Soybeans Market: Upward Momentum Resumes as CBOT Contracts Rally

The global soybeans market enters a dynamic phase in late February 2026, propelled by firmer prices across major exchanges and mixed signals from both derivatives and cash markets. The CBOT contracts (for both soybeans and byproducts like soya oil and soymeal) display a moderate but consistent uptick, reflecting an optimistic near-term sentiment among market participants. Notably, the leading May and July contracts for soybeans have climbed by approximately 0.4%, while soy oil and soymeal echo this strength with their own minor gains. Meanwhile, substantial open interest and active volumes, especially in the Chicago market, hint at robust trading activity and a market responsive to both supply-side anxiety and demand recovery.

On the international front, China’s DCE soybeans contracts showcase similar resilience, with all key maturities rising between 0.8% and 1.1%. Physical offers in the cash market reflect these trends: Chinese yellow soybeans (both organic and conventional) have ticked slightly higher, while non-GMO American soybeans remain stable. The cross-market rally, supported by solid fundamentals and strong trading interest, signals that the soy market may be turning a corner after periods of volatility.

📈 Prices

Contract	Latest Price	Change	Currency/Unit	Sentiment
CBOT Soybeans (May 26)	1169.50	+4.50 (+0.39%)	US-Cent/bushel	Bullish
CBOT Soy Oil (May 26)	60.76	+0.09 (+0.15%)	US-Cent/lb	Bullish
CBOT Soymeal (May 26)	323.20	+1.40 (+0.44%)	USD/short ton	Bullish
DCE Soybeans (May 26)	4674.00	+42.00 (+0.90%)	CNY/ton	Uptrend
China (organic, FOB Beijing)	0.78	+0.01	EUR/kg	Uptrend
China (conventional, FOB Beijing)	0.68	-0.01	EUR/kg	Slightly Weaker
US (No. 2, FOB Washington DC)	0.52	0.00	EUR/kg	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• CBOT Volume & Open Interest: May Soybeans (398,360 contracts OI) and significant gains in trading volume signal active market participation and strong hedging or inventory positioning by commercial actors.
• DCE Activity: Enormous turnover in May contracts (308,749 on DCE) underscores the importance of Chinese demand in shaping global price direction.
• Soyoil and Soymeal: Their parallel gains and substantial open interest further reinforce the underlying strength in both processing demand and feed ingredient needs.
• Physical Market: Recent firming in organic soybean offers (China, +1.2%) suggests robust specialized demand, while US No. 2 soybeans showing price stability reflect steady baseline export interest.

📊 Fundamentals & Drivers

• Price Leadership: The May and July CBOT contracts are leading the current rally, showing synchronized strength across the board for beans, oil, and meal.
• Spreads Remain Healthy: Forward curve remains slightly upward sloping, indicating little near-term supply pressure—even as contracts out to 2027/28 hold value above 1100 US-Cent/bu.
• Speculative Activity: Open interest data discuss sustained trader engagement, which typically precedes periods of higher volatility and price movement.
• Global Physical Context: Although China’s contract gains parallel CBOT, a marginal slip in conventional cash soy offers (China, -1.5%) hints at some harvesting or port-side arrivals tempering short-term spot demand.

⛅ Weather Impact & Regional Outlook

• US Midwest: Mild, damp conditions forecasted into late February, potentially aiding soil moisture for early plantings but not disrupting harvest logistics for South American crops.
• South America: Drier patches in Argentina and Brazil may cap further production gains, but no wide yield-threatening events reported yet. Instead, normal-to-slightly-below rains may gently support late crop filling.
• China: Limited domestic weather disruptions reported, ongoing imports remain a critical driver for domestic contract strength.

🌐 World Production & Stocks

CBOT and DCE contracts point toward markets in balancing mode: large open interest at the front and active far month contracts suggest ongoing supply chain and inventory readjustment. No acute stock shortages are evident, but strong import demand from China continues to underpin global trade and pricing.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish for Spring–Early Summer: Current rising trend in key CBOT and DCE contracts supports further near-term upside, especially if US and South American crop progress remains unthreatened by weather.
• Hedge at Spreads: Strong forward curve makes hedging attractive for holders of physical stock; new-crop positions may benefit from locking in recent gains.
• Watch Physical vs. Derivatives Spread: As US and Chinese spot prices decouple slightly, monitor for basis trade or cash/futures arbitrage opportunities.
• Stay Alert for USDA & WASDE Updates: Late February and March supply/demand reports can trigger volatility or reset expectations.

Day	CBOT Soybeans (May 26)	DCE Soybeans (May 26)	Sentiment
Feb 27	1171–1177 US¢/bu	4670–4700 CNY/t	Bullish/Likely Further Gains
Feb 28	1176–1180 US¢/bu	4685–4720 CNY/t	Bullish/Mild Consolidation
Feb 29	1172–1178 US¢/bu	4675–4710 CNY/t	Steady to Firm