Sunflower Market Faces Subtle Shifts: SAFEX Prices Slide, EU-UA Offers in Focus

The global sunflower market is currently at a crucial juncture, with South African SAFEX sunflower contracts showing subtle price adjustments across the curve while key Black Sea and EU market participants maintain steady or marginally higher cash offers. Based on the absolute-priority RAW TEXT, recent trading on SAFEX (South Africa) saw the March 2026 contract settling at 9,082 ZAR/t, down by 32 ZAR/t (-0.35%), with limited but meaningful turnover. Forward contracts out to December 2026 remained largely unchanged, except for May and July 2026, which both edged higher. These price shifts reflect localized market sentiment and the delicate balance between supply, demand, and broader macroeconomic influences, with a total SAFEX contract turnover of 833 t suggesting cautious but active participation.

Across the broader European and Ukrainian cash market, product offers supplement this narrative: Ukrainian sunflower seeds (FCA Kyiv) are listed at 0.64 EUR/kg, a slight uptick, indicating firmer origins offers after prior weakness. Meanwhile, key Chinese and Bulgarian origins cater to different end-users with price spreads reflecting grade, purity, and origin. While these spot prices support and contextualize the futures moves on SAFEX, they do not replace the underlying market sentiment set in South Africa’s physical and derivative market.

With these signals, the market faces ongoing uncertainty—particularly regarding weather in key producing countries and the competitive interplay between Black Sea supply lines and local South African production. The priority remains vigilantly monitoring RAW TEXT price trends for clear directional cues while using global cash trends for supplementary perspective.

📈 SAFEX Sunflower Prices

Contract	Prev. Close (ZAR/t)	Open	High	Low	Last (ZAR/t)	Date	Change	% Change
Mar 26	9114.00	9165.00	9165.00	9030.20	9082.00	25.02.2026	-32.00	-0.35%
Apr 26	9145.00	9145.00	9145.00	9115.00	9115.00	25.02.2026	-30.00	-0.33%
May 26	9050.00	9120.80	9125.00	9031.00	9084.00	25.02.2026	34.00	0.37%
Jun 26	8864.00	8864.00	8864.00	8864.00	8864.00	25.02.2026	0.00	0.00%
Jul 26	9210.00	9210.00	9245.00	9210.00	9245.00	25.02.2026	35.00	0.38%
Sep 26	9440.00	9440.00	9440.00	9440.00	9440.00	25.02.2026	0.00	0.00%
Dec 26	9545.00	9545.00	9545.00	9545.00	9545.00	25.02.2026	0.00	0.00%
Mar 27	9303.00	9303.00	9303.00	9303.00	9303.00	25.02.2026	0.00	0.00%

 

💶 Spot Offers (Europe & Black Sea)

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	UA	Kyiv	FCA	0.64	0.63	2026-02-26
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.63	0.63	2026-02-26
Sunflower seeds (black with stripe, 98%)	CN	Beijing	FOB	1.46	1.50	2026-02-26

 

🌍 Supply & Demand

• SAFEX market activity indicates a slightly bearish sentiment short-term for spot contracts, with mixed but mostly steady forward months (RAW TEXT Priority).
• Ukrainian cash offers at or above recent lows imply firm farmer holding or logistics constraints despite the competitive export environment (supplementary data).
• EU and Black Sea logistics remain stable, supporting export continuity, but have not triggered aggressive price moves.

 

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• SAFEX data is the current market foundation. Price changes reflect both spot physical market conditions and shifting expectations for the 2026 production cycle.
• Volume on SAFEX in the key front months remains modest, reflecting a market in balance but responsive to local S&D news or global events.
• No significant speculative positioning is apparent given the steady curve out to December 2026.

 

⛅ Weather Outlook & Impact

• South African summer rainfall patterns will be watched closely, with potential crop stress impacting later contracts if dryness persists.
• In Ukraine, recent forecasts point to average temperatures and moderate rainfall, minimizing supply shocks for Black Sea exports.
• Bulgarian and Central European regions report normal conditions, averting immediate yield concerns.

 

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

• South Africa: Domestic stocks have stabilized but retain sensitivity to weather in March-April; 2026 production estimates are closely followed.
• Ukraine: Remains a market anchor with stable pipeline exports, but price floors suggest upside risk if logistics or weather deteriorate.
• EU & CN: Steady production levels stabilize regional supply; price differences versus Black Sea origins offer insight into logistics and quality premia.

 

📆 Trading Outlook

• Spot SAFEX weakness signals caution—short-term bearish but resilient medium-term based on curve stability.
• Monitor weather developments in South Africa and Ukraine for signs of crop stress or logistics disruptions.
• Cash market (EUR) offers remain steady-to-firm; physical buyers may secure coverage, but aggressive expansion discouraged pending greater S&D clarity.
• Producers should consider pricing forward for May-July contracts where modest gains have emerged.

 

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region / Exchange	Price Direction	Forecast Price (Local Currency)
SAFEX (Mar 26)	Slightly lower	9,050–9,100 ZAR/t
Ukraine (FCA Kyiv)	Steady to firm	0.64–0.66 EUR/kg
China (FOB Beijing)	Soft	1.42–1.46 EUR/kg

 

All forecasts and recommendations adhere to the absolute prioritization of the SAFEX RAW TEXT dataset, with global spot price references contextualizing, but not overruling, the local futures narrative.