Sunflower Market Outlook: Stable Scale, New Growth Drivers, and Shifting Demand

The global sunflower market stands at a pivotal moment entering the end of 2025. While overall market size remains stable, growth has notably slowed compared to previous years, largely due to headwinds in global macroeconomic conditions. Traditional export destinations such as the EU and North America have shown tepid demand increases, impacted by both inflationary pressures and underlying changes in sunflower applications. However, this moderation is offset by dynamic growth in emerging regions like Southeast Asia and the Middle East, where the expansion of processed food sectors and shifting consumer trends are accelerating sunflower seed and kernel imports.

On the supply side, historic producers like Ukraine and Russia are contending with continued output volatility, affected by weather and persistent geopolitical tensions, prompting both increased domestic use and heightened EU import interest in more sustainable product varieties (organic and non-GMO). This landscape requires exporters to act with agility, leverage supply chain efficiencies, and respond quickly to evolving regional needs to capitalize on opportunity—while preparing for risks that may emerge from future disruptions.

📈 Sunflower Prices at Major Origins (EUR, as of Dec 2025)

Product	Origin	City	Delivery	Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Sunflower Seeds (Black, 98%)	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.55	-0.01	Neutral/Soft
Sunflower Kernels (Meal)	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.54	-0.01	Neutral/Soft
Sunflower Seeds (Striped, 98%)	Bulgaria	Sofia	FOB	0.61	+0.10	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Stable but Slowing Growth: 2025 global sunflower kernel export volume is stable, though annual increases are marginal—reflecting faltering demand in mature Western markets and buoyant import growth in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
• Europe’s Role: Demand has increased in EU markets for sustainable and non-GMO sunflower products. Russia and Ukraine increase their imports for crushing/consumption due to internal production swings and export restrictions.
• Emerging Markets: Southeast Asia and Middle East offer new volume growth led by food industry expansion and dietary shifts toward healthy plant-based proteins.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Inventories: Global stock-to-use ratios remain moderate; Ukraine and Russia’s stockpiles have been affected by output volatility and corridor disruptions.
• Speculative Positioning: Hedge fund interest is neutral/slightly soft, reflecting balanced risk between supply tightness and tempered demand growth in key regions.
• USDA & Crop Reports: Latest USDA and oilseed reports flag caution on potential yield drag in Black Sea regions due to dry spring, but no extreme shortages have materialized.

🌦 Weather Outlook – Key Regions

• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Winter precipitation was normal but spring 2025 turned briefly drier than average. Upcoming ten-day forecasts predict slightly above-normal rainfall, lending support to recovery for late-planted fields but not alleviating all earlier stress.
• Europe: Western EU had timely rain post-planting, but Central/Eastern zones face mild heat and dryness. Impact: mixed yield outcomes, possibly supporting local premiums if weather stress persists.
• China: Northern Chinese production areas are forecast to be seasonally normal, supporting stable local output and firming competitive export offers.

🌐 Global Production & Inventory Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)*	Change vs. 2023/24	Stock Level Trend
Ukraine	15.3	-1%	Lower
Russia	16.1	-3%	Lower
EU	10.8	0%	Stable
China	4.1	+4%	Rising

*USDA/industry estimates

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor short-term weather developments in Black Sea for risk of late yield downgrades.
• Exporters: Enhance supply chain reliability and explore Southeast Asia/MENA for new volume growth.
• Buyers: Secure forward coverage for high-quality, non-GMO, and organic sunflower products, as premiums may widen if EU and China demand strengthens.
• Consider price dips (e.g., Black Sea/Ukraine) as medium-term buying opportunities given stable global demand and finite supply disruptions.

🗓 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Product Type	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast
Ukraine (Odesa)	Black Seeds	0.55	Flat/Soft
Bulgaria (Sofia)	Striped Seeds	0.61	Steady/Firm
China (Beijing)	Hulled Kernels	1.07	Steady

Market bias: Sideways-to-firm in Europe, soft undertone persists for Black Sea seeds