Sorghum Spotlight: Ukrainian Prices Hold Firm Despite Sluggish Demand

The sorghum market in Ukraine currently presents a paradoxical situation: despite persistently low demand, producers are refusing to sell their limited stocks below desired price levels. As the year draws to a close, Ukrainian farmers remain steadfast in their pricing strategies, leading to sluggish sales and a firm stance on asking prices. This tight hold is especially notable for white sorghum, which is quoted at $300/t FCA, with red sorghum trading at a $20/t discount. The motivation behind farmers’ reluctance to sell appears to be a mix of low overall production and the hope for more favorable prices in the months ahead. Although market activity is subdued, the resilience in pricing is creating a unique market dynamic where supply, or rather the willingness to supply, is highly price-sensitive.

The overall grain market landscape in Ukraine is further complicated by logistical constraints, residual impacts from the ongoing geopolitical situation, and uncertain export channels. Furthermore, while global market cues and weather trends are closely monitored by market participants, the local price-setting seems to be more closely tied to farmer expectations than actual movements in international trade or local demand. This report explores the underlying data, key market drivers, and future outlook for sorghum, offering vital insights for buyers, sellers, and traders seeking to navigate the complexities of the current landscape.

📈 Prices

Type	Purity	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/t)	Price (USD/t)	Previous Price (EUR/t)	Change (%)	Sentiment	Last Update
White	98%	UA	Odesa	FCA	300	300	290	+3.4%	Firm/Hold	2025-12-04
Red	98%	UA	Odesa	FCA	280	280	270	+3.7%	Firm/Hold	2025-12-04

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Ukraine’s sorghum acreage remains limited, with relatively small harvest volumes. Farmers show little inclination to accelerate sales, opting to store their supplies until market conditions improve.
• Demand: Domestic and export demand is tepid, partly due to a lack of international price competitiveness and limited market liquidity. Buyers are cautious, hoping for price concessions.
• Sales Activity: Current sales volumes are very low; market activity is expected to stay muted unless farmers lower their price expectations or demand picks up unexpectedly.

📊 Fundamentals

• Key Market Drivers:
  • Ukrainian production limited by acreage allocation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Strong farmer retention, creating localized tightness despite weak demand.
  • International market cues mostly neutral; sorghum not a major trader in most global grain market reports.
  • No significant changes in global sorghum stocks or acreage reported recently.
• Comparison to Last Report:
  • Current prices have increased modestly (+3 to 4%) compared to the previous assessment.
  • Sales volume remains similarly subdued, in line with recent seasonal trends.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Southern Ukraine: Current weather is seasonally cool and dry, with no immediate concerns for harvested stocks. There is no winterkill threat, and storage conditions are generally favorable.
• 2025 Planting Outlook: Early weather models suggest a dry start to the upcoming spring—this could potentially reduce germination if the pattern persists, warranting close monitoring.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024 Production (kt)	2024/25 Forecast Stocks (kt)	Export Status
USA	8,800	1,450	Top exporter
Australia	2,650	420	Major exporter
Argentina	3,000	240	Exportable volume variable
Ukraine	285	35	Small exporter, tight supplies
China	3,900	7,850	Major importer

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟠 Sellers: Hold strategy is dominant—no immediate need for price reductions absent a demand shock.
• 🟡 Buyers: Monitor closely for possible farmer capitulation but budget for no significant discounts in December.
• 🟠 Traders: Arbitrage opportunities limited; focus may be on consolidating positions for spring.
• 🔵 Risk Factors: Disruptions in Black Sea logistics or sudden changes in global grain policy.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Type	Location	Day 1 (EUR/t)	Day 2 (EUR/t)	Day 3 (EUR/t)	Tendency
White	Odesa FCA	300	300	300	Stable
Red	Odesa FCA	280	280	280	Stable