Stable Chilean prune prices in Poland amid strong export season

Chilean dried prune prices in Poland are currently flat week‑on‑week at around EUR 2.71/kg FCA Lodz, after a mild downward adjustment over the past month. The broader global context shows Chile maintaining its role as the leading dried prune exporter, with a solid 2024 crop and improved drying yields, while demand from Europe remains firm but price‑sensitive.

European buyers are benefiting from comfortable short‑term availability as Chile’s 2025/26 stone‑fruit export season progresses at a faster shipping pace than last year, easing near‑term supply concerns. At the same time, structurally tighter production in competing origins such as France and constrained growth in California keep a floor under medium‑term prices. Weather conditions in Chile’s core prune regions have so far been broadly favourable, supporting expectations of stable export flows into the first half of 2026. For now, market sentiment in Poland is neutral to slightly bearish in the very short term, but the balance of risks for the rest of 2026 still tilts mildly to the upside if any weather or logistical disruptions emerge.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

Spot and recent prices – Prunes Elliot, origin Chile, FCA Lodz (PL)

Date (Update)	Product	Origin	Location	Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
2026-03-16	Prunes dried, Prunes Elliot	Chile	Lodz, PL	FCA	2.71	0.00	0.0%	Neutral
2026-03-09	Prunes dried, Prunes Elliot	Chile	Lodz, PL	FCA	2.71	-0.05	-1.7%	Mildly bearish
2026-03-02	Prunes dried, Prunes Elliot	Chile	Lodz, PL	FCA	2.76	-0.07	-2.5%	Softening
2026-02-23	Prunes dried, Prunes Elliot	Chile	Lodz, PL	FCA	2.84	0.00	0.0%	Balanced

Note: Original offers in USD/kg converted at ~1.09 USD/EUR for consistency. Values are indicative.

Over the past three weeks, Lodz FCA prices for Chilean Prunes Elliot have eased from around EUR 2.84/kg to EUR 2.71/kg, before stabilising at that level in the latest quotation. This equates to a cumulative decline of roughly 4.5% since late February, but with no additional weakness registered in the most recent week.

The flat week‑on‑week price suggests near‑term equilibrium between Chilean supply arrivals and European buying interest. Given the absence of aggressive discounting and stable freight conditions on South America–Europe routes, the current level appears to be an area where both Chilean shippers and Polish/European buyers are comfortable concluding spot business.

🌍 Supply & Export Context

Chile’s role in global dried prune supply

Chile remains the world’s largest dried prune exporter, shipping about 84,700 tonnes in 2024 with an export value of roughly USD 255 million, ahead of the United States and France. This dominant position means Chile largely sets the reference price for standard quality prunes into Europe.

Industry statistics compiled by ChilePrunes indicate that total plum production in Chile reached about 110,000 tonnes in 2024, with prune production of around 38,000 tonnes, supported by adequate winter chill and good water availability. While final 2025 prune output data is not yet fully consolidated, trade sources in early 2026 describe a solid harvest with good drying yields and fruit size, pointing to comfortable exportable surpluses.

Export pace and product mix

For stone fruit generally, Chile’s 2025/26 season is running at a significantly faster shipping pace than the prior year. By week 5 of 2026, cumulative exports of fresh plums were up about 42% year‑on‑year, with a larger share of European‑type plums in the mix. Although this data refers to fresh plums, it corroborates reports of strong underlying production and efficient logistics that also underpin the dried prune segment.

European import data shows Chile consolidating and in some cases expanding its market share. In Spain, for example, Chile accounted for roughly 47% of dried prune import value in the 12 months to October 2025, as France’s share receded following two seasons of lower production. Similar patterns are reported in other EU markets, reinforcing Chile’s position as the default origin for standard processed and retail‑packed prunes.

📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers

Competing origins and structural supply

California and France remain the key alternative prune origins. California’s 2024 prune crop is estimated at around 65,000 tonnes, a moderate level after prior weather‑related challenges, with a significant share aimed at North American and Asian markets. France, meanwhile, has suffered two years of relatively low production, forcing EU buyers to rely more heavily on Chilean and Argentine suppliers.

These structural limitations in competing origins help explain why Chilean prices, although off their peaks, have not collapsed despite solid Chilean supply. Buyers in Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland, are still paying a premium over pre‑2022 averages, but the current EUR 2.70–2.80/kg FCA Lodz range reflects more balanced global fundamentals than during the tight years of 2021–2022.

Demand environment in Europe

European consumption of dried prunes is relatively stable, with some pressure from higher retail prices and changing snacking preferences. However, prunes retain a resilient niche in bakery, cereal, and health‑oriented snack segments. Trade commentary early in 2026 describes EU demand as “steady but cautious,” with buyers preferring short‑term coverage rather than large forward positions.

In Spain and other EU‑27 markets, Chile’s growing share of imports has been driven both by competitive pricing and by its reputation for consistent quality and food safety. This supports a floor under Chilean offers into Poland, as Polish packers compete with Western European processors for similar Chilean material.

⛅ Weather Outlook – Chile (CL) and Yield Implications

Recent weather and production background

Chile’s main prune production belt is concentrated in the central regions (notably Maule and neighboring valleys), where agriculture is a key economic activity and climate conditions are typically Mediterranean. Industry reports for 2024 highlighted adequate winter chill accumulation and sufficient water reserves, contributing to good fruit set and prune yields.

The 2025 spring brought some localised weather risks in southern and central‑southern Chile, including frontal systems with heavy rain and hail that affected fruit crops and could cause localized damage of up to 50% where hail intensity was high. However, there is no evidence so far that these events have materially cut the national prune crop; impacts appear patchy and largely mitigated in orchards with protective infrastructure.

Short‑term (3–7 day) weather pattern

Short‑term meteorological data for central Chile around Maule and adjacent valleys in mid‑March 2026 indicate seasonally mild late‑summer conditions, with daytime temperatures mostly in the mid‑20s °C, cool nights, and limited precipitation forecast over the next few days. (Based on current regional weather model outputs consulted March 17, 2026.) These conditions are broadly favourable for drying operations and late orchard work.

Given that most 2025/26 prune drying is already completed, the immediate weather impact on available export supply is limited. The main relevance of the current pattern is reduced risk of post‑harvest quality losses and logistical disruptions. In other words, there is no short‑term weather trigger that would justify a sharp price move in Lodz over the next week.

📌 Market Sentiment & Trading Outlook

Current sentiment

• Short term (next 1–3 weeks): Neutral to slightly bearish. Stocks in European cold stores are adequate, Chilean shipments are flowing smoothly, and buyers feel under little pressure to chase the market higher.
• Medium term (Q2–Q3 2026): Mildly supportive. Structural tightness in France and limited upside in California/Argentina volumes could support a gradual firming if demand normalises and freight remains stable.
• Risk balance: Weather or logistical shocks in Chile would more likely push prices up than down from current levels, given Chile’s dominant export role.

Actionable guidance for market participants

• Importers/Packers in Poland & CEE: Use the current EUR 2.70–2.75/kg FCA Lodz level to secure short‑ to medium‑term coverage (2–3 months) but avoid over‑committing far forward as Chilean supply is still flowing well. Consider staggered purchases to capture any minor further softness.
• Retailers and food manufacturers: Lock in volumes for key promotions and contracts for H2 2026 while the market is calm, especially for higher calibres where competing demand from Western Europe can tighten availability later in the year.
• Chilean exporters: With European demand steady but price‑sensitive, maintaining competitive offers and logistics reliability will be key to defending market share in Central and Eastern Europe. Current price levels likely warrant disciplined sales rather than aggressive discounting.
• Risk managers: Monitor developments in competing origins, especially any upward revisions to California’s export programmes or further weather‑related setbacks in France. These will influence the medium‑term floor under Chilean FOB prices.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Outlook (FCA Lodz, PL – Chile Origin Prunes)

Date	Expected Range (EUR/kg)	Direction vs 2026-03-16 Close	Comment
2026-03-18	2.69 – 2.73	Stable	Balanced spot demand and ongoing arrivals from Chile; no fresh drivers.
2026-03-19	2.69 – 2.74	Stable	Sideways trading expected; buyers likely to negotiate within a narrow band around current quotes.
2026-03-20	2.69 – 2.75	Stable to slightly firmer	Minor upside risk if freight or replacement costs from Chile tick higher, but overall calm conditions.

The price outlook assumes continued normal weather and logistics in central Chile and stable demand from European industrial and retail buyers. In the absence of unexpected shocks, Lodz FCA prices for Chilean Prunes Elliot are likely to consolidate around the current EUR 2.70–2.75/kg area in the very near term.