Soybeans Outlook: US Export Challenges & Brazil’s Price Edge Shape Global Market

The global soybean market finds itself at a critical crossroads as political signals and hard fundamentals collide. On the one hand, overtures from US President Trump, promising up to 20 million tonnes of US soybean exports to China this season and another 25 million tonnes for the next, have spurred sharp rallies in futures positioning. This optimism is, however, layered over complex trade realities: US soybean exportable supply is limited, and Brazilian beans are priced about 70 cents per bushel cheaper, delivered to Chinese ports.

Meanwhile, higher Chinese import duties on US soybeans further erode the US’s price competitiveness, relegating most new US sales to state entities rather than the open commercial market. Even as state reserves are tapped to absorb political purchases, private Chinese crushers remain sidelined due to weak processing margins and the appeal of a thriving Brazilian harvest. USDA data for the week to January 29 underscores this tension: At 436,949 tonnes, US export sales landed at the low end of expectations and marked a 46.7% dip week over week. Thus, while political headlines buoy market sentiment, lackluster export figures and unfavorable price spreads curtail the fundamental case for sustained price gains. In short, expectations for US bean shipments are high, but actual trade flows depend squarely on the global price mosaic and pragmatically driven Chinese import demand.

📈 Prices

Contract	Last (US-Cent/bu)	Change	Weekly Change (%)
March 2026	1104.75	-7.50	-0.67%
May 2026	1119.00	-7.00	-0.62%
July 2026	1131.25	-6.00	-0.53%
August 2026	1121.25	-5.75	-0.51%
November 2026	1093.50	-5.00	-0.46%

Origin	Type	Price (EUR/kg, FOB)	Prev.	Update Date
China	yellow, organic	0.77	0.78	2026-02-06
China	yellow	0.70	0.70	2026-02-06
US	No. 2	0.52	0.50	2026-02-04

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US export potential: Announced volumes (up to 20 Mt to China this season) are politically motivated. Realistic exportable US supply is limited.
• Price competition: Brazil’s soybeans are c. $0.70/bu cheaper than US beans into China, amplifying demand for Brazilian origin.
• Chinese demand: State entities facilitate most US purchases, while commercial processors prefer Brazil. China’s higher tariffs for US beans dampen private interest.
• Recent US export sales: Weekly sales at 436,949 t (down 46.7% from previous week), at the lower end of expectations, highlighting weak private sector demand.

📊 Fundamentals

• Political impact: Market rallies are tied to diplomatic initiatives and headline-driven optimism, rather than sustained commercial fundamentals.
• Stock management: Chinese state reserves are being drawn down and refilled with imports from the US, suggesting policy-driven rather than value-driven trade.
• US export price disadvantage: High premiums for US beans to China limit competitiveness, especially for non-state buyers.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• South America: Brazilian harvest is in full swing and supporting lower prices; current reports suggest robust yields in key Mato Grosso and Paraná regions.
• North America: No immediate weather threats to US supply noted; crop insurance and early planning for 2026 are underway with normal weather risk suggested (confirm with localized weather web updates for real-time outlook).

🌎 Production & Stocks Overview

Country	Est. Production (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Exportable Surplus
Brazil	~155	High, active export program	Largest global supplier
US	~114	Modest, restricted by commitments	Limited new export supply
China	<20	Large, but drawing down reserves	Net importer

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish market moves remain highly sensitive to political news but face headwinds from weak physical demand and uncompetitive US pricing.
• Physical buyers in China likely to stick with Brazilian origin unless forced by policy to buy US beans.
• Watch for further announcements about state-managed Chinese imports; commercial trade flows likely to remain subdued.
• Monitor South American harvest progress for potential supply shocks or quality issues that could alter global spreads.
• Short-term: Sideways to slightly bearish bias, unless new political deals materialize or weather disrupts major exporters.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT)

Date	Contract	Forecast Range (US-Cent/bu)
2026-02-07	March 2026	1100–1110
2026-02-08	March 2026	1095–1108
2026-02-09	March 2026	1092–1105