Sunflower Market in Focus: Price Stability, Global Dynamics & Forward Risks

The sunflower market is at a crucial juncture as we close out the year, with prices demonstrating remarkable steadiness on key exchanges despite external turbulence in the global oilseed complex. South African AFEX contracts, a barometer for the regional market, saw the December 2025 and January 2026 contracts unchanged, reflecting a wait-and-see approach among market participants. Meanwhile, the international spot market, especially for Ukrainian and Bulgarian origins delivered FOB Odesa and Sofia, exhibited flat prices over the past week, underscoring the market’s underlying stability in the face of global oilseed volatility. This firmness comes as rival seed and vegoil markets—rapeseed on Euronext, Canola in Canada, and US soybeans—face pressure from ample on-farm stocks and shifting speculative positioning, especially amid unresolved trade tensions and cautious Chinese demand. Weather conditions in key sunflower-growing regions of Ukraine and Russia remain a focal point, with a neutral near-term outlook but lingering uncertainty ahead of next spring. Taken together, sunflower remains a relatively stable outlier among oilseeds, but participants should monitor external signals from soy, palm, and energy markets that historically can spill over into sunflower pricing.

📈 Sunflower Prices: Latest Market Overview

Contract/Location	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
AFEX Dec 2025	12,400	0%	ZAR/t	Sideways / Stable
AFEX Jan 2026	10,709	0%	ZAR/t	Sideways / Stable
AFEX Mar 2026	9,501	-2.43%	ZAR/t	Weak / Selling pressure
AFEX May 2026	8,878	+0.20%	ZAR/t	Mild rebound
Ukraine Odesa FOB (Black 98%)	0.56	0%	EUR/kg	Flat
Ukraine Odesa FOB (Kernel meal)	0.55	0%	EUR/kg	Flat
Ukraine Kyiv FCA (Black 98%)	0.62	0%	EUR/kg	Flat

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Euronext Rapeseed & ICE Canola: Persistent losses in rapeseed and canola markets are weighing on sentiment. Canadian on-farm stocks are significant, and some expect heightened selling in January, potentially pressuring oilseed prices further.
• Sunflower Spot Market: Weakening in China’s demand for oilseeds noted, but sunflower remains steady thanks to regional balance sheets and Ukrainian crop resilience.
• Soybeans: US exporters reported lack of new Chinese buying, with overall soybean commitments down 39% y/y. This weak export environment adds to the caution in the vegoil sector.
• Palm Oil: Mild palm oil recovery helps underpin vegoil complex but hasn’t yet translated into sunflower market moves.
• Energy Markets: Higher crude oil prices—fueled by geopolitical risks—could provide downstream support to oilseed crops if sustained.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• Global Production: Ukraine remains the world’s top exporter, with a robust harvest. Russia’s sunflower output is also prominent, but nearby weather and possible policy changes are key watchpoints.
• Stocks & Inventories: EU crushers’ stocks are comfortable. Large on-farm canola and rapeseed stockpiles globally encourage risk of supply-driven market corrections.
• Speculative Positioning: Investors are trimming long exposure in soy, with sunflower market less speculative but not entirely immune to outside money flows.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Regional Effects

• Ukraine & Russia: Recent weather benign with little impact from frosts. Soil moisture sufficient ahead of winter dormancy, but attention will turn to post-winter development for 2026 crop.
• EU: Stable winter conditions in SE Europe; planting progress reported as normal.
• Argentina/Brazil/Southern Hemisphere: No significant threats currently, but risk of La Niña development remains for 2026.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Estimated 2025 Output (mln t)	Stocks (mln t)	Status
Ukraine	16.2	2.1	Strong Exports
Russia	17.0	3.0	Heavy Exports
EU	10.5	1.7	Ample Supply
Argentina	3.5	0.5	Stable/Recovering

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect stability in physical sunflower prices, barring major shocks in soy/rapeseed or energy markets.
• Monitor speculative flows in oilseeds for spill-over risk.
• EU and Ukrainian crushers should consider forward hedges for Q2/Q3 2026 if regional dryness persists in spring.
• Bullish triggers could arise from geopolitical shocks in Black Sea or supply-side weather surprises in Q1/Q2.
• Bearish triggers: renewed heavy selling pressure in global oilseeds or decisively higher farm-gate sales in Canada and Russia.
• Short-term: sideways to mildly firm bias, particularly for high-purity and confection kernels.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Ukrainian Black Sunflower Seeds FOB Odesa	0.56 EUR/kg	0.56–0.57 EUR/kg	Steady
Bulgarian Black Sunflower Seeds FCA Sofia	0.45 EUR/kg	0.45–0.46 EUR/kg	Flat
AFEX Dec 2025 (ZAR/t)	12,400	12,300–12,450	Sideways