Soya Market Outlook: Price Pressures, Global Flows & New Weather Risks

The global soya market is currently grappling with bearish sentiment as prices trend lower across major exchanges, driven by a combination of waning export demand, large inventories, and shifting speculative positions. At the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), soybean futures have recorded consecutive losses, with both soybean oil and meal reflecting softer values. The persistent weakening in canola prices on the ICE exchange—impacted by high farmer inventories in Canada and ongoing trade disputes with China—is spilling over into the oilseed complex, further dampening soya oil and meal. In addition, speculative traders in the US are reducing long positions, signaling reduced confidence in price appreciation for the near term. Export activity is muted, with weekly USDA-reported soybean export commitments down 39% year-on-year and new purchases by China noticeably absent. Meanwhile, palm oil prices in Malaysia have shown modest rebounds, enhancing their competitiveness relative to soya oil, and adding to the overall subdued sentiment for soy-based commodities.

On the supply side, US and South American producers are closely watching upcoming weather patterns, as critical growing stages approach in the Southern Hemisphere. Any significant shifts could quickly alter the market tone. Meanwhile, updated current product prices in EUR show a stable to slightly bullish tone for organic and non-organic soybeans from key origins, with Chinese offers rising marginally over the past week. As the market weighs winter weather in both hemispheres and monitors US export flows, attention will remain on crop development reports, speculative positioning, and macroeconomic factors such as crude oil volatility. Traders and buyers should remain alert to short-term volatility and be prepared for sudden reversals, especially if export or weather headlines turn bullish.

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📈 Prices: Latest Soya Market Indicators

CBOT Soybean Futures (as of 19.12.2025)

Contract	Closing Price	Change	% Change	Open Interest	Sentiment
Jan 26	1049.25 US-Cent/bu	-3.00	-0.29%	168,660	Bearish
Mar 26	1059.50 US-Cent/bu	-2.50	-0.24%	316,455	Bearish
May 26	1070.50 US-Cent/bu	-2.75	-0.26%	163,980	Bearish
Jul 26	1082.00 US-Cent/bu	-3.00	-0.28%	113,735	Bearish

CBOT Soya Oil

Contract	Closing Price	Change	% Change
Jan 26	47.90 US-Cent/lb	-0.21	-0.44%
Mar 26	48.44 US-Cent/lb	-0.18	-0.37%
May 26	48.92 US-Cent/lb	-0.18	-0.37%
Jul 26	49.22 US-Cent/lb	-0.16	-0.32%

CBOT Soya Meal

Contract	Closing Price	Change	% Change
Jan 26	297.60 USD/Short ton	-0.80	-0.27%
Mar 26	301.10 USD/Short ton	-1.20	-0.40%
May 26	304.70 USD/Short ton	-1.50	-0.49%
Jul 26	309.70 USD/Short ton	-1.40	-0.45%

DCE Soybean Futures (China)

Contract	Closing Price	Change	% Change
Jan 26	4048 CNY/t	-1.00	-0.02%
Mar 26	4061 CNY/t	+1.00	+0.02%
May 26	4083 CNY/t	+1.00	+0.02%

🌍 Spot & FOB Offers (as of 19.12.2025)

Type	Origin	Location	Price (EUR)	Change
Soybeans No.2	US	Washington D.C.	0.47	0
Soybeans sortex clean	India	New Delhi	0.87	0
Soybeans UA	Ukraine	Odesa	0.34	0
Soya powder lecithin (organic)	India	New Delhi	2.77	0
Soybeans yellow, organic	China	Beijing	0.76	+0.01
Soybeans yellow	China	Beijing	0.69	+0.01

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA export data: US soybean export sales for the latest week totaled 1.106 million tons—down 52% from the previous week and -39% year-on-year, signaling weaker global demand.
• No new Chinese buying: No new US soybean sales to China reported recently, though 114,000 tons were sold to unknown destinations (USDA).
• Speculative Positioning: US traders continue liquidating long positions in soya, suggesting limited confidence in upside price movement.
• Large Inventories: Canadian canola stocks are high, and willingness to sell may increase if trade tensions with China persist, putting further downward pressure on oilseed markets.
• Palm oil competitiveness: Firming Malaysian palm oil prices may cap soya oil market rallies by shifting demand away from soybean oil.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Context

Country/Region	2024/25 Soybean Production (est., million tons)	Ending Stocks (mt)
US	112	7.8
Brazil	161	31.7
Argentina	45	8.2
China	20	16.6
EU	2.6	0.9

• Brazil remains the world’s largest producer and exporter; upcoming weather remains key for South American yields.
• The US maintains robust crush and export programs but risks slipping competitiveness if South America enjoys favorable weather.
• China’s stocks remain ample, limiting import pressure despite smaller domestic crops.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Brazil: Forecasts point to slightly above-normal rains in central and southern Brazil for the next week, supporting crop development, but localized dryness persists in Mato Grosso. Watch for La Niña effects.
• Argentina: Wetter conditions may bring some relief to recent dryness; risk for scattered storms remains.
• US (Midwest): Mostly dormant season with mild temperatures; little risk to old crop stocks, no immediate threats to new crop.

Implication: Near-term weather is generally supportive for South America, with mixed risks. Any meaningful shift to drought or flooding could quickly reverse market sentiment.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical buyers: Consider incremental buying, but do not overcommit at current levels. Monitor South American weather closely into January.
• Producers: Hold off on new sales unless weather in Brazil/Argentina turns sharply favorable. Upside risk remains if South American production falters.
• Speculators: Opportunities exist for short trades given bearish trends, but watch for reversal triggers such as improved US-China trade or adverse S. American weather.
• End-users: Lock in coverage for Q1 2026 if basis levels are attractive, but keep options open for later quarters.

📌 3-day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Product	Forecast Price Range	Sentiment
CBOT	Soybeans (Jan 26)	1045 – 1060 US-Cent/bu	Soft/Bearish
CBOT	Soya Oil (Jan 26)	47.5 – 48.2 US-Cent/lb	Soft/Bearish
DCE	Soybeans (Jan 26)	4030 – 4060 CNY/t	Stable

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