Rice Market Turns Steady: Price Trends, Global Drivers & Weather Watch

The global rice market heads into December 2025 balancing steady prices, stable trade flows, and cautious optimism among market participants. Recent CBOT rough rice futures show little volatility, suggesting a pause in speculative activity as the market awaits new cues from weather conditions in Asia, U.S. export reports, and ongoing global inventory adjustments. Indian FOB prices for various rice grades remain unchanged, while Vietnamese offers continue near recent highs. This calm surface masks complex fundamentals: Asian weather remains a critical swing factor for harvest prospects and logistics, ongoing export policy debates in India keep buyers alert, and global stocks levels are above multi-year lows after a strong harvest in key growing regions. Market sentiment remains neutral to slightly cautious as traders await updates from the next USDA supply and demand revisions and keep a close eye on Southeast Asian weather developments. With balanced fundamentals for now, the market’s mood could shift rapidly in response to crop news or sudden trade policy moves.

📈 Price Overview at Major Exchanges

Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT Jan 26	9.93 USD/cwt	-0.01 (-0.05%)	Neutral
CBOT Mar 26	10.23 USD/cwt	-0.01 (-0.05%)	Neutral
CBOT May 26	10.49 USD/cwt	0.00 (0.00%)	Stable

 

Type	Origin	Location	FOB Price	Weekly Change
1121 Steam	India	New Delhi	0.91 EUR/kg	0.00
All Golden, Sella	India	New Delhi	1.00 EUR/kg	0.00
PR11 Steam	India	New Delhi	0.50 EUR/kg	0.00

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Global rice inventories have stabilized after recent seasonal harvests in India, Vietnam, and Thailand. No major supply shocks are on the radar, but harvest quality in South Asia will be critical for Q1 2026.
• India, the world’s top exporter, has maintained stable FOB prices amid firm domestic demand and continued export restrictions on select low-grade non-basmati varieties.
• Vietnamese rice offers remain firm reflecting solid overseas demand from China, Africa, and the Middle East. FOB prices for key varieties (e.g., “paper dried” at 1.86 EUR/kg) are among the highest in the region.
• USDA reports indicate global rice production is slightly above the 5-year average, with U.S. acreage and yields stable, but trade flows remain sensitive to Asian export policies.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Speculative positioning on CBOT rough rice contracts remains light; open interest is steady, reflecting a wait-and-see stance among large traders.
• Current global stock-to-use ratios have improved due to robust harvests in India and Southeast Asia, but remain vulnerable to any late-season weather events.
• Key importers (Philippines, West Africa, and the Middle East) remain active on the market with no signs of import rationing or demand destruction.

⛅ Weather Outlook (Asia & U.S. Grain Belt)

• South and Southeast Asia: Seasonal dry conditions are forecast through the next 10 days, which is typical for post-monsoon harvest periods. No imminent risk of major flooding, but isolated areas in Southern Vietnam could see above-normal rainfall.
• India: Mild temperatures, minimal rainfall in major growing belts, aiding late-season harvest operations but raising concern for irrigation-dependant regions if dryness persists.
• U.S. Southern States: Stable autumn conditions, no frost threats, and near-average soil moisture levels bode well for storage, logistics, and next-season planning.

Impact: Near-term weather poses limited risk, but any deviation (flooding or prolonged drought) in the main Asian production zones could quickly tighten the global supply situation by early 2026.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2025/26 Output (est.)	Stocks (est.)
India	123.5 Mt	35.8 Mt
Vietnam	44.5 Mt	7.1 Mt
Thailand	33.1 Mt	6.8 Mt
U.S.	7.2 Mt	1.8 Mt
China	147.1 Mt	87.0 Mt

Source: USDA/FAO estimates, December 2025

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Secure forward contracts if reliant on Indian exports, especially for basmati and steam varieties; monitor Indian government export policy closely.
• Sellers: Use current stability in Asian FOB offers to lock profits; stay flexible for any reverse if monsoon rains surprise or export curbs loosen in India.
• Hedgers: Light speculative positioning is warranted until clearer direction emerges from upcoming USDA updates and Asian weather forecasts.
• Importers: Consider gradual coverage for Q1 2026 needs; maintain open dialogues with suppliers in India/Vietnam.
• Watch for any new signals in U.S. rice acreage surveys and Indian late-season weather developments during December.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)

Market	Price Today	Price +1d	Price +2d	Price +3d
CBOT Jan 26	9.93 USD/cwt	9.94	9.95	9.95
IN 1121 Steam (FOB)	0.91 EUR/kg	0.91	0.91	0.91
VN Paper Dried (FOB)	1.86 EUR/kg	1.87	1.88	1.89

Sentiment remains steady as the market heads into year-end, with outside risks being closely monitored.