Soybean Futures Extend Rally – Argentina Still Wet, U.S. Planting Slows

Soybean Futures Extend Rally – Argentina Still Wet, U.S. Planting Slows

Soybean prices at the CBOT continued their upward move on Wednesday. Heavy rains in Argentina delayed harvest progress and supported futures. U.S. planting remains ahead of average but may slow due to new rainfall across the Corn Belt.

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📊 Market Overview – CBOT Soy Complex

Contract	Product	Price	Daily Change	Trend
Jul 25	Soybeans	1,062.75 ct/bu	+9.75 ct (+0.93%)	⬆️
Jul 25	Soymeal	295.60 USD/short ton	+1.50 USD	⬆️
Jul 25	Soy oil	49.83 US¢/lb	+0.91%	⬆️

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Argentina: Waterlogged Fields
  Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports up to 400 mm of rain in core farming zones. Drying conditions are expected soon, but damage may already be done.
  – 2024/25 crop estimate holds at 50 million tons.
• U.S. Planting Progress Threatened
  While 78% of soybean planting is complete, rainfall this week could stall activity in Ohio, Kentucky, and Illinois. However, emergence stands at 50%, 10 points above the 5-year average.
• Export Expectations
  USDA weekly report expected Thursday:
  – Old crop sales: 100k–300k t
  – New crop (2025/26): 90k–400k t
  – Soymeal: 100k–450k t
  – Soy oil: 0–32k t

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💼 Trading Strategy & Outlook

Soybeans remain supported by external fundamentals and strong soy oil recovery. But upside may be capped by profit-taking and biodiesel policy uncertainty.

Recommendations:
– Maintain long positions with a stop near 1,052 ct
– Monitor USDA export sales and EPA mandates
– Watch for exhaustion signals near 1,065–1,068 ct

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (CBOT Jul 25)

Date	Expected Range (ct/bu)	Outlook
May 22	1,057–1,067	⬆️ Strong bias
May 23	1,055–1,070	➡️ Volatile
May 24	1,060–1,072	⬆️ Technical upper test

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – U.S. & Argentina

Region	Trend	Notes
U.S. Midwest	🌧️ Increasing rain	Some delays expected in late-seeding zones
Argentina	🌧️ Flash floods	Delays and quality issues confirmed
Brazil	🌤️ Mild & dry	Post-harvest logistics normal
China (NE)	🌤️ Balanced	No disruptions to early planting observed

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✅ Ready for Market Report 3: Palm Oil?