Sunflower Market Rally: Global Price Jumps, New Biofuel Rules & Weather in Focus

The sunflower market is showing increased volatility, with prices rising across key origins and active trading for forward contracts. Surging biofuel policy developments in Europe, changing regulations for plant oils as fuel, and steady demand in the confection and bakery sectors are shaping market sentiment. Meanwhile, the global sunflower seed and oil market is affected by growing competition from alternative oilseeds, notably soybeans, and trading participants are closely analyzing the interplay between futures markets, physical prices, and policy changes.

Current physical offers from China, Ukraine, and Bulgaria show modest week-on-week gains in selected products, with major import hubs watching both new-crop potential and forward commitments for 2025/26. Supply from the Black Sea region remains pivotal despite ongoing logistics and geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants are also monitoring USDA and NASS data on global oilseed processing, export sales, and speculative activity, as these elements are critical for forecasting both short- and medium-term trends. European policy changes expected in 2027 may influence planting and forward contracts, creating additional incentive for long-term hedging. Climatic conditions in the Black Sea, EU, and China are in focus, as variable weather could affect the next harvest and stock levels.

📈 Prices: Sunflower Seed & Kernel Markets

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Last Price	Change	Date
Sunflower seeds, black with stripe	CN	Beijing	FOB	1.53	1.57	-0.04	2025-12-11
Sunflower kernels, confection	CN	Beijing	FOB	1.05	1.07	-0.02	2025-12-11
Sunflower kernels, bakery	CN	Beijing	FOB	1.06	1.05	+0.01	2025-12-11
Sunflower seeds, black	UA	Odesa	FOB	0.55	0.56	-0.01	2025-12-05
Sunflower kernels, meal	UA	Odesa	FOB	0.54	0.55	-0.01	2025-12-05
Sunflower seeds, striped	BG	Sofia	FOB	0.61	0.51	+0.10	2025-12-04
Sunflower seeds, black	UA	Kyiv	FCA	0.62	0.61	+0.01	2025-12-04
Sunflower kernels, bakery	UA	Dnipro	FCA	0.93	0.93	0.00	2025-12-02
Sunflower kernels, confection	BG	Sofia	FCA	1.22	1.22	0.00	2025-12-02

📉 Futures Market: AFEX Sunflower Contracts (ZAR/t)

Contract	Prev. Close	Open	High	Low	Last	Change	Change %	Volume
Dec 25	10,500	10,599	10,655	10,549.8	10,645	+145	+1.36%	232
Jan 26	10,365	10,365	10,525	10,365	10,525	+160	+1.52%	15
Mar 26	9,448	9,525	9,550	9,476	9,488	+40	+0.42%	274
Apr 26	9,000	9,000	9,000	9,000	9,000	0	0.00%	0
May 26	9,038	9,100	9,130	9,080	9,080	+42	+0.46%	125
Jul 26	9,235	9,235	9,265	9,235	9,265	+30	+0.32%	0
Sep 26	9,385	9,385	9,415	9,385	9,415	+30	+0.32%	0
Dec 26	9,580	9,580	9,580	9,580	9,580	0	0.00%	0

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Europe: New German biofuel laws (THG-Quote) will increase demand for rapeseed and sunflower oil post-2027, improving long-run demand outlook. However, caps on food-use crops may restrict some volume growth in the short term.
• Black Sea: Ukraine remains a critical exporter, with recent price firmness linked to shipping logistics and regional harvest uncertainties.
• China: Stable procurement but competition from soybean oil is limiting price gains in sunflower oil.
• USDA & NASS: Global oilseed processing is at a record high, especially for soybeans; sunflower oil markets will need to stay competitive.
• Speculation: CFTC data shows rising net-long positions in oilseeds, supporting futures prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global Production (2025/26 Est.): Trend recovery in Black Sea, stable in EU and China. Weather volatility could impact next season’s outlook.
• Stocks: 2024/25 global sunflower oil stocks remain adequate but show a mild drawdown, mainly driven by firm demand in Asia and EU.
• Trade Flows: Stable exports from Ukraine, some new-crop bookings from China, strong ongoing demand from EU for both oil and kernels.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Ukraine/Black Sea: Near-normal winter so far, some concerns over late sowing and soil moisture. Watch for spring rainfall outlook.
• EU (Bulgaria/Romania/Hungary): Mild temperatures, average precipitation. Crop emergence largely satisfactory.
• China: Cold snaps in northern regions, otherwise stable weather pattern.

Weather risks for 2026-harvest now slightly elevated; spring conditions will be decisive.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Table

Country	Production (Mt)	Stock Change YoY (%)	Main Export/Import Flows
Ukraine	16.2	-3%	Exports to EU, China, MENA
Russia	15.4	+2%	Exports to EU, Turkey
EU	10.7	0%	Internal use & imports from Black Sea
China	2.9	0%	Imports from Ukraine, Russia
Argentina	3.2	+1%	Regional & EU export

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟢 Buyers: Take advantage of spot opportunities in Black Sea, but secure part of 2025/26 requirements as forward prices are rising.
• 🟡 Sellers/Exporters: Consider hedging larger volumes out to mid-2026, especially with policy-driven demand support building in EU.
• 🔴 Industry/Crushers: Monitor alternative oilseed spreads (soy/sunflower); policy and weather risks suggest higher price volatility ahead.
• ⚠️ Watchlist: EU’s 2027 biofuel demand expansion, Black Sea logistics, and spring planting conditions in Ukraine/EU.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Region/Exchange	Spot Price (EUR/t)	3-Day Change	Sentiment
Black Sea FOB	550	+1%	Bullish
China FOB	1,530	0%	Stable/Firm
AFEX Dec25	10,645 (ZAR/t)	+1.5%	Bullish
Bulgaria (FOB Striped)	610	+3%	Rising