The global star anise market is experiencing a dynamic shift in 2025, powered by Vietnam’s significant expansion in production and evolving export trends. With over 40,000 hectares now devoted to star anise in northern provinces and annual production exceeding 16,000 tons, Vietnam has secured its position as the world’s second-largest supplier behind China. Recent trade data reveal a year-on-year surge in export volumes, particularly a sharp rise in August 2025. However, this increase comes at the cost of softer prices, as evidenced by an 8.1% decline in export values during the January–August 2025 period.
The contrasting trends—rising volumes versus lower prices—highlight underlying shifts in supply-demand dynamics, global pricing pressures, and a diversified buyer base led by India, the EU, and the Middle East. The drive toward sustainability and quality, paired with Vietnam’s ambitions to boost spice exports to $2 billion by 2025, further sets the stage for a market characterized by growth and competitiveness. This report unpacks the latest price movements, fundamental drivers, weather impacts, and actionable trading advice for the months ahead, providing stakeholders with a comprehensive view of where the star anise market is heading next.
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📈 Prices
| Origin | Location | Type | Organic | Latest Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | Hanoi | Star Anise | Yes | 7.27 | 0.00 | Stable, slight demand uptick | 2025-09-06 |
| Vietnam | Hanoi | Star Anise | No | 7.85 | 0.00 | Firm, quality premium | 2025-09-06 |
| India | New Delhi | Star Anise | Yes | 6.32 | 0.00 | Weak, competitive pressure | 2025-09-06 |
| Syria | Dordrecht (NL) | Anis (seed) | No | 3.30 | 0.00 | Soft, substitute availability | 2025-09-05 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam’s production is >16,000 tons/year, second only to China, outpacing most global rivals. Most volumes are export-oriented, with India as the leading buyer.
- 2025 exports (Jan–Aug): 10,248 tons (+12.4% y/y), $40.1M (-8.1% y/y), indicating rising supply but price pressure.
- August 2025: 972 tons shipped (+61.5% m/m), $4.5M (+79.8% m/m). Strongest monthly export in recent memory, driven by pre-festival demand in India/EU and restocking.
- 2024: 14,004 tons exported (-5.7%), $63.7M (-16.2%)—the price drop offset volume gains, a trend likely to persist near term.
- Rising output is supported by sustainable farming programs and expanded acreage in Lang Son and Cao Bang.
📊 Fundamentals
- Global Inventories: Inventories are building in Vietnam, leading to price softness. China holds the largest reserves but is exporting less due to domestic consumption.
- Speculative Positioning: Limited speculative trading; most positions are commercial/export contracts. Some Indian traders are holding back purchases, betting on further price declines.
- Processing Split: ~90% sun-dried for culinary/wholesale export; ~10% for oil/pharma/cosmetics sectors, where prices are more resilient.
- Export Destinations: India dominates (>40%), EU (~20%), Middle East (~18%). Demand is robust but buyers are price-sensitive.
☀️ Weather and Crop Outlook
- Northern Vietnam (Lang Son, Cao Bang): 2025 monsoon was well-distributed, supporting fruit set. Localized storms in August caused minor delays in harvest but no significant yield losses.
- Short-term forecast (Sept): Scattered showers, temperatures 23–27°C, low risk of crop disease. Expect steady supply.
- China (Guangxi, Yunnan): Normal summer; some dryness in July but no major disruption to star anise orchards.
🌏 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (tons) | 2025 Export Volume YTD (tons) | Share of World Export (%) | Main Importers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | ~50,000 | n.a. | ~60% | Southeast Asia, EU |
| Vietnam | 16,000 | 10,248 (Jan-Aug) | ~35% | India, EU, Middle East |
| India | 2,500 | n.a. | <5% | Domestic, Middle East |
| Syria/Turkey | ~1,500 | n.a. | <5% | EU, regional |
📌 Key Drivers & Trends
- Vietnam’s crop expansion offers stable, competitive pricing but narrows margins for rival exporters (especially India, Syria).
- 2025’s export surge shows restored confidence and robust international demand, but global buyers are cautious due to recent price volatility.
- Quality differentiation—organic premium steady at +5–8% over non-organic. Essential oil market segment shows resilience versus raw spice trading.
- Macroeconomic: Strengthening USD and higher logistics costs exert mild upward pressure but are offset by oversupply.
- Comparative insight: Last report (2024) signaled concern over price weakness, which continues despite higher volumes, confirming market oversupply persists.
🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Sellers: Consider forward contracts as inventories rise; diversify into value-added/essential oil exports to offset raw price softness.
- Buyers: Opportunity to negotiate favorable terms given ample supply; monitor organic and origin premiums.
- Monitor India’s festive season demand and EU restocking patterns—potential for short-term price rebounds.
- Weather risk low; supply disruptions unlikely near-term; focus shifts to demand-side signals.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast
| Origin | Location | Current Price (€/kg) | Forecast (€/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | Hanoi (Organic) | 7.27 | 7.20–7.30 | Stable/Soft |
| Vietnam | Hanoi (Conventional) | 7.85 | 7.75–7.88 | Soft, minor downside |
| India | New Delhi (Organic) | 6.32 | 6.30–6.35 | Flat |
Downward price bias remains mild, with possible upside if buyer demand surges for holidays. Monitor export flows and global inventory trends.