Sunflower Market: Prices Surge on Tight Supply and Fierce Processing Demand

Global sunflower markets are in the midst of an intense rally, underpinned by surging processor competition for limited supplies, especially in Ukraine. Despite seasonally high raw material availability, a significant reduction in 2025 oilseed production is tightening the balance. The combination of expanding processing capacity in Ukraine’s heartlands and sluggish, albeit positive, movements in the sunflower oil complex has created a unique dynamic: raw sunflower seed prices have outpaced those of processed goods. Recent Ukrainian CPT purchase prices have climbed to 28,400–29,500 UAH/t, with processors less reliant on sunflower now offering lower bids (~27,500–27,700 UAH/t). This price divergence signifies the strong influence of raw material scarcity amidst robust end-user demand.

European spot prices are broadly stable but relatively firm, reflecting tight Black Sea supplies and solid demand from crushers. With global stocks forecast lower in 2025, and short-term weather risks threatening yields in key growing regions, traders, crushers, and food companies need to brace for continued volatility. Want to trade? Check the current offers:

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Update Date	Sentiment
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	MD	Rheinfelden Herten, DE	FCA	0.48	0%	2025-12-12	Stable
Sunflower seeds (striped, 98%)	BG	Sofia, BG	FOB	0.61	0%	2025-12-12	Stable
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	BG	Sofia, BG	FCA	0.45	0%	2025-12-12	Stable
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	UA	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.56	+1.8%	2025-12-12	Bullish
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	UA	Odesa, UA	FCA	0.61	0%	2025-12-11	Bullish
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	UA	Kyiv, UA	FCA	0.62	0%	2025-12-11	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukrainian Production: 2025 sunflower crop forecast significantly lower due to adverse weather and reduced planting area.
• Processor Demand: Higher processing capacity in central and southern Ukraine has accelerated the drawdown of available stocks.
• Competition: Intense rivalry for physical seed among crushers is inflating domestic purchase prices.
• Product Substitution: Some processors are switching to soy or rapeseed, limiting upside for sunflower – but overall seed supply still under pressure.
• Exports & Trade: Stable European demand and competitive Black Sea FOB offers have kept delivered prices firm in main EU destinations.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global Production: USDA projects world sunflower seed output down 5% YoY in 2025, led by Ukraine and Russia.
• Stock-to-Use Ratio: Major exporters’ stocks forecast to reach multi-year lows by mid-2025.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains short on sunflower oil futures, but commercial hedgers are actively buying.
• Processor Margins: Lower seed availability is squeezing crusher margins; sunflower oil price growth lags raw seed price rises.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Ukraine: Current conditions remain favorable in Western Ukraine (mild, scattered showers), but dryness persists in Southern regions, posing risk to late-planted fields.
• Russia: Drier-than-normal conditions in the South may trim yield prospects, though Volga/Urals crops healthier than average.
• EU: France and Hungary have seen positive rainfall, boosting late season prospects; Bulgaria remains at slight drought risk.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Table

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	Change YoY	2024/25 Stocks (Mt)
Ukraine	12.0	-10%	1.2
Russia	16.2	-7%	1.7
EU	10.1	-3%	1.0
Argentina	3.8	+2%	0.3
Turkey	1.7	0%	0.2

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Near-term supply tightness in Ukraine supports further price gains, especially for spot/nearby sales.
• European crushers should secure supply contracts early – late-season risks remain on both weather and local logistics.
• Watch for shifts in processor demand toward rapeseed/soy, which could cap sunflower’s upside mid-winter.
• Monitor Black Sea logistics and export corridor updates for freight cost implications.
• Price volatility likely to persist into Q1 as global stocks tighten and demand remains robust.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Today (EUR/kg)	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days
Odesa, UA (FOB)	0.56	0.57	0.57	0.58
Kyiv, UA (FCA)	0.62	0.62	0.63	0.63
Sofia, BG (FOB)	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.61

Spot market still moving higher. Chart updated daily: