Soya Prices Sink: Weak China Demand, South America Crop Pressure, Bearish Outlook

Global soya markets are entering a period of notable stress as bearish fundamentals, robust South American crops, and underwhelming Chinese demand combine to weigh on futures. Despite a minor US soybean export sale to China of 136,000 tons this week, overall Chinese purchases remain well below expectations, with mounting skepticism over the likelihood of Beijing reaching its originally-announced 12 million ton target by year-end. Meanwhile, competitive pressure from Brazil’s expansive and healthy new soya crop is intensifying as planting nears completion, aided by favorable rainfall and mild temperatures. This dynamic threatens US export prospects into early 2026 as Brazil starts harvesting in January and resumes its dominant role in international shipments. Speculative funds are scaling back long positions, signaling a negative price mood, while a slowdown in US domestic crushing and an uptick in soya oil stocks confirm weakening demand for derived products. Amid these headwinds, Chicago soya futures have dipped to seven-week lows, and global soya product prices remain soft, with further downside risk if export activity fails to recover.

📈 Prices

US CBOT Soya Complex – Closing Prices (16 Dec 2025)

Product	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
Soybeans	Mar 26	1,084.50 USc/bu	+0.30%	Bearish
Soymeal	Mar 26	308.50 USD/short ton	+0.62%	Stable
Soyoil	Mar 26	49.71 USc/lb	-0.60%	Bearish

Dalian (DCE) Soya No.1 (Main Contracts)

Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change (%)
Jan 26	4,142 CNY/t	-0.22%
Mar 26	4,149 CNY/t	+0.07%

FOB Physical Market Offers (12 Dec 2025)

Origin	Type	Spec	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Change
US	No.2	–	0.47	+0.02
IN	Sortex clean	–	0.87	+0.02
UA	–	–	0.34	-0.01
CN	Yellow, org.	99.8%	0.75	-0.02
CN	Yellow	99.5%	0.68	0.00

🌍 Supply & Demand

• USDA weekly export report: 2.23 million t soya beans sold (upper end of forecast); of which 2.14 million t to China.
• Cumulative Chinese US soya purchases: 4.2 million t (well behind 12 million t target for 2025).
• Biodiesel/palm oil complex: Allied weakness from lower Malaysian palm oil exports and lost ground in canola futures, reflecting slackening global vegoil trade.
• South American outlook: Brazil’s 2025/26 soya planting is 97% complete; ag advisors (AgRural) confirm strong seeding progress and optimal weather, with harvest to begin as early as January 2026.
• US crush data: NOPA November crush at 216.04 million bu (down -5.1% MoM, +11.8% YoY); soya oil stocks up to 1.513 bn lbs (+16% MoM, +40% YoY).

📊 Fundamentals

• Speculative positioning: Funds slashed net long by 15,336 contracts (to 214,289 contracts); indicating mounting bearishness.
• Export window shift: Brazil’s January 2026 harvest start curbs US export opportunities to China in H1 2026.
• Crush margins/soya oil: US soya oil stocks rising, tightening margin pressure for crushers; weaker vegoil markets globally.
• China’s buying pace: Still falling short, with uncertainty whether additional purchases (as pledged by US officials) will be made by March 2026.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Unusually favorable rains and moderate temperatures across core soya producing states (Mato Grosso, Paraná, Goias). Forecast models show continued precipitation and mild weather—largely reducing drought risk and securing yields.
• Argentina: Sufficient rainfall and moderate to warm temperatures expected over the next 7 days, supporting crop emergence/flowering; isolated heat risk possible but not critical.
• US Midwest: Dormant season for soy; mild winter so far, no freeze risk to stored stocks.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2025/26 Production (mt)	2025/26 Stocks (mt)	YoY Change
Brazil	162.0	30.8	+3%
US	113.5	7.9	-4%
Argentina	51.0	6.4	+10%
China (import)	18.2	11.0	+10%

*Source: USDA/Conab/estimates as latest available

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bears in control: Technical and fundamental momentum bearish, with funds continuing to exit long positions.
• South American crop risk: Watch for shift if any significant adverse weather emerges in Jan-Feb; otherwise downside bias.
• Chinese demand: Monitor commitment/progress of government buying—key for short-term corrections.
• User advice:
  • Growers: Hedge open 2026 production risk, consider forward sales above current market if opportunity arises on small rallies.
  • Processors: Await further spot price weakness to cover raw material; consider deferred buying for Q2 2026 needs as basis risk grows with new crop arrival in Brazil.
  • Traders/speculators: Maintain short bias or use downside puts; reassess only on clear sign of US export acceleration or South American weather reversals.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Product	Spot Price	3-Day Range (Est.)	Sentiment
CBOT	Soybeans Mar 26	1,084.50 USc/bu	1,065–1,092 USc/bu	Weak/Bearish
DCE	Soybean Jan 26	4,142 CNY/t	4,110–4,170 CNY/t	Neutral
FOB US Gulf	Soybeans (No.2)	0.47 EUR/kg	0.45–0.48 EUR/kg	Weak/Bearish