The global nuts market, and macadamias in particular, is entering a season shaped by trade policy uncertainty, shifting currency dynamics, and a nuanced production outlook. South Africa—the world’s leading macadamia exporter—faces mounting challenges as the 2026 marketing season approaches. The sector is contending with highly volatile U.S. import tariffs and a strengthening rand, both of which are poised to drag down grower margins even as global demand trends positively. The U.S. remains the primary export destination for South African macadamias, but a turbulent six-week period has seen tariffs on U.S. imports oscillate—from a one-year AGOA extension, to a brief 15% flat rate, then revised lower to 10%.
These policy swings have made U.S. buyers jittery, slowing sales, increasing carryover stocks, and injecting further risk into future listings. Conversely, South Africa has secured a significant win in China, where a new economic partnership agreement will result in a permanent reduction (from 12% to 0%) of import duties. This should significantly enhance South Africa’s competitive position, especially against Australian rivals still recovering from weather-induced supply drops. However, even with stable U.S. dollar prices, a robust local currency could see producer income fall by about 15%. Projected harvest volumes remain firm but slightly reduced, with the spotlight now on strategic market allocation and disciplined pricing to survive in an environment defined by global trade volatility and moderate, yet persistent, demand growth.
📈 Prices
| Nuts Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil nuts | NL | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 6.50 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- U.S. Market Uncertainty: U.S. tariff instability is undermining buyer confidence and leading to increased carryover stocks of style 4 macadamia kernels for the 2026 season. U.S. buyers are cautious with shifting terms, risking a drop in long-term product listings if market access becomes too volatile.
- China Opens Up: China’s move to zero-duty on South African macadamias provides a vital lifeline. Industry stakeholders expect this will improve market share against Australia and help stabilise global pricing, though implementation details are awaited.
- Gradual Demand Growth: Worldwide interest in macadamias continues to increase at a moderate rate. However, short-term recovery and expansion hinge on stable trade flows and effective marketing.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production: South Africa forecasts 2026 output at 81,660 tonnes dry nut in shell (DNIS), a decline of 6.38% from 2024, keeping total potential below 90,000 tonnes DNIS.
- Australia: A recovery to 60,000 tonnes DNIS is expected after last season’s weather-driven cuts.
- Currency Impact: Despite dollar price stability, a stronger South African rand means growers could see on-farm income drop by around 15%.
- Stock Levels: Higher carryover in the U.S. is likely, while new price lists are expected by mid-March for the 2026 crop.
🌦 Weather & Production Outlook
- South Africa: No major weather events reported for 2026, but production shows a marginal decrease compared to previous years. Watch for updated weather forecasts close to the main harvest period.
- Australia: Recovered from adverse weather in the last season; production expected to normalise.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2026 Production Estimate (DNIS tonnes) | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 81,660 | Down 6.38% from 2024; stable but below 90,000 ceiling |
| Australia | 60,000 | Recovered post-storm losses |
| China | N/A | Import duty reduced to 0% from South Africa |
🔍 Market Drivers
- Shifting U.S. tariffs under AGOA, with recent drop to 10%—but continuation risk persists
- Zero-duty agreement in China under the China-Africa Economic Partnership
- Stronger South African rand expected to reduce grower returns by ~15%
- Moderate global demand expansion; new market penetration is still slow
- Strategic allocation and pricing by cultivar are recommended to protect margins
💡 Trading Outlook (Recommendations)
- South African producers should diversify destination markets, especially strengthening links with China following the zero-tariff breakthrough.
- Monitor U.S. policy developments closely; seek forward contracts in new markets where regulatory risk is lower.
- Currency hedging strategies are advisable as the strong rand is set to compress margins despite stable dollar prices.
- Be cautious with U.S. sales until tariff certainty improves—carryover stocks may require price flexibility.
- Capitalize on gradual but steady demand growth via targeted marketing and product education to unlock longer-term gains.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Market | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht, NL | Brazil nuts | 6.50 | 6.45 – 6.55 | Stable |
| South Africa Export FOB | Macadamia kernels (est.) | N/A | Stable to slightly weaker (pending new price list, stronger rand) |
Neutral/Negative |
