Sorghum Market Tightens: Ukrainian Supply Shrinks, Prices Climb in Europe

The European sorghum market is entering a critical phase as the 2024 Ukrainian crop stocks dwindle to near exhaustion. Only small volumes are left in farmers’ hands, and with expectations of higher future prices, many are reluctant sellers. This standoff is already pushing delivered prices to Belgium and the Netherlands up to €400/t, a strong premium compared to earlier months. Quality remains steady, with Ukrainian sorghum meeting high standards (14% max moisture, 98% min purity).

However, the supply squeeze, compounded by logistical constraints and weather uncertainties for the upcoming crop, is fueling bullish sentiment among traders and end-users. With animal feed and bird feed sectors reliant on these imports, market participants are closely monitoring both farmers’ selling behaviour and the evolving weather outlook in Ukraine. As the market braces for the new harvest, the balance of risk is tilted toward further price support unless new supply comes online or demand softens unexpectedly.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Location	Type	Purity	Delivery	Latest Price	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Odesa (UA, FCA)	White	98%	FCA	€0.25/kg	€0.25/kg	0%	Neutral
Odesa (UA, FCA)	Red	98%	FCA	€0.25/kg	€0.25/kg	0%	Neutral
Delivered BE/NL	Standard	98%	Delivered	€350–400/t	€320–370/t	+8%	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Stocks: 2024 Ukrainian sorghum stocks are almost depleted; only small volumes remain, mostly held back by farmers.
• Farmer Behaviour: Reluctance to sell at current prices, with hopes for further increases, is restricting spot availability.
• Demand: Steady from animal feed and bird feed sectors in Western Europe; no major substitution seen yet.
• Logistics: Shipments continue by truck and sea container, but logistical costs remain elevated due to regional security and fuel price pressures.

📊 Fundamentals

• Quality: Ukrainian sorghum maintains high quality (14% max moisture, 98% min purity, standard colour).
• Global Stocks: Global sorghum stocks are tightening, with major exporters like the US and Australia also seeing lower inventories after strong demand from China and domestic users.
• Speculative Positioning: Limited speculative activity, but physical market tightness is supporting bullish sentiment.
• Comparison to Last Report: Prices have firmed by 8% over the past month as remaining stocks have dwindled and buyers compete for limited supply.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Current conditions are mixed. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture in central and eastern regions, but some southern areas remain dry. The weather in the next 2–3 weeks will be critical for crop establishment.
• Forecast Impact: If dryness persists in key growing zones, yield potential for the 2025 crop could be compromised, potentially extending the period of tight supply.
• Other Origins: US and Australian weather is neutral to slightly favourable; no major threats reported at this stage.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2023/24 Production (Mt)	2023/24 Stocks (Mt)	Change YoY
Ukraine	2.2	0.1	-15%
USA	8.8	0.6	-10%
Australia	1.7	0.08	-8%
China	3.8	0.4	-5%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚠️ Buyers: Secure forward coverage for Q2–Q3 2024, as further price increases are likely if weather risks materialise in Ukraine.
• ⏳ Farmers/Sellers: Consider gradual sales on price rallies, but monitor weather and new crop prospects closely before committing large volumes.
• 🔎 Traders: Watch for shifts in logistics costs and potential substitution in feed rations if prices rise further.
• 📉 Risk: Downside risk is limited until new crop prospects are clearer or if demand unexpectedly weakens.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	Odesa FCA (€/kg)	Delivered BE/NL (€/t)	Sentiment
2025-05-17	0.25	370–400	Bullish
2025-05-18	0.25	370–400	Bullish
2025-05-19	0.25	375–405	Bullish