Soybean Market Rebounds Amid Demand Concerns and Processing Surge

Soybean markets are in a delicate balance this week as fresh data from key exchanges and government reports highlight both resilience and persistent uncertainties. After a brief losing streak, soybean futures on the CBOT have stabilized, supported by robust domestic processing statistics and modest export activity. However, questions linger over the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) consistency in its export projections for 2025/26, considering ongoing weak shipments to China. In parallel, regulatory changes in Europe cast a shadow over the oilseed complex, with upcoming German biofuel regulations threatening to reshape feedstock demand but having minimal short-term impact on soybeans. On the physical side, international FOB prices show stability and minor fluctuations, reflecting healthy competition among main exporting origins. This market environment is set against a backdrop of strong U.S. crush volumes, record-high soybean meal sales, and private export deals to China and the EU, helping to lift market sentiment after recent lows. Meanwhile, speculative net long positioning is expanding, indicating positive sentiment, though underlying trade volumes remain cautious. Weather remains supportive in South America and the U.S., but upcoming forecasts carry potential yield risks if conditions shift. As the week progresses, all eyes will be on the delayed U.S. export sales report and how further data releases might recalibrate global supply and demand perceptions.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange/Product	Current Price	Weekly Change	Currency/Unit	Market Sentiment
CBOT Soybeans Jan 26	1,090.50	-0.75	US-Cent/bushel	Neutral to Slightly Bullish
DCE Soybeans Jan 26	4,123.00	+37.00	CNY/ton	Improving
Physical – CN (organic, 99.8%)	0.75	-0.02	EUR/kg FOB	Softness
Physical – US (No.2)	0.45	+0.03	EUR/kg FOB	Firming
Physical – UA	0.35	+0.01	EUR/kg FOB	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• USDA WASDE: No change in 2025/26 U.S. soybean export forecast (44.5 Mt) despite export difficulties, especially with China.
• Export Sales: Recent sales: 136,000 t to China; 119,000 t + 212,000 t to unknown; 120,000 t meal to Poland—modest but sentiment-positive.
• Processing: U.S. soybean crush reached an October record (237 million bushels, +9.9% y/y), boosting meal, but oil stocks also swelled (1.781 bn lbs, +11.9% y/y).
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money net long on CBOT up by 15,760 contracts to 194,443—bullish undertone.
• China: DCE prices uplifted by anticipation of steady demand; ongoing uncertainty about long-term import volumes.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

Country	Production (2025/26, Mt)	Exports (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)
U.S.	114.5*	44.5*	8.5*
Brazil	164.0*	100.0*	31.0*
Argentina	52.0*	8.5*	24.5*
China	19.0*	Negligible	23.0*

*Estimates based on latest USDA/industry projections.

⛅️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Brazil: Mostly favorable planting weather in Mato Grosso and Paraná; some dry patches may emerge in southern states next week. Vigilance required for late-planted areas.
• Argentina: Recent rains have improved soil moisture in core producing zones, easing earlier drought concerns.
• U.S.: Weather-neutral, with mild winter forecasts supporting good overwintering conditions.

⚖️ Market Drivers & Trade Flows

• USDA’s static export forecast for the U.S. at odds with weak year-to-date shipments, especially to China.
• Robust U.S. crush rates and growing global meal demand underpin values, but rising oil stocks hint at potential supply overhang.
• Speculative inflows suggest market participants expect tightening later in the season, especially if South American weather turns adverse.
• German policy changes mainly impact rapeseed oil but reinforce the need to watch EU biofuel policy for wider oilseed markets.

🌎 World Market Comparison

Origin	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Trend
China (Organic, 99.8%)	0.75	Softening
China (99.5%)	0.68	Unchanged
USA (No.2)	0.45	Firming
India (Sortex)	0.85	Rising
Ukraine	0.35	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📊 Importers: Consider forward cover for Q1/Q2 on current price dips; monitor U.S.-China trade flow headlines closely.
• 📊 Exporters: Boost sales if South American crop weather holds; premium possible for origin with reliable logistics.
• 📉 Speculators: Favor selective long positions—momentum building but watch for sudden USDA export downgrades or South American weather surprises.
• 📦 Processors: Stable crush margins with meal/oil price divergence; optimize logistics as demand remains strong in EU/Asia.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Soybeans)

Exchange	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
CBOT (US)	1,090.50 US-Cent/bu	+0.2%	+0.4%	Unchanged
DCE (CN)	4,123.00 CNY/t	+0.1%	+0.3%	Unchanged
FOB China	0.75 EUR/kg	Stable	Slightly higher	Stable
FOB US	0.45 EUR/kg	Firm	Firm	Unchanged

Price direction reflects current momentum, speculative positioning, and prevailing weather outlook in main producing regions.