The global rice market is currently navigating an environment of mounting supply-side pressure, driving prices to multi-year lows across key exchanges. In December, CBOT rice futures continued their downward trend, with most contracts posting weekly losses between 0.10% and 1.64%. The March 2026 contract, for example, closed at $9.64/cwt, an incremental decline suggesting prevailing bearish sentiment. On Euronext, the March rice future hit 185.75 EUR/tonne, its weakest close for a front-month contract since August 2020.
This persistent softness is rooted in a record-setting global crop, particularly in top export regions, and further amplified by currency factors like the strengthening euro. For participants in Asian physical markets, Indian and Vietnamese FOB prices remain steady at recent lows, reflecting subdued export demand and substantial inventories. With the USDA and local agencies reporting bumper harvests and improved crop ratings (notably in France), market participants must grapple with the potential for continued price weakness—unless weather disruptions or policy changes intervene.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Rice
all golden, sella
FOB 1.03 €/kg
(from IN)
Rice
al ısteam, sharbati
FOB 0.70 €/kg
(from IN)
Rice
all steam, pr11
FOB 0.53 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Rice Market Prices
| Exchange/Contract | Last Price | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT Jan 26 | 9.32 USD/cwt | -0.64% | Bearish |
| CBOT Mar 26 | 9.64 USD/cwt | -0.57% | Bearish |
| CBOT May 26 | 9.98 USD/cwt | -0.84% | Bearish |
| Euronext Mar | 185.75 EUR/t | – | Bearish |
🌏 Latest Physical Market FOB Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All golden, sella | IN | New Delhi | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Al ısteam, sharbati | IN | New Delhi | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| All steam, pr11 | IN | New Delhi | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| All steam, 1121 steam | IN | New Delhi | 0.91 | 0.91 |
Full offer selection: see below.
🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot
- Global Output: 2025 is expected to post a new record rice harvest across all major exporters (India, Vietnam, Thailand), following favorable weather and expanded acreage.
- Export Dynamics: Elevated inventories are prompting aggressive export competition out of Asia. EU Euronext rice futures remain pressured by persistent surplus and a firm euro.
- US, EU, India: Record harvests and robust crop conditions (e.g., 97% of French acreage in good or excellent shape).
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- USDA Reports: Recent WASDE reflects ample global stockpiles and higher projected ending stocks in key origins. No tightening catalyst so far.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money has mostly reduced long exposure in rice amidst the downtrend, contributing to further price weakness.
- Currency Moves: A stronger euro (now at a 3-month high versus USD) makes EU exports less competitive, adding to the downward price pressures in Europe.
- Weather/Harvest: India and Southeast Asia report satisfactory monsoon and dry-season harvests, boosting global supply.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India & SE Asia: Current forecasts call for seasonally normal temperatures and precipitation, supporting yield prospects for Rabi crops in India, as well as Vietnam’s winter-spring rice.
- US Midwest: Mild conditions, no adverse cold risk; US Southern Delta rice fields expected to see timely spring plantings if trends persist.
- Potential Risk: Watch for early signs of El Niño/La Niña swings in Q1 2026, which could eventually impact Asian monsoon dynamics.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production^ | Ending Stocks^ |
|---|---|---|
| India | ~130m t | ~35m t |
| Vietnam | ~44m t | ~5m t |
| Thailand | ~33m t | ~8m t |
| USA | ~7.5m t | ~1.3m t |
| China | ~148m t | ~91m t |
| EU | ~2.6m t | ~0.5m t |
^Estimate, based on USDA & local agency data.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Prices remain under pressure; record harvests and sluggish export demand are likely to weigh further.
- Short-term rallies will likely find resistance near prior highs (CBOT May above $10/cwt, Euronext near 190 EUR/t).
- Buyers: Consider opportunistic purchases on further dips, taking advantage of multi-year low pricing.
- Sellers: Hedge new crop supply as a further downside is possible; avoid holding unsold inventory too long unless signs of weather risk emerge.
- Monitor global weather patterns and potential currency adjustments for clues to a potential reversal.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Exchange/Contract | Direction | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT Mar 26 | Stable to Down | 9.60 – 9.70 USD/cwt |
| Euronext Mar 26 | Stable | 184 – 187 EUR/t |
| FOB India 1121 Steam | Flat | 0.90 – 0.92 EUR/kg |
| FOB Vietnam 5% LW | Flat | 0.51 – 0.53 EUR/kg |
Further volatility is possible if currency or weather shifts occur. Monitor export policy and transport conditions as wildcard risks in Asia.