Sunflower Market Shifts: Prices Firm as Global Pressure Builds – 3-Day Outlook

The sunflower market is currently experiencing a distinct interplay of regional resilience and international headwinds. Despite sustained demand in the European rapeseed sector, the overall oilseed market is pressured by global events, namely the declining North American canola market, soft US soybean pricing, and continued slow Chinese buying. Low EU imports are forcing crushers to source more from the domestic market, fortifying spot sunflower demand. However, the global oilseeds backdrop remains fragile, with poor canola sentiment in Winnipeg driving futures to eight-month lows, largely due to unresolved trade disputes with China. Conversely, European processors and crushers are grappling with tightness as cheaper imports fade. Meanwhile, sunflower deliveries from Black Sea origins (primarily Ukraine and Bulgaria) dominate EU supply, showing narrow price ranges but steady export flows. On the production side, mixed weather in key Black Sea regions is fostering some uncertainty for the coming months, potentially affecting yields and exportable surpluses.

The broader oilseed context is also relevant: US soybeans are struggling to rebound, with US exports to China underperforming expectations. WASDE projections suggest higher ending stocks, weighing further on oilseed prices. In this landscape, sunflower seed and kernel prices have been stable to slightly firmer, defying weak palm and soya markets thanks to regional supply/demand dynamics and limited inventory build. Looking ahead, critical weather forecasts and geopolitical stability in the Black Sea region will remain decisive for sunflower market direction.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Delivery	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Date
Sunflower seeds	Black, 98%	UA (Odesa)	FOB	UA	0.55	0.56	2025-12-05
Sunflower kernels	Meal	UA (Odesa)	FOB	UA	0.54	0.55	2025-12-05
Sunflower seeds	Striped, 98%	BG (Sofia)	FOB	BG	0.61	0.51	2025-12-04

SAFEX Sunflower Futures (ZAR/t) – Key Contracts

Contract	Last Close	Change	% Change
Dec 25	10,500	142	+1.35%
Jan 26	10,365	165	+1.59%
Mar 26	9,448	47	+0.50%
Mai 26	9,038	-52	-0.58%
Jul 26	9,235	11	+0.12%
Sep 26	9,385	8	+0.09%

Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish near term, underpinned by limited Black Sea inventories and stable local procurement. Downside risks remain on further pressure from external oilseed markets.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU crushers are increasingly relying on domestic sunflower due to constrained imports and high crushers’ competition.
• Ukraine remains the primary supplier to Europe, with recent border disruptions limited but a focus on ongoing stability.
• Global stocks in oilseeds (especially soy and canola) are expected to rise per WASDE, but sunflower sees ongoing export support from Black Sea and steady consumer demand in the EU.
• Chinese import tariffs continue to suppress canola flows from Canada, tightening available global vegoil supplies.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA’s WASDE report forecasts rising oilseed inventories, though sunflower remains firm on tighter EU supply.
• Black Sea (UA, RU, BG) yields average to solid, but tricky weather outlook for Dec–Feb could alter 2026 supply estimates.
• Speculative buying is moderate; commercial end-user buying is steady to strong on dips.
• SAFEX futures reflect moderate optimism; EU and Black Sea spot deals are transacted briskly, especially in peak purity/quality lots.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine/Bulgaria: Mild December so far, but risk of below-average temperatures and scattered frosts in the coming week. Current soil moisture is adequate for dormancy, but adverse swings could impact overwintering crops.
• Russia: Stable, early winter onset—no major threats expected yet.
• Western Europe: Wet weather and flooding in France/Germany risk some delays in fieldwork and winter preparations, but sunflower stocks mostly secured.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	‘23/‘24 Production (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Key Export Growth YoY
Ukraine	~16.0	Mid-high	Stable
Russia	~17.0	High	+2%
EU (total)	10.2	Low	Flat
Bulgaria	2.1	Low	Stable
Argentina	3.4	Low	Stable

Note: UA, RU, BG remain decisive in global sunflower supply-chain stability.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Secure short/medium-term coverage as volatility persists and local stocks tighten, but avoid heavy forward commitments amid global oilseed uncertainty.
• Sellers: Gradually liquidate inventory on local highs—expect more buying in spot/nearby shipments, especially high spec kernels and seeds.
• Monitor: Black Sea logistics and EU freight rates, as disruptions cause price spikes.
• Watch: WASDE updates, EU import flows, Chinese trade talks, and South American planting weather for global sentiment triggers.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Dec 9–12, 2025)

Exchange/Origin	Type	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)
Odesa, UA – FOB	Sunflower seeds (black)	0.54 – 0.56
Sofia, BG – FOB	Sunflower seeds (striped)	0.60 – 0.62
Beijing, CN – FOB	Kernels (confection)	1.05 – 1.10
SAFEX	Sunflower futures (ZAR/t)	9,400 – 10,650

Overall, sunflower prices are forecast to remain stable to slightly firmer, supported by strong EU/Black Sea demand and relative supply tightness, even as the global oilseed complex struggles.