Sunflower Market in Flux: Prices Edge Up Amid Global Oilseed Volatility

The sunflower market has entered a dynamic phase as 2025 closes, with prices climbing on leading exchanges even as volatility dominates broader oilseed markets. Recent SAFEX sunflower contracts show notable upticks—December 2025 settled at 10,358 ZAR/t (+1.03%), while January 2026 surged to 10,200 ZAR/t (+1.49%). Underlying these moves is shifting sentiment in the global oilseed complex, as European rapeseed remains resilient compared to pressured US soybeans and Canadian canola. Sunflower demand in the EU has been buoyed by lower rapeseed imports, compelling crushers to source domestically, though the outlook remains challenging amid international competition and uncertain macro-drivers. Ukrainian and Bulgarian sunflower seed and kernel prices have stabilized or edged marginally higher, while Chinese product remains relatively steady at higher price points, reflecting ongoing supply bottlenecks and robust end-user interest. As traders eye the latest USDA WASDE and monitor global shipping flows, weather patterns in the Black Sea and Central and Eastern Europe will play a decisive role in yield potential and next quarter’s price direction. Market participants should brace for continued volatility and consider both currency impacts and speculative positioning as they fine-tune strategies heading into the new year.

📈 Prices & Exchanges

Exchange/Market	Contract/Region	Last Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SAFEX	Sunflower Dec 2025	10,358 ZAR/t	+1.03%	Bullish
SAFEX	Sunflower Jan 2026	10,200 ZAR/t	+1.49%	Bullish
SAFEX	Sunflower Mar 2026	9,401 ZAR/t	+0.38%	Stable
FOB Odessa (UA)	Black Sunflower Seeds	€0.55/kg	-1.8%	Softening
FOB Odessa (UA)	Sunflower Kernels (Meal)	€0.54/kg	-1.8%	Softening
FOB Sofia (BG)	Striped Sunflower Seeds	€0.61/kg	+19.6%	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• European rapeseed is shoring up sunflower demand as EU crushers increase local buying due to lower rapeseed imports.
• Canadian canola prices remain under pressure; ICE Winnipeg hits 8-month lows, compounding EU crush decisions.
• USDA WASDE: Expectations for slightly higher global soybean stocks and possible US export downgrades are dampening oilseed sentiment but support sunflower’s stability.
• Ongoing trade tensions (notably, Canada’s canola with China and US soy with China) continue to redirect demand towards alternative oilseeds, including sunflower.
• Ukraine and Bulgaria maintain steady export flows; Chinese seed prices remain elevated, reflecting logistics and local demand strength.

📊 Key Fundamentals

• Sunflower oil demand in the EU is firm, as crushers cope with a tighter rapeseed market and demand resilience.
• Global inventories for competitive oilseeds (soybean, canola) are forecast marginally higher as of last USDA update, but sunflower balances remain tighter in the Black Sea region than a year ago.
• Speculative positioning appears supportive for sunflower futures, while canola and soy funds remain net short, increasing volatility risk ahead of key weather periods.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Potential

• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Mild and relatively dry conditions in recent weeks, but a shift to colder, wetter weather is possible, threatening later-planted crops.
• Bulgaria & Romania: Soil moisture remains average; no significant frost threats, supporting stable yield outlook.
• South Africa: Weather largely cooperative, no major drought signals, suggesting positive momentum for 2025/26 crops.
• China: Cool and steady; production area stable, with persistent logistics issues but no major climate disruption.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Stocks (Mt)	Notes
Ukraine	14.8	1.1	Strong exports, limited carryout
Russia	17.6	2.3	Major global supplier, stable stocks
EU-27	10.5	1.5	Declining rapeseed imports boost local crush
Argentina	3.9	0.5	Stable, competition in South America growing

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider pre-selling a portion of 2025/26 output as local and global prices remain historically strong, and volatility is expected to persist near term.
• Buyers/Crushers: Monitor opportunities for spot purchases; EU crushers may face tighter inventories as winter progresses.
• Exporters: Watch currency movements (ZAR, EUR, USD) for competitive edge and brace for freight/logistic volatility—especially in Black Sea ports.
• Speculators: Sunflower futures show signs of upward momentum; leverage cautiously amid macro risk and pending USDA supply forecasts.
• Fundamentals watch: Track USDA updates and local weather closely; opportunistic buying may emerge if late-winter weather disrupts sowing or shipping.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
SAFEX Dec 25	10,358 ZAR/t	10,380 ZAR/t	10,410 ZAR/t	10,390 ZAR/t
FOB Odessa (UA)	€0.55/kg	€0.56/kg	€0.57/kg	€0.57/kg
FOB Sofia (BG)	€0.61/kg	€0.62/kg	€0.63/kg	€0.63/kg