Sunflower Market Faces Quality Divide: Tight Supply for Premium, Oversupply for Standard

The global sunflower market currently exhibits a clear quality-driven segmentation, with premium sunflower products enjoying strong prices due to tight supply, while standard-grade goods face oversupply and downward pricing pressure. In China, the shift is pronounced: processors are willing to pay up for superior raw materials, but ample supply of average-grade sunflowers and kernels places a ceiling on prices. Export dynamics remain subdued, constrained by high inventories abroad and lackluster international demand, as evidenced by small-quantity spot transactions at trade shows and fewer long-term contracts. The sluggish domestic end-user consumption compounds these difficulties, ensuring that price differentiation based on quality persists in the short term. Negotiated pricing dominates, leaving the market without strong upward or downward catalysts.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Purity	Type	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Sunflower seeds	UA	Odesa	98%	Black	FCA	0.61	0.61	2025-12-11	Stable
Sunflower seeds	UA	Kyiv	98%	Black	FCA	0.62	0.62	2025-12-11	Stable
Sunflower seeds	CN	Beijing	98%	Black with stripe	FOB	1.53	1.57	2025-12-11	Bearish
Sunflower kernels (confection)	CN	Beijing	99.95%	Hulled	FOB	1.05	1.07	2025-12-11	Bearish
Sunflower kernels (bakery)	CN	Beijing	99.95%	Hulled	FOB	1.06	1.05	2025-12-11	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Quality differentiation: Premium sunflower sources are tight, supporting firm prices. Ordinary goods see abundant supply and softer prices. Processing plants focus on small restocking, with limited bargaining power for suppliers.
• Export outlook: Overseas demand remains sluggish—international buyers focus on spot deals at exhibitions. Long-term contracts and volumes drop year-over-year. Elevated global stocks limit export opportunities, keeping pressure on the domestic market.
• Domestic demand: Consumption has not recovered, especially in ordinary product segments. Market lacks strong growth drivers in the near term.

📊 Fundamentals

• Stocks & Inventories: Global sunflower and kernel stocks remain high, especially in leading exporters (Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria), keeping a lid on upward price movement.
• Speculative activity: Moderate speculative positioning; sellers show willingness to negotiate on average grades, while buyers cautiously select for quality.
• Fundamental driver: The main variable is quality; only top grades see firm pricing, as market differentiation persists.

🌤️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine and Russia: Mild winter expected, which supports good overwintering for crops but persistent dryness remains a risk in some Black Sea regions. Close monitoring required for spring planting conditions.
• China: No major weather threats; recent rainfall supports stable crop development. No significant threats to supply in the short term.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Production (est. mt)	2024 Stocks (est. mt)	Export Share
Ukraine	14.4M	2.7M	High
Russia	17.0M	3.1M	High
EU (top three)	~11M	1.9M	Moderate
China	3.0M	0.7M	Low
Other	2.0M	0.2M	Minimal

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Premium/quality sunflower products should hold value as buyers compete for scarce supply.
• Abundant availability and slack demand for standard/lower grades will constrain prices.
• Export market participants should prioritize high-quality orders and opportunistic spot deals as long-term contract volumes shrink.
• Short-term: Expect continued price divergence by quality type, with negotiated deals prevailing.
• Monitor weather developments in the Black Sea region and spring planting intentions for early signals of market shift.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product	Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	Odesa, UA	0.61	0.60-0.62	Stable
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	Kyiv, UA	0.62	0.61-0.63	Stable
Sunflower seeds (striped, 98%)	Beijing, CN	1.53	1.50-1.54	Slight Down