pricing.
• Global Inventories: FAO estimates stable end-stocks for 2024/25, with potential downside if El Niño curtails Asian output.
• Currency Moves: INR and VND are relatively stable, helping anchor export prices.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Yield Impact

• India: Southwest Monsoon is on schedule, but irregular rainfall in eastern and southern districts could challenge early transplanted rice.
• Vietnam: Mekong Delta rainfall forecast slightly below average for June, raising moderate drought risk and yield concerns.
• Thailand: Dry spell continuation in key central growing regions may limit irrigated area gains.
• US Gulf: Favourable soil moisture, with planting progress ahead of average and yield prospects healthy.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (mmt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mmt)
India	132.0	32.5
Vietnam	28.2	4.9
Thailand	20.8	5.2
USA	6.9	1.8
China (mainland)	206.0	110.5

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ✅ Buyers: Monitor Indian and Vietnamese FOB trends; secure short-term needs on dips as weather risk premiums may expand in the coming weeks.
• ✅ Sellers: Take advantage of recent firmness, but be cautious of rapid reversals driven by weather or policy changes.
• ⚠️ Speculators: Favour range-trading, but keep tight stops; upside limited without a disruptive weather event or policy surprise.
• ✔️ Long-term Participants: Diversification across suppliers recommended, with eyes on July/August monsoon performance in South Asia.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Forecast Range	Sentiment
CBOT Jul 25	13.60 – 13.75 US-Cent/cwt	Stable/Firm
India FOB (Golden Sella)	1.05 – 1.10 USD/kg	Steady
Vietnam FOB (Long White 5%)	0.58 – 0.62 USD/kg	Subdued