Sorghum Outlook 2026: Stability in Ukraine, Upside Potential as Wheat & Corn Rally

At the start of 2026, the Ukrainian sorghum market is marked by a notable sense of equilibrium. Sorghum prices remain steady at around 12,500 UAH/t (CPT basis), shaped by the relative calmness and dynamics of the broader grain sector. The market’s main drivers are domestic feed demand and export activity, with pricing intricately tied to the performance of staple cereals like corn and wheat. The anticipated supply shortages for both wheat and corn in 2026 are forecast to provide upward momentum for the entire grain complex—including sorghum. For producers and traders, this stable yet potentially bullish context signals an environment rich with strategic opportunities. In the upcoming months, close attention to the progress of major crops, weather patterns in the Black Sea region, and export flows will be crucial for capitalizing on price trends. Below, we analyze the latest metrics, market forces, and trading recommendations for navigating the evolving Ukrainian sorghum sector.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Market	Type	Purity	Location	Delivery Terms	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Update Date	Sentiment
Ukraine (Odesa)	Red	98%	Odesa, UA	FCA	0.31 EUR/kg	0.00%	2026-02-26	Stable
Ukraine (Odesa)	White	98%	Odesa, UA	FCA	0.31 EUR/kg	0.00%	2026-02-26	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Strong feed demand continues to underpin the Ukrainian sorghum market, as livestock sectors seek affordable alternatives to wheat and corn.
• Sorghum exports remain a key outlet, helping stabilize farm-gate prices even amid variable domestic usage.
• Prices are closely linked with wheat and corn; both are forecast to rise in 2026 due to projected supply shortages, which could provide a positive spillover effect on sorghum values.
• Export competitiveness is supported by Black Sea logistics and steady interest from traditional importers.

📊 Fundamentals

• Sorghum prices in Ukraine are steady at 12,500 UAH/t CPT, with FCA Odesa offers around 0.31 EUR/kg for both red and white types (98% purity).
• Price dynamics remain responsive primarily to changes in the broader grain complex—especially wheat and corn.
• Farmers and exporters are monitoring global balance sheets for cues on shifts in relative value and competitiveness.
• Ukrainian supply remains adequate for current demand, aided by the country’s robust grain infrastructure.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Current weather conditions in Ukraine are neutral for winter crops, including sorghum, with adequate soil moisture in core producing regions.
• Projected mild temperatures in late winter and early spring may support an early start to the planting season.
• Potential risks include late frosts or unexpected dry spells—developments that will need to be tracked closely for possible yield impacts later in the season.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Ukraine remains one of the key Black Sea sorghum exporters supplying both EU and Middle Eastern buyers.
• Global ending stocks are steady, though weather-related risks in the US and Australia could tighten supplies in the event of any major disruptions.
• Export commitments from key producers are being watched for potential shifts in global trade flows.

🔍 Market Drivers Snapshot

• USDA crop reports and global cereal acreage forecasts indicate tightening wheat and corn supplies—spurring potential replacement demand for sorghum.
• Speculative interest in the grain complex is subdued but could pick up if global supply scares materialize.
• Logistics and Black Sea freight situation remains a watchpoint for exporters; smooth operations reinforce market stability.

⚡ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish bias: Should wheat and corn prices rally further on world markets, expect upward momentum for Ukrainian sorghum quotations.
• Producers are advised to watch bids closely, especially if there are signs of tightening in domestic feed wheat or corn supply.
• Exporters should secure forward contracts when possible, leveraging stable price levels and competitive logistics.
• Monitor weather patterns and spring planting conditions for early warnings on new-crop yield risks.
• Importers may consider advance bookings to hedge against upside price risk amid tightening global grain stocks.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Ukraine, CPT/FCA Basis)

Date	Expected Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Market Sentiment
2026-02-27	0.31	Stable
2026-02-28	0.31	Stable
2026-03-01	0.31	Stable