Sunflower Market: Prices Slide, Global Oilseeds Tension & What’s Next?

The global sunflower market is facing significant volatility as we approach the end of 2025. Market sentiment has shifted from a period of relative stability to one of uncertainty, highlighted by sharp price declines, changing demand patterns, and complex international dynamics. In Southern Africa, SAFEX sunflower futures registered a double-digit percentage drop this week, echoing weakness seen across the wider oilseed complex from canola to soybeans. This drop, fueled by aggressive profit-taking and position-closing ahead of the holiday season, points to the market’s sensitivity to external influences, from rising crude oil prices—driven by geopolitical flashpoints—to fluctuations in the Euro and export pressure from Brazil. Ukrainian exports remain a linchpin, keeping underlying supply ample and capping short-term rallies, though prices for both seeds and kernels remain steady in Europe. Meanwhile, the market closely tracks South American weather and the pace of the U.S. and Black Sea sunflower and soy harvests, anticipating further volatility should adverse growing conditions or logistical shocks arise. For traders and processors, the prevailing mood is defensive, but there are glimmers of support from the broader vegetable oil complex, hinting at possible stabilization in early 2026. Read on for a detailed look at exchange prices, market fundamentals, global production dynamics, and a near-term trading outlook.

📈 Prices: Sunflower Spot & Futures Markets

Exchange/Market	Contract	Close Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SAFEX (South Africa)	Dec 25	11,126 ZAR/t	-11.45%	Bearish
SAFEX (South Africa)	Jan 26	10,513 ZAR/t	-1.86%	Neutral/Bearish
SAFEX (South Africa)	Mar 26	9,452 ZAR/t	-0.52%	Neutral
Ukraine FOB (Odesa)	Black Seeds 98%	0.56 EUR/kg	0.0%	Stable
Ukraine FCA (Kyiv)	Black Seeds 98%	0.62 EUR/kg	0.0%	Stable
Ukraine FOB (Odesa)	Kernels (Meal)	0.55 EUR/kg	0.0%	Stable
China FOB (Beijing)	Black Seeds w/Stripes	1.47 EUR/kg	-3.9%	Bearish
Bulgaria FOB (Sofia)	Striped Seeds 98%	0.61 EUR/kg	0.0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 🌾 Large South American Soybean Crop: Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop is now forecast at a record 180.4 million tonnes, intensifying competition in vegetable oils and putting export price pressure on sunflower-related products.
• 🚢 Steady Ukrainian Exports: Ukraine remains active, with availability steady and sunflower seed and kernel prices flat week-on-week, reflecting competitive export programs and easing near-term tightness across Europe.
• 💧 Geopolitical/Logistical Risks: Rising crude oil prices—stemming from Venezuela and Black Sea tensions—lifted oilseed product markets but haven’t yet reversed the bearish mood for sunflowers.
• 📉 Speculative Positioning and Year-End Profit-Taking: With traders closing positions ahead of holidays and the “overbought” correction in rapeseed/canola, pressure increased on SAFEX sunflower contracts, deepening the recent selloff.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks & Flows

• 🛢️ Vegetable Oil Market: Recent support from higher crude oil and soybean oil prices is being offset by record South American supply and euro strength, limiting upsides in rapeseed and sunflower markets.
• 🏭 Crushing Demand: Both EU and Black Sea region crushers remain active, underpinned by biodiesel demand and strong feed use for sunflower meal.
• 📦 Global Sunflower Production Overview (Estimate, 2025):
  • Ukraine: 16-17 Mt (largest exporter)
  • Russia: ~16 Mt (heavy domestic processing)
  • EU: ~10-11 Mt (France, Romania, Bulgaria as key suppliers)
  • Argentina: ~4.2 Mt (some weather-related uncertainty)
• 🛒 Key Importers: EU, Turkey, India, China, and Middle East markets remain vital for export flows.

⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• Ukraine: Mild December so far, with adequate soil moisture in central/western regions. Outlook for January indicates slightly above-average precipitation, supportive for early agronomic preparations.
• South Africa: Recent reports confirm generally favorable weather, but some dryness persists in the northwestern growing regions, potentially slowing recovery after prior drought events. No major disruptions expected for main-field areas next week.
• Argentina: Patchy rainfall inland, improving soil conditions. Risks remain of localized dryness in the Buenos Aires and Chaco provinces.
• EU: Seasonably mild and wet, no acute risk to winter 2026 seedings.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024 Production (Mt)	2025 Proj. Production (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)
Ukraine	16.4	16.7	2.1
Russia	15.7	16.0	1.8
EU	11.0	10.9	1.3
Argentina	4.1	4.2	0.25
Turkey	1.8	2.0	0.1

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🐻 Short-term momentum remains weak: Sunflower seed and kernel prices are likely to stay under pressure given current abundant supplies and subdued demand growth.
• 📉 Monitor oilseed complex: Watch for any sharp changes in crude oil or soybean oil—significant reversals could stabilize or lift sunflower prices.
• 📊 Watch weather and South American export flows: Any adverse weather or logistical bottleneck in Brazil/Argentina can drive short-covering rallies in oilseeds.
• 🛡️ Processors may lock-in: Consider locking in physical coverage into Q1 if market dips persist and oil prices recover, supporting processed product values.
• 🔍 Speculators: Remain cautious—wait for signs of trend reversal or clear oversold technical signals before entering new long positions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Product	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
SAFEX (Dec 25)	Sunflower Seed	11,126 ZAR/t	11,050-11,200 ZAR/t	Stabilizing
Ukraine FOB (Odesa)	Sunflower Seeds (98%)	0.56 EUR/kg	0.55-0.57 EUR/kg	Flat
Ukraine FCA (Kyiv)	Sunflower Seeds (98%)	0.62 EUR/kg	0.61-0.63 EUR/kg	Stable
China FOB (Beijing)	Stripe Seed	1.47 EUR/kg	1.43-1.48 EUR/kg	Downside Risk